Adolescents Exiting Homelessness Over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal data collected from 183 newly homeless adolescents followed over 2 years in Los Angeles, CA. In support of RAAM, unadjusted odds of exiting at 2 years and stably exiting over 2 years revealed that engagement with prosocial peers, maternal social support, and continued school attendance all promoted exiting behaviors. Simultaneously, exposure to family violence and reliance on shelter services discouraged stably exiting behaviors. Implications for family‐based interventions are proposed.     

Do displaced workers lose occupational prestige?

Worker displacement has become a common feature of employment in the “flexible economy.” While studies of income losses and the duration of unemployment after displacement abound, and popular accounts argue that workers often lose status, less empirical attention has been paid to the quality or prestige of employment displaced workers are able to secure after a downsizing event. This paper helps to fill this gap in the literature by focusing on changes in occupational prestige among a nationally representative sample of displaced workers who became reemployed from the January 2004 Displaced Workers and Employee Tenure Supplement of the Current Population Survey. Our findings show that displaced workers with higher levels of education, net of other factors, fared significantly better than others in job quality upon reemployment, highlighting the importance of education in retaining status and privilege in the new economy.     

Nash equilibria for voter models with randomly perceived positions

We introduce a voter model in which parties’ intended policy positions are perceived by voters with some random uncertainty. We prove that for a total of three parties, under some mild assumptions, this model has a Nash equilibrium in which all three parties attempt to contest the election with the median policy. This contrasts with Duverger’s Law, which asserts that only two parties will contest the election at all, consistent with some different voter models.     

Problem and Pathological Gambling in a Sample of Casino Patrons

Relatively few studies have examined gambling problems among individuals in a casino setting. The current study sought to examine the prevalence of gambling problems among a sample of casino patrons and examine alcohol and tobacco use, health status, and quality of life by gambling problem status. To these ends, 176 casino patrons were recruited by going to a Southern California casino and requesting that they complete an anonymous survey. Results indicated the following lifetime rates for at-risk, problem, and pathological gambling: 29.2, 10.7, and 29.8%. Differences were found with regards to gambling behavior, and results indicated higher rates of smoking among individuals with gambling problems, but not higher rates of alcohol use. Self-rated quality of life was lower among pathological gamblers relative to non-problem gamblers, but did not differ from at-risk or problem gamblers. Although subject to some limitations, our data support the notion of higher frequency of gambling problems among casino patrons and may suggest the need for increased interventions for gambling problems on-site at casinos.     

The Role of the Community in the Implementation of the EPA's Rule on Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accidental Release Prevention

Regulations under the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) include requirements for preventing accidental chemical releases. Section 112(r) of the CAAA, the Accidental Release Provisions, requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to develop and implement regulations for preventing accidental releases to the air of regulated substances and to minimize the consequences of releases that do occur. The regulations require regulated facilities to have in place the structural elements of a sound process safety program, and to practice, document, and communicate the elements of their program. The rule requires also that registered facilities calculate and make available worst case accidental chemical release information. The rule does not set a level of risk that a facility must achieve after it takes the required compliance steps, the level of risk a community must accept, the limit of consequences the community might suffer from a worst case chemical release, nor the specific actions a community must take in its response plan. These are issues that local communities and local officials must decide. Because the regulation involves the community in many unsettled risk issues the Wharton School initiated a project within the City Philadelphia to evaluate the proposition that productive dialogue on the implementation of the Rule and resolution of unsettled risk issues can take place in advance of a crisis occasioned by a major accidental release. This paper describes the steps taken by Wharton to bring together various stakeholders in the community to explore the implementation of the rule and the reaction of those stakeholders to be involved in such a process. It outlines some principal choices communities will have to make in order to implement 112(r) and explains some of the dilemmas associated with these choices. It describes the stakeholder-based implementation effort being undertaken in Philadelphia in the hope that others may benefit from what has been learned there.     

AN IMPLICIT/EXPLICIT APPROACH TO MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO FOREST MANAGEMENT PLANNING*

Implicit utility/value maximization and explicit utility/value maximization are identified as two major classes of multiobjective optimization methods. Explicit methods have the advantage of being able to fully exploit the power of existing mathematical programming algorithms. A disadvantage is the high information burden they place on the decision maker. Implicit (i.e., interactive) methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses: they require less extensive information but do not lend themselves as easily to use with optimizing algorithms. We develop a hybrid implicit/explicit approach that attempts to combine the advantages of both by embedding within the implicit method a procedure that periodically formulates an approximate explicit representation of the multiobjective problem and then solves it optimally without user interaction. Operationally, this requires the frequent solution of two nonlinear programs. We also report on the implementation of this method in a forest management decision support system. This is a completely microcomputer-based implementation currently undergoing field testing for use in planning the timing and intensity of timber harvests on non-industrial forests in the southeastern United States. The system has been selected as a replacement for an earlier multiobjective program (Harrison and Rosenthal [28]) used by over 1,800 landowners.     

Battling for Survival, Battling for Moral Clarity: "Illegality" and Illness in the Everyday Struggles of Undocumented HIV+ Women Migrant Workers in Tel Aviv

Undocumented migrant workers living with HIV/AIDS in Israel, like their counterparts elsewhere, are doubly abject due to their lack of legal status on one hand and their ill health on the other. Unlike Israeli citizens living with HIV/AIDS, who can access an array of state funded treatments and support services, undocumented migrant workers living with HIV/AIDS are marginalized both by the state's exclusive immigration regime and by its efforts to shake off responsibility for their health needs. At the same time, HIV treatment and care are generally unavailable in migrants' countries of origin. Despite the state's exclusionary orientation and in contradiction of official policies, certain forms of HIV treatment are available to undocumented migrants through the day‐to‐day efforts of a small array of activist Israeli NGOs, (state‐employed) doctors, and state officials. The tension between these simultaneous, oppositional processes of exclusion and inclusion generate a “gray area”— a zone of competing values, claims and interests‐ in which undocumented migrants living with HIV/AIDS and these other stakeholders search for new options and possibilities while continually taking pains to protect their own varied, and often competing, interests. Actors thus constantly bargain with laws, health policies, and one another in a collective battle not only over migrants' chances of survival, but also over the rationality and the morality underlying the state's “and their own” decisions and choices. Anchored within this complex, indeterminate zone, the present article draws upon ethnographic field research conducted among undocumented HIV+ migrant women in Tel Aviv to explore some of the stakes, mechanisms, and outcomes of these complicated, high stakes negotiation processes.     

Decrypting classical cipher text using Markov chain Monte Carlo

We investigate the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to attack classical ciphers. MCMC has previously been used to break simple substitution ciphers. Here, we extend this approach to transposition ciphers and to substitution-plus-transposition ciphers. Our algorithms run quickly and perform fairly well even for key lengths as high as 40.