Page's sequential procedure for change-point detection in time series regression

In a variety of different settings cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedures have been applied for the sequential detection of structural breaks in the parameters of stochastic models. Yet their performance depends strongly on the time of change and is best under early change scenarios. For later changes their finite sample behavior is rather questionable. We therefore propose modified CUSUM procedures for the detection of abrupt changes in the regression parameter of multiple time series regression models, that show a higher stability with respect to the time of change than ordinary CUSUM procedures. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and the consistency of the procedures are provided. In a simulation study it is shown that the proposed procedures behave well in finite samples. Finally the procedures are applied to a set of capital asset pricing data related to the Fama–French extension of the CAPM.     

Limited relevance of the right not to know--reflections on a screening study

The right not to know personal health-related information has been included in prominent human rights documents and subsequently in national legislation since the middle of the 1990s. Apart from situations where another life is at stake, the right not to know has in these documents been formulated as if it should have precedence over other interests. This article argues against giving the right not to know such a prominent position. It does so by questioning the ethical relevance of the concept for both theoretical and empirical reasons. The main focus of the article is on empirical data from a prospective population screeningfor Type I diabetes. Data indicate that research participants are not as autonomous as is generally assumed by the defenders of the right not to know.     

The Global Forum on Migration and Development as a venue of state socialisation: a stepping stone for multi-level migration governance?

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on the Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD) which has become one of the major global spaces for deliberations on migration but remains informal and non-binding. Drawing from literature on norm diffusion and state socialisation, it debates the role of the GFMD as a stepping stone for a more robust, multi-level and networked global migration governance by bringing together governments, global institutions, civil society and to a lesser degree the private sector. It is argued that the GFMD has the potential to socialise states in two ways that are conducive to establishing a multi-level global migration governance: First, states are exposed to discourses on migration as a truly global issue. The second way in which the GFMD process can socialise states is in the interaction with migrant civil society, thus potentially ‘blurring’ previously distant if not openly antagonistic relations. Since most states regard migration as one of their last ‘bastions of sovereignty’, the GFMD could provide a necessary first step as a trust-building measure. Providing participatory spaces and allowing agency for migrants and their organisations is not a mere optional feature but a crucial component for a truly multi-level and thus multi-stakeholder global migration governance.     

CHILDREN OF A (POLICY) REVOLUTION: THE INTRODUCTION OF UNIVERSAL CHILD CARE AND ITS EFFECT ON FERTILITY

What role does affordable and widely available public child care play for fertility? We exploit a major German reform generating large temporal and spatial variation in child care coverage for children under the age of three. Our precise and robust estimates on birth register data reveal that increases in public child care have significant positive effects on fertility. The fertility effects are more pronounced at the intensive than at the extensive margin, and are not driven by changes in the timing of births or selective migration. Our findings inform policy makers concerned about low fertility by suggesting that universal early child care holds the promise of being an effective means of increasing birth rates.     

Non-monotonicity in the longevity�Cincome relationship

In this essay, I empirically analyze the relationship between income and life expectancy for pensioners in the public pension system in Germany and find that the relationship is non-monotonic for major sub-groups in the data. Due to the application of non-parametric methods, this cannot be explained as an artifact of the estimation technique or by anomalies of the data, and the finding is robust against the inclusion of control variables. Furthermore, I theoretically derive a non-monotonic relationship between income and longevity, based on heterogeneous elasticities of labor supply and otherwise standard assumptions.     

The use and effectiveness of top executive dismissal

We provide a systematic assessment of the empirical evidence on the use and effectiveness of top executive dismissal as a governance and performance improvement mechanism. Our results suggest that poor individual and firm performance significantly increase the likelihood of executive dismissal. A strong power base might help under-performing top executives to extend their tenure in office, but effective ownership and governance structures can provide a counterweight to such entrenchment behaviors. However, our review casts doubt on the effectiveness of top executive dismissal as a means to enhance future firm performance: employing meta-analytical techniques we show that, although the dismissal announcement leads to positive abnormal returns, it has no significant effect on long-term measures of firm performance. On the basis of our findings, we develop a conceptual model of the possible antecedents and consequences of top executive dismissal. We derive implications for boards involved in situations of executive dismissal and for the successors of dismissed executives, and we provide directions for future leadership research on executive dismissal.     

Pricing of flexible products

The pricing of flexible products is a new price discrimination practice that can enable firms to increase revenues under capacity considerations. A flexible product is defined as a good or service with at least one product attribute not fully specified at the time of the purchase, leaving the seller with at least two alternatives for the final product design and the ability to assign consumers to one of these alternatives at a later date. Flexible products enable sellers to better utilized capacity, as well as, to segment consumers and price discriminate according to different levels of flexibility. We empirically analyze consumer purchase behavior for flexible products based on a large field study of a low-cost airline. At this low-cost airline, consumers can select the level of flexibility of the flexible product. We identify the drivers of purchase behavior by analyzing the impact of consumers?? flexibility and search behavior and the price discount of the flexible ticket. Further, we estimate the revenue and profit effects of flexible products.