Estimating and contextualizing the attenuation of odds ratios due to non collapsibility

The odds ratio is a measure commonly used for expressing the association between an exposure and a binary outcome. A feature of the odds ratio is that its value depends on the choice of the distribution over which the probabilities in the odds ratio are evaluated. In particular, this means that an odds ratio conditional on a covariate may have a different value from an odds ratio marginal on the covariate, even if the covariate is not associated with the exposure (not a confounder). We define the individual odds ratio (IORs) and population odds ratios (PORs) as the ratio of the odds of the outcome for a unit increase in the exposure, respectively, for an individual in the population and for the whole population, in which case the odds are averaged across the population. The attenuation of conditional odds ratio, marginal odds ratio, and PORs from the IOR is demonstrated in a realistic simulation exercise. The degree of attenuation differs in the whole population and in a case–control sample, and the property of invariance to outcome-dependent sampling is only true for the IOR. The relevance of the non collapsibility of odds ratios in a range of methodological areas is discussed.     

Tabulations for value at risk and expected shortfall

Value at risk and expected shortfall are the two most popular measures of financial risk. Here, we tabulate expressions for both these measures for over 100 parametric distributions, including all commonly known distributions, and illustrate a data application. We expect that this collection of expressions could serve as a source of reference and encourage further research with respect to measures of financial risk.     

On-the-Job Search,Mismatch and Worker Heterogeneity

This paper empirically examines the search behavior of currently employed workers to understand changes in on-the-job search across different types of employed individuals and varying labor market conditions. Using data from the American Time Use Survey, we estimate the responsiveness of workers with varying levels of productivity and job-match quality to regional labor market conditions. We find that those workers who are less-productive, mismatched in their current position, and high-productivity, mismatched workers are more likely to engage in search than other workers. These results have implications for models built on job mismatch, as well as for models seeking to explain increasing inequality and wage dispersion.     

Guanxi influence and talent management in Chinese organisations; evidence from the real estate sector

The Chinese context has been characterised as one where guanxi influence is significant, shaping the choices, considerations, challenges, and consequences of talent management (TM). There is though little empirical research which shows that this is what is experienced, and that guanxi influence does feature prominently. The purpose of our research is to explore experiences of TM in China, and the extent to which the guanxi influence affects TM.

Case study research to identify and explore guanxi influence on TM was undertaken in three real estate companies in China. Interviews with managers and employees on how talent is defined, attracted, developed, and retained were analysed for guanxi influence. These show that guanxi influence is clearly present in the experience of TM, though this is not the sole or always dominant influence on choices, considerations, challenges, and consequences. This paper contributes to the TM literature by showing that guanxi influences play important roles in defining, attracting, developing, and retaining talent in the Chinese context and also highlighting both advantages and potential disadvantages of guanxi influence in TM activities.

Evidence suggests that guanxi influence is a relevant focus for understanding TM and for framing further research on TM in China. Guanxi influence in this TM context will continue, and by extension in contexts where Chinese organisations develop their presence globally, and adapt to the wider international context of organisation development and change in which best practice TM is a stronger influence.     

Australian Queer Science Fiction Fans

Science fiction (sf) does more than provide a fleeting moment of entertainment; it has many personal and social functions. In addition to offering audiences “romantic escapism” (Gerrold, 1996, pp. 5–6), sf also enables the “postulation of an alternative reality from which to contemplate this one” (Gerrold, 1996, pp. 5–6); as such, it is especially important “for groups which have had limited stakes in the status quo” (Jenkins, 1995, p. 242). To date, no research has been undertaken on the relationship between Australian queers and sf fandom. This article reports the findings of an online survey and explores the psycho-social features of Australian queer sf fans and why they like the genre. While the characteristics of this sample mirror those of Australian queers generally, they also have slightly higher rates of mental illness and are far more likely to state they have “no religion.” Furthermore, while enjoying the “sciency” (P10, bisexual woman) aspects of sf, Australian queers also like the “poignant metaphors for our own civilization” (P45, asexual man)     

Socializing the Silent Treatment: Parent and Adult Child Communicated Displeasure,Identification, and Satisfaction

Responding to evidence that the silent treatment is a relational-harming means of communicating disappointment in interpersonal relationships, this study focused on the silent treatment’s role and transmission within the family. Adult children’s (N = 182) self-reported silent-treatment behaviors were negatively related to their own self-esteem, and the satisfaction they reported for their primary parent was negatively related to that parent’s silent treatment. The parent’s admitting displeasure, however, was positively related to this satisfaction and positively associated with the child’s feelings of control. Revealed sex differences were minor and outside of gendered expectations for communicating disappointment. In testing parent socialization of the silent treatment, parent silent-treatment use was positively associated with the adult child’s silent-treatment use, with no demonstrated mediation by parent identification.     

Do we really need confidence intervals in the new statistics?

This paper compares the use of confidence intervals (CIs) and a sensitivity analysis called the number needed to disturb (NNTD), in the analysis of research findings expressed as ‘effect’ sizes. Using 1,000 simulations of randomised trials with up to 1,000 cases in each, the paper shows that both approaches are very similar in outcomes, and each one is highly predictable from the other. CIs are supposed to be a measure of likelihood or uncertainty in the results, showing a range of possible effect sizes that could have been produced by random sampling variation alone. NNTD is supposed to be a measure of the robustness of the effect size to any variation, including that produced by missing data. Given that they are largely equivalent and interchangeable under the conditions tested here, the paper suggests that both are really measures of robustness. It concludes that NNTD is to be preferred because it requires many fewer assumptions, is more tolerant of missing data, is easier to explain, and directly addresses the key question of whether the underlying effect size is zero or not.     

Diffusion and policy transfer in armed UAV proliferation: the cases of Italy and Germany

In a 2015 policy change, the U.S. State Department released guidelines governing the sale of armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to other countries, and several export agreements were signed shortly later. While considerable scholarly effort has been devoted to the impact or consequences of UAV proliferation, few studies have analyzed the actual diffusion process. This article applies the insights from both diffusion theory and policy transfer to examine the various diffusion mechanisms while using the experiences from Italy and Germany to illustrate distinct cases policy convergence and divergence, respectively. While the competition mechanism is typically constrained to policy adopting jurisdictions, evidence on armed UAV diffusion suggests policy transfer decisions can also hinge on competition among exporting jurisdictions. Consequently, we seek to point attention to the interaction between diffusion mechanisms (such as competition) and various domestic conditions, demonstrating that diffusion is neither apolitical nor necessarily neutral in character.     

Does financial development affect income inequality in the U.S. States?

This paper examines the role of financial development on U.S. state-level income inequality in the 50 states from 1976 to 2011, using fixed-effect estimation. We find robust results whereby financial development linearly increases income inequality for the 50 states. When we divide 50 states into two separate groups of above-average and below-average inequality states than the cross-state average inequality, the effect of financial development on income inequality appears non-linear. When financial development improves, the effect increases at an increasing rate for above-average income-inequality states, whereas an inverted U-shaped relationship exists for below-average income-inequality states. To our knowledge, this paper is the first to examine the role of financial development on U.S. state-level inequality.