Prior distributions expressing ignorance about convex increasing failure rates

This paper deals with the specification of probability distributions expressing ignorance concerning annual or otherwise discretized failure or mortality rates, when these rates can safely be assumed to be increasing and convex, but are completely unknown otherwise. Such distributions can be used as noninformative priors for Bayesian analysis of failure data. We demonstrate why a uniform distribution used in earlier work is unsatisfactory, especially from the point of view of insensitivity with respect to the time scale that is chosen for the problem at hand. We suggest alternative distributions based on Dirichlet distributed weights for the extreme points of relevant convex sets, and discuss which consequences a requirement for scale neutrality has for the choice of Dirichlet parameters.     

试论理工科大学的人文学科发展策略

理工科大学的人文学科缺失既是一种历史缺失 ,又是一种结构性缺失。其发展策略应为 :以超常规的思路组建综合性的人文社会科学研究基地 ,组建综合性的教师培训基地 ,制定激励性的制度和措施 ,引进和聚集高水平的人文学科研究和教学人才等