Affine LIBOR models driven by real-valued affine processes

The class of affine LIBOR models is appealing since it satisfies three central requirements of interest rate modeling. It is arbitrage-free, interest rates are nonnegative, and caplet and swaption prices can be calculated analytically. In order to guarantee nonnegative interest rates affine LIBOR models are driven by nonnegative affine processes, a restriction that makes it hard to produce volatility smiles. We modify the affine LIBOR models in such a way that real-valued affine processes can be used without destroying the nonnegativity of interest rates. Numerical examples show that in this class of models, pronounced volatility smiles are possible.     

Multiple hypothesis tests based On conditional differences in means

Many hypothesis tests are univariate tests and cannot cope with multiple hypothesis without an auxiliary procedure as e. g. the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure. At the same time, there is an urgent need for testing multiple hypothesis due to the very simple existing methods as the Bonferroni-correction or the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure, which suffers from a very small local significance level to detect statistical inferences or the drawback that logical and statistical dependencies among the test statistics are not used, whereby its detection is NP-hard. In honour of this occasion, we present a multiple hypothesis test for i.i.d. random variables based on conditional differences in means, which is capable to cope with multiple hypothesis and does not suffer on such drawbacks as the Bonferroni-correction or the Bonferroni-Holm-procedure. Thereby, the computation time can be neglected.     

L'effet des obstacles aux échanges sur l'emploi généré par les chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales

Les auteurs étudient l'effet des obstacles aux échanges internationaux de biens et de services sur les marchés du travail des pays producteurs en partant des estimations du BIT sur l'emploi imputable aux chaînes d'approvisionnement mondiales. L'analyse empirique confirme largement les prédictions d'un modèle théorique calibré avec des données de la base WIOD (2000 et 2011). Les obstacles au commerce de produits manufacturés ou de services ont un effet transfrontalier, intrasectoriel et intersectoriel, sur l'emploi, qui reflète l'interdépendance croissante entre pays et secteurs. L'effet intersectoriel s'affirme avec le temps. Les politiques commerciales semblent donc pouvoir avoir des effets externes importants sur les marchés du travail étrangers.     

Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

Interkulturelles Coaching – eine komplexe,systemische Herausforderung

Intercultural coaching takes place in the highly complex reality of a globalized world. The coachee is an individual acting in the situational context of his assignment and his corporate culture. He has been socialized in his own culture, but is communicating and interacting with people who have been socialized in different cultures. In order to identify and solve problems, all three aspects (person, situation, culture) have to be considered. Some aspects may have more influence than others may, but they combine in a closely interwoven system. The authors outline the theoretical background of intercultural coaching and illustrate the process with case studies.     

Participatory Spaces of Mental Health Service User Organizations in the Post-deinstitutional Era: Mapping Roles and Challenges

By applying the concept of participatory spaces, this article maps and analyzes current research on mental health service user organizations (MHSUOs). We have analyzed research literature from 2006 to 2016 to examine how the role of and challenges facing MHSUOs are formulated in the post-deinstitutional era. The current situation is marked by MHSUOs parallel presence in invited, claimed and popular spaces for participation. The post-deinstitutional era is characterized by a shift in focus from gaining access to such participatory spaces, to critically examining the political opportunities available in these. We further argue that the dominance of psychiatry-specific spaces could prevent MHSUOs from fully exploring their potential for participation in broader social issues.     

Das TIMP-Inventar – Ein Beitrag zur ökonomischen Erfassung von Kern-Faktoren salutogener Führung

Occupational health management and science increasingly focus on the issue of health-promoting leadership. Meanwhile a lot of leadership behaviors have been identified that affect the health of employees. To measure them requires high costs. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify core-factors of salutogenic leadership and to operationalize them for an efficient diagnosis. As an integrative work-related indicator of employees’ health sense of work coherence (Work-SoC) was chosen. In a deductive and inductive process the TIMP-inventory has been developed that enables the economic assessment of three leadership dimensions: Trust, Incident Management and Pressure. These factors explain with less items more variance of the Work-SoC construct than established general and health-related leadership scales of transformational leadership, consideration, social support, demanding leadership as well as positive and negative health behavior. That is why the TIMP-factors can be recognized as core-factors of health-promoting leadership.     

Bindung(en) in der Arbeitswelt

Vanishing or decreasing attachment is an indicator for changes within a work-oriented society. This particularly affects employment and our organizational commitment as well as bonds that are established in the context of professional relationships. This text provides a comparative analysis of two attachment-theoretical approaches that have developed simultaneously but independently from one another: commitment research into organizational psychology on the one hand and attachment theory based on developmental psychology on the other. Both are to be examined for their potential, their theoretical and empirical response to current dynamics in the world of work.     

Pension reforms in EU11 countries: An evaluation of post‐socialist pension policies

This article evaluates the pension policy pathways of the 11 former state socialist nations that have joined the European Union since 2004. Focusing primarily on the post‐2004 period, the analysis discusses the most important measurable outcomes of these countries’ pension reforms, in terms of poverty alleviation, pension adequacy and fiscal sustainability. Going beyond the quantifiable concepts, we also investigate the quality of the 11 countries’ pension systems in terms of equity as well as efficiency, emphasizing the less conspicuous design errors present in these systems. Although these errors have received little attention to date, they may harm pension schemes along several dimensions, including their fiscal sustainability.     

Agreement and discrepancy between children,parents, and social workers on school‐based effort avoidance in child welfare services

A multiperspective approach is beneficial for obtaining reliable and multifaceted pictures of child behaviour problems. The goal of the present study is to examine interrater agreement on school‐based effort avoidance between children receiving child welfare services, parents, and social workers. Given previous findings, interrater agreement is expected to be low. Self‐reported data on school‐based effort avoidance were gathered for children and adolescents in child welfare services. Additionally, social workers (using the Teacher‐Report Checklist for social and learning behaviour) and parents (using the parallel version of the self‐rating questionnaire on school‐based effort avoidance) were asked to complete an external assessment tool to compare children's perspectives with the ratings of significant adults. The results confirmed significant discrepancies between parents' and children's ratings on effort avoidance tendencies. Furthermore, there were only small to moderate correlations between children's self‐ratings and the adults' assessments; however, the consensus between adults was higher than the interrater agreement between children and social workers. Discrepancies in ratings from multiple informants underline the importance of integrating multiple perspectives, especially children's perspectives, in the diagnostic process in order to plan and adapt appropriate care and treatment.