Regularized Gaussian belief propagation

Belief propagation (BP) has been applied in a variety of inference problems as an approximation tool. BP does not necessarily converge in loopy graphs, and even if it does, is not guaranteed to provide exact inference. Even so, BP is useful in many applications due to its computational tractability. In this article, we investigate a regularized BP scheme by focusing on loopy Markov graphs (MGs) induced by a multivariate Gaussian distribution in canonical form. There is a rich literature surrounding BP on Gaussian MGs (labelled Gaussian belief propagation or GaBP), and this is known to experience the same problems as general BP on graphs. GaBP is known to provide the correct marginal means if it converges (this is not guaranteed), but it does not provide the exact marginal precisions. We show that our adjusted BP will always converge, with sufficient tuning, while maintaining the exact marginal means. As a further contribution we show, in an empirical study, that our GaBP variant can accelerate GaBP and compares well with other GaBP-type competitors in terms of convergence speed and accuracy of approximate marginal precisions. These improvements suggest that the principle of regularized BP should be investigated in other inference problems. The selection of the degree of regularization is addressed through the use of two heuristics. A by-product of GaBP is that it can be used to solve linear systems of equations; the same is true for our variant and we make an empirical comparison with the conjugate gradient method.     

Risky investment decisions: How are individuals influenced by their groups?

We investigate the effect of group versus individual decision-making in the context of risky investment decisions in which all subjects are fully informed of the probabilities and payoffs. Although there is full information, the lottery choices pose cognitive challenges so that people may not be sure of their expected utility-maximizing choice. Making such decisions in a group context provides real-time information in which group members can observe others’ choices and revise their own decisions. Our experimental results show that simply observing what others in the group do has a significant impact on behavior. Coupling real-time information with group decisions based on the median value, i.e., majority rule, makes the median investment choice focal, leading people with low values to increase investments and those with high values to decrease investments. Group decisions based on the minimum investment amount produce more asymmetric effects.     

Digitalisierung und Konvergenz von Online- und Offline-Welt

The increasing diffusion of mobile phones with internet access (Smartphones) enables more and more consumers to use the mobile internet. In addition, there is a continuing integration of location-based services (LBS). By means of Global Positioning Systems or WiFi-triangulation LBS provide context-aware information to consumers. This leads to a convergence of online and offline worlds. The usage of LBS delivers additional information to consumers (e.g. alternative offers or detailed product information). Therefore LBS do have an influence on consumer behavior. Particularly during the search process, information about prices or geographic distances, that are relevant for the purchase, are of importance. This study analyzes the relevance of location-based internet search empirically. Search costs are estimated on an individual level in a choice-based conjoint analysis using two different products. As a result, location-based internet search is considered to be very relevant for search and influential on consumer behavior. The study shows different consumers preferences and different search costs depending on the product. To conclude the study, the implications are discussed. The major contribution of this study is that it shows that offline and online search do have a mutual impact on each other. Furthermore, search costs are measured in a mobile context.     

The Limits of Monetizing and Paying for Volunteering in Eldercare: A Behavioral-Economic Approach

The monetary value of informal eldercare in the family and voluntary sector has drawn much attention as it concerns a resource of welfare governments and nonprofit organizations try to activate via cash benefits. Studies addressing the issue in order to assess the economic impact of non-market activities and the willingness to accept financial rewards have largely ignored differences in the utility function of caregivers. Applying a behavioral-economic approach, we report a profound and formerly unobserved distinction between care in the household and non-household care for a family member or in a voluntary framework: whereas caregivers within the household perceive care as a burden and a positive shadow price arises, in the non-household context—and particularly in the volunteering case–care extends well-being and leads to negative shadow prices. The results show that non-market activities can only be measured in monetary terms to a limited extent and contribute to explaining the boundaries of monetary incentive policies.     

A Turning Point in Gender Bias in Mortality? An Update on the Number of Missing Women

Amartya Sen started a debate about gender bias in mortality by estimating the number of “missing women,” which refers to the number of females of any age who have presumably died as a result of discriminatory treatment. Depending on the assumptions made, the combined estimates for countries exhibiting the presence of such gender bias varied between 60 and 107 million. As new population data have become available for these countries, this article examines whether the number of “missing women” has changed in the past decade. The combined estimate of the number of missing women has risen in absolute terms but has fallen slightly in relation to overall population. Considerable improvement is evident in West Asia, North Africa, and parts of South Asia, while only small improvements have occurred in India and a deterioration took place in China. Analyses of the underlying causes of gender bias in mortality suggest that improvements are largely related to improved female education and employment opportunities and rising overall incomes, while deterioration is mostly attributable to the rising incidence of sex‐selective abortions.     

THE SUPERVISORY RELATIONSHIP: AN IDENTIFICATION OF THE PRIMARY ELEMENTS IN THE RELATIONSHIP AND AN APPLICATION OF TWO THEORIES OF ETHICAL RELATIONSHIPS

Many authors on the subject of marriage and family therapy supervision point to the fact that the quality of relationship between supervisor and supervisee is crucial to the process. However, little has been written about the nature of this relationship. This article identifies key elements in the relationship and introduces a theoretical framework for understanding those elements based on the principles of ethical relationships proposed by Ivan Boszormenyi-Nagy and Nell Noddings.     

Content validation on the Work Performance Rating Scale for sheltered workshop workers

The purpose of this study was to revise the content of the Work Performance Rating Scale (WPRS) as a valid assessment tool for sheltered workshop workers. A focus group of 11 sheltered workshop workers was recruited to collect their opinions about the relevance of the WPRS from the service users' perspectives. A panel of 23 frontline practitioners who had experience in using various work assessment instruments provided at their work setting was recruited to review the content of the WPRS. A 14-item amended version of the WPRS with five new items added was proposed based on the opinions of service users, frontline practitioners, and the concept of the Minnesota Theory of Work Adjustment (MTWA). An expert panel of 12 professionals at the senior level from various vocational rehabilitation settings was recruited to comment on the content validity of the 14-item amended version of the WPRS. The expert panel agreed that the amended version of the WPRS was related to the concept of job satisfactoriness which could be used to assess the work performance of sheltered workshop workers. Thus, the use of the MTWA for improving the content validity of the WPRS to assess the employability of sheltered workshop workers was supported by the findings of the study.     

Mutability of DNA base pairs: A statistical approach based on linear discrimination

A mutational spectrum measures the frequency of mutations at particular base pairs along a given DNA sequence under the influence of a particular treatment. Such spectra have been measured for several genes, in various organisms and under different treatments. This article presents a method of analysis based on the statistical discrimination between mutable base pairs and stable base pairs. The coefficients of the discriminant function characterize the mutational spectrum induced by a given treatment on a given sequence. These coefficients can be interpreted by the user without specialized statistical knowledge.