A spatial mixed-effects regression model for electoral data

Statistical Methods & Applications - On 4th March 2018, elections took place in Italy for the two Chambers of the Parliament. Many newspapers emphasized the victory of the 5 Star Movement (5SM)...     

Climate Change Communication: Examining the Social and Cognitive Barriers to Productive Environmental Communication

Objectives. This study explores the efficacy of visual appeals that may be used to communicate environmental risk.Methods. To better understand the social and cognitive barriers present in environmental risk communication associated with climate change, we conducted a series of six focus groups. Groups were asked to view images of environmental issues and select the best representation of their feelings out of a range of preselected emotions. While further research is required, preliminary investigation based on the focus groups suggests several themes. Results. First, an individual's familiarity with both an area and an event will decrease the individual's perception of urgency; conversely, the participants expressed greater concern for events that were local and new—in other words, familiarity diminishes urgency, while emergent problems create alacrity. Second, participants expressed a sentiment of tacit blame, in which the participant's own contribution to the issue received less emphasis when ascribing fault. Last, the participants reacted positively toward messages that emphasized a hopeful and solution-based narrative and were seemingly less motivated by images that relied on fear-based messaging. Conclusions. Preliminary findings suggest that hopeful, solution-based messaging may be more effective in facilitating pro-environmental behavior than either fear- or guilt-based appeals.     

Variance reduction of estimators arising from Metropolis–Hastings algorithms

The Metropolis–Hastings algorithm is one of the most basic and well-studied Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It generates a Markov chain which has as limit distribution the target distribution by simulating observations from a different proposal distribution. A proposed value is accepted with some particular probability otherwise the previous value is repeated. As a consequence, the accepted values are repeated a positive number of times and thus any resulting ergodic mean is, in fact, a weighted average. It turns out that this weighted average is an importance sampling-type estimator with random weights. By the standard theory of importance sampling, replacement of these random weights by their (conditional) expectations leads to more efficient estimators. In this paper we study the estimator arising by replacing the random weights with certain estimators of their conditional expectations. We illustrate by simulations that it is often more efficient than the original estimator while in the case of the independence Metropolis–Hastings and for distributions with finite support we formally prove that it is even better than the “optimal” importance sampling estimator.     

Copula variation in Asturian Spanish and the multidimensionality of stancetaking in interaction

In this study, I analyze the relationship between stance, style and sociolinguistic variation in a situation of language contact between Asturian and Spanish in the urban areas of Asturias (Spain). Using different types of data, and a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative methods, I explore the interactional functions of Asturian ‘ye’ (‘he/she/it is’), a salient marker of Asturian identity, and how the stances indexed by this form – low epistemic commitment, lack of seriousness and social solidarity – are connected to more enduring social identities. In the analysis, I provide a possible operationalization of stances that takes into consideration the multidimensionality of the stancetaking process. I also show how examining stance can provide a tool to move beyond monolithic representations of social meaning, and dichotomous distinctions between standard and non‐standard variants.     

Operationalizing De-commodification and De-familization Outcomes via the Relative Poverty Approach: An Application to Western European Countries

This article develops an approach with which to operationalise the outcomes of de-commodification and de-familisation processes. Since the de-commodification and de-familisation concepts share an emphasis on ‘a socially acceptable standard of living for individuals’ with the notion of relative poverty, the income-poverty indicator has been adopted to develop pertinent national rates. In particular, since de-commodification outcomes concern people with a socially acceptable standard of living independently of sale of their labour power, the national proportions of individuals with an equivalised disposable income above the poverty threshold who have stopped working have been accounted for. On the other hand, given that de-familisation outcomes regard individuals with a socially acceptable standard of living aside from family relationships, the national percentages of persons who actually live alone, or simulated as living alone, with an equivalised disposable income above the poverty threshold have been considered. Moreover, exploiting the equivalised disposable income computation, pertinent micro-simulations are developed to capture the role of the state and the family in de-commodification outcomes, and the contribution of the market and the state to de-familisation outcomes. On the basis of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, an empirical application of this approach is then provided. Specifically, data for 16 European countries were used to compute the above-mentioned national rates. Furthermore, we checked whether our outcome figures exhibited any correspondence with the country-groups deriving from the classic welfare regime typologies or more in general with the measures resulting from the social policy structure.     

Social administration revisited: Traditions of observational fieldwork and their value

This article revisits traditions of observational fieldwork inside welfare institutions which formed a core part of past social administration teaching and research in the United Kingdom. Drawing on archive materials, a historical exploration of journal contents and some supplementary interview data, it is argued that such approaches—though carried out in a less theoretically pluralist, more vocationally‐oriented time for the subject of social policy and administration—were at the same time valuable in facilitating critical perspectives on how welfare bureaucracies work. Their popularity is potentially rising once again in social policy teaching. Where cultivated alongside an appreciation of theory and where carefully integrated into university social policy departments' wider pedagogical and curricular strategies, they may be of benefit today to students and more senior scholars alike.     

Distorted Views Through the Glass Ceiling: The Construction of Women's Understandings of Promotion and Senior Management Positions

The article explores the issue of whether women's under‐representation in senior management positions can be explained in part by the messages they are given about the promotion process and the requirements of senior jobs. Through interviews with over 50 male and female junior and senior managers in a UK high street bank, issues relating to the required personality and behaviour characteristics seen to be associated with success and with the long hours culture emerged as important. In many cases men and women identified the same issues but the significance of them for their own decision‐making and the way others interpreted their behaviour varied — particularly in relation to the perceived incompatibility between active parenting and senior roles. The findings provide an account of the context in which women make career choices which highlights the limitations of analyses which see women's absence as the result either of procedural discrimination or women's primary orientation towards home and family. The findings also highlight the problems of treating commitments towards gender equality as an isolated issue and stress the importance of understanding responses to policies and ways of achieving change within the broader context of an analysis of the organization's culture.     

The Assessment of Susceptibility to Emotional Contagion: A Contribution to the Italian Adaptation of the Emotional Contagion Scale

The Emotional Contagion Scale (ECS; Doherty in J Nonverbal Behav 21(2):131–154, 1997) is a self-report instrument assessing susceptibility to emotional contagion. The study was aimed at examining its dimensionality, reliability, and validity in the Italian context. It was completed by 541 young adults (45 % men) in Study 1 and 649 young adults (40 % men) in Study 2. The results of a series of confirmatory factor analyses showed that a bi-factor model, with one general factor and four specific factors was supported. The general and specific factors were differentially related to self-other differentiation, empathy, emotional fragility, masculinity, and femininity. Notwithstanding, the results posited some questions about the ECS reliability and convergent validity. Implications for scoring of the ECS and the need to revise it are discussed.