Statistical and Historical Analyses of Nations Which Deviate From the Size-Density Law

We examine nations which deviate significantly from the ?2/3 sizedensity slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of timeminimization. We correct Stephan’s original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than ?2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.     

Alles ist gut

All is good — wisdom’s use in managementIn crisis periods the demand for orientation knowledge grows. Everybody is looking for the answers to the fundamental questions of life. For over 2000 years philosophy has such a knowledge: wisdom. But what is wisdom and what is its use for the management? On this question the essay with Kant gives the answer: Wisdom is the way of self-knowledge. And self-knowledge is the very source of each vision, without which there is no successful entrepreneurship.     

Führung — der unterschätzte Beruf

Leadership — an underestimated profession. From a greenhorn of leadership to a qualified manager The author presents an empirical inquiery, basing on interviews with 10 recently appointed managers. She demontrates, that managers hardly ever are prepared for her job in advance. This may lead to several problems, up to a demotivation of all persons envolved. The author proposes a procedure of personal development with three elements: seminars to impart knowledge, employment of internal mentors and of external coaches.     

Reverse Regression and Employment Discrimination

The importance of interval forecasts is reviewed. Several general approaches to calculating such forecasts are described and compared. They include the use of theoretical formulas based on a fitted probability model (with or without a correction for parameter uncertainty), various “approximate” formulas (which should be avoided), and empirically based, simulation, and resampling procedures. The latter are useful when theoretical formulas are not available or there are doubts about some model assumptions. The distinction between a forecasting method and a forecasting model is expounded. For large groups of series, a forecasting method may be chosen in a fairly ad hoc way. With appropriate checks, it may be possible to base interval forecasts on the model for which the method is optimal. It is certainly unsound to use a model for which the method is not optimal, but, strangely, this is sometimes done. Some general comments are made as to why prediction intervals tend to be too narrow in practice to encompass the required proportion of future observations. An example demonstrates the overriding importance of careful model specification. In particular, when data are “nearly nonstationary,” the difference between fitting a stationary and a nonstationary model is critical.     

Is Poker a Game of Skill or Chance? A Quasi-Experimental Study

Due to intensive marketing and the rapid growth of online gambling, poker currently enjoys great popularity among large sections of the population. Although poker is legally a game of chance in most countries, some (particularly operators of private poker web sites) argue that it should be regarded as a game of skill or sport because the outcome of the game primarily depends on individual aptitude and skill. The available findings indicate that skill plays a meaningful role; however, serious methodological weaknesses and the absence of reliable information regarding the relative importance of chance and skill considerably limit the validity of extant research. Adopting a quasi-experimental approach, the present study examined the extent to which the influence of poker playing skill was more important than card distribution. Three average players and three experts sat down at a six-player table and played 60 computer-based hands of the poker variant “Texas Hold’em” for money. In each hand, one of the average players and one expert received (a) better-than-average cards (winner’s box), (b) average cards (neutral box) and (c) worse-than-average cards (loser’s box). The standardized manipulation of the card distribution controlled the factor of chance to determine differences in performance between the average and expert groups. Overall, 150 individuals participated in a “fixed-limit” game variant, and 150 individuals participated in a “no-limit” game variant. ANOVA results showed that experts did not outperform average players in terms of final cash balance. Rather, card distribution was the decisive factor for successful poker playing. However, expert players were better able to minimize losses when confronted with disadvantageous conditions (i.e., worse-than-average cards). No significant differences were observed between the game variants. Furthermore, supplementary analyses confirm differential game-related actions dependent on the card distribution, player status, and game variant. In conclusion, the study findings indicate that poker should be regarded as a game of chance, at least under certain basic conditions, and suggest new directions for further research.     

Small-Sample Improved Seasonal Unit Root Tests for Trending and Breaking Series

In this article three unit root tests that allow for a break in both the seasonal mean and linear trend of the data are proposed. The tests, which can be seen as small-sample corrected versions of already known asymptotic tests, are shown to perform very well in simulations, and much better than their asymptotic counterparts.     

Wal‐Mart and County‐Wide Poverty*

Objectives. This study seeks to identify the independent effect of Wal‐Mart stores on changes in U.S. family‐poverty rates at the county level. We draw on the contributions of a number of disciplines to enhance our understanding of the broader forces that influence poverty. Methods. A key innovation is that we estimate a two‐stage regression model, in which an instrument is created for new Wal‐Mart stores from a location equation; this reduces any potential endogeneity bias in the poverty‐change equation. In addition, we use spatial econometric methods to correct for spatial dependence bias. Results. After controlling for other factors determining changes in the poverty rate over time, we find that counties with more initial (1987) Wal‐Mart stores and counties with more additions of stores between 1987 and 1998 experienced greater increases (or smaller decreases) in family‐poverty rates during the 1990s economic boom period. Conclusions. Wal‐Mart creates both benefits and costs to communities in which the chain locates. These benefits and costs need to be weighed carefully by community decisionmakers in deciding whether to provide public subsidies to the chain.