The value of a name: Estimating the economic impact of public land designation

Public land designations have been shown to have significant impact on their contextual regional economies. This paper reviews the existing literature on how public lands impact the proximate regional economies in which they are situated. Based on this collected wisdom the paper synthesizes past lessons into a comprehensive impact methodology. This methodology distinguishes quality effects in terms of visitors’ willingness to pay for sites of higher quality and quantity effects in terms of additional visitation to such sites to give a more comprehensive methodology for characterizing visitation and economic impact of protected area designation. We focus on National Monuments and National Parks, given that these two types of public lands have the broadest popular exposure and feature the most reliable data. A case study is then presented for a hypothetical protected area in Ferry County, Washington, USA, applying this new methodology to assess the likely economic effects of different types of protected areas.     

Reverse Regression and Employment Discrimination

The importance of interval forecasts is reviewed. Several general approaches to calculating such forecasts are described and compared. They include the use of theoretical formulas based on a fitted probability model (with or without a correction for parameter uncertainty), various “approximate” formulas (which should be avoided), and empirically based, simulation, and resampling procedures. The latter are useful when theoretical formulas are not available or there are doubts about some model assumptions. The distinction between a forecasting method and a forecasting model is expounded. For large groups of series, a forecasting method may be chosen in a fairly ad hoc way. With appropriate checks, it may be possible to base interval forecasts on the model for which the method is optimal. It is certainly unsound to use a model for which the method is not optimal, but, strangely, this is sometimes done. Some general comments are made as to why prediction intervals tend to be too narrow in practice to encompass the required proportion of future observations. An example demonstrates the overriding importance of careful model specification. In particular, when data are “nearly nonstationary,” the difference between fitting a stationary and a nonstationary model is critical.     

Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility

A number of recent papers have focused on the problem of testing for a unit root in the case where the driving shocks may be unconditionally heteroskedastic. These papers have, however, taken the lag length in the unit root test regression to be a deterministic function of the sample size, rather than data-determined, the latter being standard empirical practice. We investigate the finite sample impact of unconditional heteroskedasticity on conventional data-dependent lag selection methods in augmented Dickey–Fuller type regressions and propose new lag selection criteria which allow for unconditional heteroskedasticity. Standard lag selection methods are shown to have a tendency to over-fit the lag order under heteroskedasticity, resulting in significant power losses in the (wild bootstrap implementation of the) augmented Dickey–Fuller tests under the alternative. The proposed new lag selection criteria are shown to avoid this problem yet deliver unit root tests with almost identical finite sample properties as the corresponding tests based on conventional lag selection when the shocks are homoskedastic.     

Mapping movement landscapes in South Africa

ABSTRACT

The concept of a movement landscape is used to analyse continuities and changes in popular mobilization since the end of formal apartheid. Focusing on four different episodes of protest since 1997, the article examines their relationship to the ANC movement and traditions, and their organizational forms. It finds a general theme of fluid and ephemeral organization, and a distrust of formal hierarchal organization, that is relatively new in South Africa. The Marikana strikes produced the most far-reaching organizational realignments, while the student struggles generated the most innovative re-imaginings of political forms and discourses. It concludes that although there have been critiques of and challenges to the ANC tradition, and experiments with new forms of organizing, they have not produced alternatives that have lasted or dislodged the dominant approaches defined and popularized by the ANC movement.     

Same same but different: managerial influences on organisational performance in foundations and associations

In the last few years the management orientation of nonprofit organisation (NPOs) has been gaining importance. Management is said to have made the organisation of NPOs more effective and efficient. However, the influence of the institutional settings is often neglected in nonprofit management literature. By using a quantitative empirical approach this study investigates the influence of the legal type of Swiss nonprofits on the relationship between management dimensions and organisational performance. The research findings reveal significant differences in the management of foundations and associations. In particular, foundations have a competitive advantage in terms of innovation and market orientation. Whereas associations profit from investing in governance issues.     

Two preprocessing algorithms for climate time series

We propose two preprocessing algorithms suitable for climate time series. The first algorithm detects outliers based on an autoregressive cost update mechanism. The second one is based on the wavelet transform, a method from pattern recognition. In order to benchmark the algorithms'' performance we compare them to existing methods based on a synthetic data set. Eventually, for exemplary purposes, the proposed methods are applied to a data set of high-frequent temperature measurements from Novi Sad, Serbia. The results show that both methods together form a powerful tool for signal preprocessing: In case of solitary outliers the autoregressive cost update mechanism prevails, whereas the wavelet-based mechanism is the method of choice in the presence of multiple consecutive outliers.     

Small‐sphere distributions for directional data with application to medical imaging

We propose novel parametric concentric multi‐unimodal small‐subsphere families of densities for p ? 1 ≥ 2‐dimensional spherical data. Their parameters describe a common axis for K small hypersubspheres, an array of K directional modes, one mode for each subsphere, and K pairs of concentrations parameters, each pair governing horizontal (within the subsphere) and vertical (orthogonal to the subsphere) concentrations. We introduce two kinds of distributions. In its one‐subsphere version, the first kind coincides with a special case of the Fisher–Bingham distribution, and the second kind is a novel adaption that models independent horizontal and vertical variations. In its multisubsphere version, the second kind allows for a correlation of horizontal variation over different subspheres. In medical imaging, the situation of p ? 1 = 2 occurs precisely in modeling the variation of a skeletally represented organ shape due to rotation, twisting, and bending. For both kinds, we provide new computationally feasible algorithms for simulation and estimation and propose several tests. To the best knowledge of the authors, our proposed models are the first to treat the variation of directional data along several concentric small hypersubspheres, concentrated near modes on each subsphere, let alone horizontal dependence. Using several simulations, we show that our methods are more powerful than a recent nonparametric method and ad hoc methods. Using data from medical imaging, we demonstrate the advantage of our method and infer on the dominating axis of rotation of the human knee joint at different walking phases.     

The Shifting Meanings of Popular Engagement in Swedish Society

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - The aim of this article is to contribute to the Swedish debate on popular engagement by studying changes in popular...