There is no low-level fertility and development trap

Summary The theory of the low-level equilibrium trap asserts that an increase in income stimulates population growth sufficiently so that the additional people 'eat up' the 'surplus' over subsistence, and hence drive the level of income back to subsistence. Originally the theory referred primarily to mortality, but nowadays its application is to fertility. In the long-run equilibrium context in which the theory is ordinarily presented, the fact that the long-run elasticity of fertility with respect to income is negative in less developed countries fatally contradicts the accepted version of the trap. But to give every chance for trap theory to be meaningful, the paper presents a period-by-period analysis, embodying larger-than-observed positive elasticities during the early years and the logically necessary counterbalancing negative elasticities during the later years. These elasticities are combined with consumption and production figures for various age groups to estimate the effect in each year after the windfall, and altogether. The results show that even under assumptions not charitable to the conclusion of this paper, additional children do not even come close to 'eating up' the increase in income which induced their births, so that the trap theory is falsified.     

An analysis of simple counting methods for ordering incomplete ordinal data

Measurement in the social sciences often involves an attempt to completely order a set of entities on the basis of an underlying attribute. However, limitations of the measurement process often prevent complete empirical determination of the desired ordering. Nevertheless, the ordinal data obtained from the measurement process can be used in attempting to recover or construct more of the underlying order than is provided by the data. Previous research (Fishburn and Gehrlein, 1974a) has shown that a simple one-stage construction method, referred to as the cardinal rule, is fairly effective in correctly identifying ordered pairs in the underlying linear order that are not identified by the measurement process. The present paper re-examines the cardinal rule from the perspective of construction methods based on simple counting measures derived from the data, and argues that it is the best one-stage method in this class when a natural monotonicity assumption holds for the measurement process. The paper then examines two-stage construction rules that are based on the cardinal rule and the simple counting measures. It is shown that one of the two-stage rules gives better overall results than does the cardinal rule by itself.     

Specification of nonverbal behaviors for clinical assessment

Nine categories of nonverbal behavior (extremity movements, self-manipulations, facial expression, posture, orienting, gestures, voice quality/tone, speech rate/pressure, and sense of timing) were tested in a standardized role play situation of social skills. Each category was judged using a new midi-level system of assessment which permitted specification of component behaviors but allowed observers to make single ratings at the ends of videotaped episodes. The midi-level measurements were as reliable and practical as more traditional global measures of social skill and social anxiety. Midis were superior to globals (i.e., single overall ratings of skill and anxiety) in terms of predicting physiological indices of social anxiety. Voice quality/tone and sense of timing appeared to be the best predictors of criterion social skill measures and self-manipulations, extremity movements, and gestures had the highest weights in predicting criterion measures of social anxiety.     

Ethnomethodology and Marxism: Their use for critical theorizing

Conclusion Each theory and, ultimately, school of theorizing exposes and criticizes the theorizing of others, and at the same time contains false or misleading statements. Theory as it is must rest on some presuppositions. Thus, Marxism exposes the flaws and lies of capitalism while positing another world view-Marxism—which it does not treat critically. Marxism also provides a critique of positivistic thinking. In The Grundrisse, Marx engages in a dialogue with economists and philosophers of his day. His theory emerges out of the rejection of their theory. Ethnomethodology can be seen as critique of positivism, too. It can also tell us something about Marxism, as some of its concerns are similar, although the methods are dissimilar. At the same time, ethnomethodology denies us certain information about itself. Theorists, then, question others and not themselves. Theory can be seen as a product of inquiry; the theorist shows only the product and hides what made the product. Indeed, just as the statistician reveals a correlation between two variables and omits all the common sense reasoning that went into the process (a method of theorizing ethnomethodologists criticize), so does the ethnomethodologist or Marxist omit, to a great extent, the process of theorizing involved.Thus, while neither form of theorizing, taken literally, can be critical (for to be critical, one must sometimes suspend belief in one's own theory, bracket it, or see it as strange), either form, if taken metaphorically (and in a way that is unfaithful to Marxism and ethnomethodology), can be used for critique.The ethnomethodological and Marxist critiques of social information, as in their processual framework and their emphasis on the thinking individual, provide critiques of contemporary society and an impetus to try to change it. Links between the two schools of theorizing would perhaps help overcome the deficiencies of each mode of theorizing. Taylor, Walton, and Young advocated (although they never carried it out) building a bridge in criminology so to speak, between ethnomethodology and Marxism. The advantage would be to enable us to escape from the straitjacket of an economic determinism and the relativism of some subjective approaches to a theory of contradiction in a social structure which recognizes in deviance the acts of men (men and women) in the process of actively making, rather than passively taking, the external world.Our special thanks to Ishna Abrams, Igor Freund, and Peter Schwarzburg for their tireless assistance.     

Gender‐Sensitive Research in a Chinese Community

The aim of this article is to foster an awareness of the need for gender‐sensitive research in the context of the methodological and ethical challenges posed by such research. We trace the development of gender sensitivity and masculinity in social work practice and research and connect this to an overview of the issues posed by research on sensitive topics. Reflecting on a research project involving Chinese male sexual abuse survivors, we draw conclusions illustrating and proposing a range of methodological practices and ethical safeguards. We underscore the importance of gender‐sensitivity in performing research on sensitive topics with men in a Chinese community.     

Welche Lohnungleichheiten sind gerecht?Which income inequalities are considered just?

This article examines the reasons for inequalities of earnings in Germany and the extent to which these inequalities are considered to be legitimate. We focus on three major inequality-generating factors derived from labour market and inequality research: individual, firm-specific and structural factors. We then investigate empirically the importance of these factors in the emergence of differences of earnings and the extent to which employees consider the rents of each factor to be just or unjust. Analyses based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel reveal that wage differentials are considered as just if they can be attributed to individual factors (level of education, professional experience). In contrast, wage differentials due to firm-specific factors (atypical employment, seniority-based pay) and structural factors (certain occupational groups/industries, differences between regions) are the major reasons for perceived earnings injustice. The results of this study will contribute to the debate concerning increasing wage inequalities and reveal that distinguishing between just and unjust inequalities is essential, especially in discussions regarding the social or political consequences of this trend.     

ECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF THE TIMING OF PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT FORMATIONS AND ENLARGEMENTS

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have proliferated over the past 60 years. While a small number of recent studies have examined empirically the economic determinants of the likelihood of a pair of countries having a PTA, this study explains empirically the timing of all PTA formations and enlargements from 1950 through 2006 using duration analysis. Our main and novel goal is to predict (in‐ and out‐of‐sample) a substantive share of these 1,560 PTA events using a parsimonious model with mainly economic variables, taking selection dynamics into account. Our analysis reveals that we can predict correctly in‐sample the actual year of entry into force for 26% of the 1,560 bilateral PTA formations/enlargements in the period 1950–2006 among 10,518 pairings of 146 countries using only a few economic and political variables. Moreover, we can predict correctly in‐sample 57% of these PTA events within a 10‐year window leading up to the event using this model. The model also performs well out‐of‐sample for the near term (82%), but not if the out‐of‐sample period is very long. We conclude with an evaluation of the model's ability to predict the timing of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the European Union's formation and enlargements, and the model's ten most likely post‐2006 PTA events. (JEL F14, F15)     

Relations Between Alphabetized Name Order and Nomination Counts in Peer Nomination Measures

Peer nominations, a central method for measuring peer relationships in developmental research, typically involve asking children or adolescents to choose peers who fit various criteria from an alphabetized roster of classmates or grade‐mates. Although such measures have been used for decades, very little research has investigated the effects of alphabetical name order on the number of nominations received by peers. This study collected peer nominations for 20 items among 607 eighth grade participants in two schools. Regression analyses showed that earlier name order significantly predicted higher nomination counts for eight of the items, and explained over 5 percent of the variance in four affective variables (friendship, acceptance, acquaintanceship, and received liking). Across variables, name order effects were negatively correlated with internal reliability of nominations, implying that order effects may be related to the consensus of the peer group. Name order also had a minimal effect on inter‐correlations among a subset of variables. Implications and concrete recommendations for controlling and reducing name order effects in future research are discussed.