HIV disclosure and subsequent sexual behaviors among men who have sex with men who meet online

To assess HIV disclosure discussions and related sexual behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) who meet sex partners online, 28 qualitative interviews with Seattle-area MSM were analyzed using grounded theory methods and themes and behavior patterns were identified. MSM found a greater ease in communicating and could prescreen partners through the Internet. However, no consistent relationship was found between HIV disclosure and subsequent behaviors: some were safer based on disclosure while perceived HIV status led others to risky behaviors. Interventions need to promote accurate disclosure while acknowledging its limitations and the need for men to self-protect.     

Cultural barriers in migration between OECD countries

This paper uses a unique set of new indicators enabling us to test the effects of cultural barriers on migration between OECD countries. Using data on migration flows between 22 OECD countries over the period 1990–2003, we find strong evidence for the negative effect of cultural differences on international migration flows. Cultural barriers do a much better job in explaining the pattern of migration flows between developed countries than traditional economic variables such as income and unemployment differentials.     

Do depressive symptoms in justice‐involved girls reduce the effects of a cognitive‐behavioral program on their disruptive and delinquent behaviors?

The present study evaluated the effects of a cognitive‐behavioral program on disruptive and delinquent behaviors among a sample of adolescent girls placed in a residential center in Quebec (Canada). This study also investigated the moderating impact of depressive symptoms on program effectiveness. The study used a quasi‐experimental design to allow comparisons between 104 girls in the treatment group and 78 girls in the comparison group over 18 months. Findings showed that the program contributed significantly, albeit modestly, to a decline in some forms of disruptive/delinquent behaviors. Results also indicated that girls with a higher level of depressive symptoms at admission also reported higher involvement in a myriad of disruptive/delinquent behaviors and that for some types of problem behaviors, this higher involvement persisted over time. In general, however, the seriousness of the depressive symptoms that the girls reported at admission did not interfere with the effectiveness of the cognitive‐behavioral program.     

Are children in foster care in better psychological health than children in institutions? What factors influence the outcome?

The aim of this study was to compare the psychological health of children in foster care with that of children in institutional care. Social workers were asked to assess the psychological health of the children as well as several other criteria on the basis of an analysis grid. Our sample consisted of 568 children placed in foster care and 661 children placed in institutions. Our results show that children in care who lived longer with their birth parents have a lower psychological health. Furthermore, the psychological health of children in residential care is lower than children placed in foster families. As children in institution are placed later than children in foster families, this may partially explain the lower psychological health of children in residential care. As a result, children in residential care have experienced more abuse and neglect and witnessed more domestic violence than children in foster care. In addition, children in residential care have more poor-quality contacts with their birth parents than children in foster family. These contacts negatively influence their psychological health. Finally, the factor that most influences the psychological health of children in care is the quality of the relationship with the people who care for them on a daily basis. Again, children placed in foster families have better-quality relationships with their foster families than children placed in institutions.     

Power differentials and identity formation: Images of self and other on the Russian–Georgian boundary

This article looks at how Russia places herself in relation to one of her southern neighbours, Georgia, and vice versa. Russia and Georgia have recently been engaged in a short but full-fledged war, hence their interrelationship has been intensely debated in both countries. Both Russia and Georgia are, as it were, poised ‘between East and West’.

As a starting point, therefore, we hypothesized that Russians would present themselves as a European nation while they would orientalise the Georgians. Conversely, the Georgians would define themselves into and the Russians out of Europe. We found, however, that identity construction on the Russian-Georgian border is not symmetrical. While the Georigan discourse basically confirmed our assumption, in Russia the dominant discourse is that Russia and Georgia are closely related, fraternal peoples. This shows the importance of power relations in the study of reciprocal identity formations.

While hegemonic discourses often are discourses of exclusion our study shows that a discourse of inclusion—in our case a rhetoric of ‘brotherhood’—often may be a more effective technique of domination. The prevailing discourse in the weaker group, on the other hand, will focus more on cultural distance towards the more powerful Other.     

Partial least squares Cox regression for genome-wide data

Most methods for survival prediction from high-dimensional genomic data combine the Cox proportional hazards model with some technique of dimension reduction, such as partial least squares regression (PLS). Applying PLS to the Cox model is not entirely straightforward, and multiple approaches have been proposed. The method of Park et al. (Bioinformatics 18(Suppl. 1):S120–S127, 2002) uses a reformulation of the Cox likelihood to a Poisson type likelihood, thereby enabling estimation by iteratively reweighted partial least squares for generalized linear models. We propose a modification of the method of park et al. (2002) such that estimates of the baseline hazard and the gene effects are obtained in separate steps. The resulting method has several advantages over the method of park et al. (2002) and other existing Cox PLS approaches, as it allows for estimation of survival probabilities for new patients, enables a less memory-demanding estimation procedure, and allows for incorporation of lower-dimensional non-genomic variables like disease grade and tumor thickness. We also propose to combine our Cox PLS method with an initial gene selection step in which genes are ordered by their Cox score and only the highest-ranking k% of the genes are retained, obtaining a so-called supervised partial least squares regression method. In simulations, both the unsupervised and the supervised version outperform other Cox PLS methods.     

Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters

Estimates of the cost of potential disasters, including indirect economic consequences, are an important input in the design of risk management strategies. The adaptive regional input‐output (ARIO) inventory model is a tool to assess indirect disaster losses and to analyze their drivers. It is based on an input‐output structure, but it also (i) explicitly represents production bottlenecks and input scarcity and (ii) introduces inventories as an additional flexibility in the production system. This modeling strategy distinguishes between (i) essential supplies that cannot be stocked (e.g., electricity, water) and whose scarcity can paralyze all economic activity; (ii) essential supplies that can be stocked at least temporarily (e.g., steel, chemicals), whose scarcity creates problems only over the medium term; and (iii) supplies that are not essential in the production process, whose scarcity is problematic only over the long run and are therefore easy to replace with imports. The model is applied to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and identifies two periods in the disaster aftermath: (1) the first year, during which production bottlenecks are responsible for large output losses; (2) the rest of the reconstruction period, during which bottlenecks are inexistent and output losses lower. This analysis also suggests important research questions and policy options to mitigate disaster‐related output losses.     

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme‐storm‐related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached.     

Meta-Analysis of Food Safety Information Based on a Combination of a Relational Database and a Predictive Modeling Tool

The management of microbial risk in food products requires the ability to predict growth kinetics of pathogenic microorganisms in the event of contamination and growth initiation. Useful data for assessing these issues may be found in the literature or from experimental results. However, the large number and variety of data make further development difficult. Statistical techniques, such as meta-analysis, are then useful to realize synthesis of a set of distinct but similar experiences. Moreover, predictive modeling tools can be employed to complete the analysis and help the food safety manager to interpret the data. In this article, a protocol to perform a meta-analysis of the outcome of a relational database, associated with quantitative microbiology models, is presented. The methodology is illustrated with the effect of temperature on pathogenic Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes, growing in culture medium, beef meat, and milk products. Using a database and predictive models, simulations of growth in a given product subjected to various temperature scenarios can be produced. It is then possible to compare food products for a given microorganism, according to its growth ability in these products, and to compare the behavior of bacteria in a given foodstuff. These results can assist decisions for a variety of questions on food safety.