Long term planning for coal

The Interim Report of the Coal Industry Examination was published in June 1964, representing the result of Tripartite discussions between the Government, the National Coal Board and the unions. One of the principal conclusions of this report was that the government endorsed the Board's long-term ‘Plan for Coal’ as a broad strategy for the industry. It is perhaps appropriate, therefore, to review at the present time the kind of considerations which needed to be taken into account in drawing up a long-term ‘Plan for Coal’.     

An examination of the relationship between child sexual offending and psychopathy

The participants in this study were adult males (N = 111) who were accused of various sexual crimes against children 16 years of age or younger, and who were evaluated at a state forensic facility in a large Midwestern state. This study examined the relationship of Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) scores to type of child sexual offender (same sex extrafamilial, opposite sex extrafamilial, and incest offenders), the presence of violence during the most recent child sexual offense, and criminal versatility. Results indicated that those sexual offenders who employed physical violence against the children they abused were significantly more psychopathic than those who did not. No significant differences were found between types of child sexual offenders or with general criminal versatility.     

A robust process capability index

The existing process capability indices (PCI's) assume that the distribution of the process being investigated is normal. For non-normal distributions, PCI's become unreliable in that PCI's may indicate the process is capable when in fact it is not. In this paper, we propose a new index which can be applied to any distribution. The proposed indexC_f:, is directly related to the probability of non-conformance of the process. For a given random sample, the estimation of C_f boils down to estimating non-parametrically the tail probabilities of an unknown distribution. The approach discussed in this paper is based on the works by Pickands (1975) and Smith (1987). We also discuss the construction of bootstrap confidence intervals of C_f: based on the so-called accelerated bias correction method (BC _a:). Several simulations are carried out to demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of C_f:. Two real life data sets are analyzed using the proposed index.     

On the Alias Method for Generating Random Variables from a Discrete Distribution

The alias method of Walker is a clever, new, fast method for generating random variables from an arbitrary, specified discrete distribution. A simple probabilistic proof is given, in terms of mixtures, that the method works for any discrete distribution with a finite number of outcomes. A more efficient version of the table-generating portion of the method is described. Finally, a brief discussion on efficiency of the method is given. We believe that the generality, speed, and simplicity of the method make it attractive for use in generating discrete random variables.     

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United States, is supplemented with other variables describing the storm event, the spatial distribution of the sensitive characteristics of the exposed population, and built environment at the county level. The catastrophic flash floods of May 2015 in the states of Texas and Oklahoma are used as a case study to map the dynamics of the estimated probabilistic human risk on a daily scale. The results indicate the importance of time‐ and space‐dependent human vulnerability and risk assessment for short‐fuse flood events. The need for more systematic human impact data collection is also highlighted to advance impact‐based predictive models for flash flood casualties using machine‐learning approaches in the future.