The Quality of Urban Environments in the Brazilian Amazon

In the Brazilian Amazon during the 1980s,urban population growth outstripped rural growth, andby 1991, most of the region's population resided inurban areas. Much of this urban growth involvedestablishment of unplanned housing with inadequateinfrastructure, which resulted in rising pollution. This paper compares indicators of environmentalquality in urban populations of the Amazon in 1980 and1991, and among different kinds of urban populationsin 1991. The results show that environmental qualityin the region deteriorated during the 1980s as theproduction of and exposure to environmental hazardsrose while resources to ward off hazards eroded. Thefindings also show that environmental quality wasparticularly poor in more rapidly growing urbancenters. The urban Amazon may not afford an adequatestandard of living and this may generate out-migrationfrom the region.     

The Effect of Occupational Sex Composition on the Gender Gap in Workplace Authority

This article compares women and men's attainment of workplace authority in female-dominated, mixed, and male-dominated occupations. It is based on a representative mobility study of Jewish women in the Israeli labor force conducted in 1991–1992. Two sets of hypotheses are offered based on two competing theories. The first theory predicts that in female occupations women have more influence and mutual support than in male occupations, and, hence, they will have more access to authority. The opposing perspective argues that in male-dominated occupations the competition between women and men is weaker, and therefore men have a smaller incentive to discriminate against women. Our findings support the second argument. The gender gap in authority is larger in female-dominated occupations, and women have the highest chances to have authority when they work in male occupations; men have similar chances, no matter in which type of occupation they are employed.     

On predictive distributions and Bayesian networks

In this paper we are interested in discrete prediction problems for a decision-theoretic setting, where the task is to compute the predictive distribution for a finite set of possible alternatives. This question is first addressed in a general Bayesian framework, where we consider a set of probability distributions defined by some parametric model class. Given a prior distribution on the model parameters and a set of sample data, one possible approach for determining a predictive distribution is to fix the parameters to the instantiation with the maximum a posteriori probability. A more accurate predictive distribution can be obtained by computing the evidence (marginal likelihood), i.e., the integral over all the individual parameter instantiations. As an alternative to these two approaches, we demonstrate how to use Rissanen's new definition of stochastic complexity for determining predictive distributions, and show how the evidence predictive distribution with Jeffrey's prior approaches the new stochastic complexity predictive distribution in the limit with increasing amount of sample data. To compare the alternative approaches in practice, each of the predictive distributions discussed is instantiated in the Bayesian network model family case. In particular, to determine Jeffrey's prior for this model family, we show how to compute the (expected) Fisher information matrix for a fixed but arbitrary Bayesian network structure. In the empirical part of the paper the predictive distributions are compared by using the simple tree-structured Naive Bayes model, which is used in the experiments for computational reasons. The experimentation with several public domain classification datasets suggest that the evidence approach produces the most accurate predictions in the log-score sense. The evidence-based methods are also quite robust in the sense that they predict surprisingly well even when only a small fraction of the full training set is used.     

GMM Estimation with persistent panel data: an application to production functions

This paper considers the estimation of Cobb-Douglas production functions using panel data covering a large sample of companies observed for a small number of time periods. GMM estimatorshave been found to produce large finite-sample biases when using the standard first-differenced estimator. These biases can be dramatically reduced by exploiting reasonable stationarity restrictions on the initial conditions process. Using data for a panel of R&Dperforming US manufacturing companies we find that the additional instruments used in our extended GMM estimator yield much more reasonable parameter estimates.     

Importance of interpolation when constructing double-bootstrap confidence intervals

We show that, in the context of double-bootstrap confidence intervals, linear interpolation at the second level of the double bootstrap can reduce the simulation error component of coverage error by an order of magnitude. Intervals that are indistinguishable in terms of coverage error with theoretical, infinite simulation, double-bootstrap confidence intervals may be obtained at substantially less computational expense than by using the standard Monte Carlo approximation method. The intervals retain the simplicity of uniform bootstrap sampling and require no special analysis or computational techniques. Interpolation at the first level of the double bootstrap is shown to have a relatively minor effect on the simulation error.     

Mobilities and peace

This article considers how an increasingly visible set of mobilities has implications for how peace and conflict are imagined and responded to. We are particularly interested in how these mobilities take form in everyday actions and shape new forms of peace and challenge existing ones. The article considers fixed categories associated with orthodox peace such as the international, borders and the state that are predicated on territorialism, centralized governance, and static citizenship. The article can be read as a critique of liberal peacebuilding and a contribution to current debates on migration, space and the everyday. Through conceptual scoping we develop the notion of mobile peace to characterize the fluid ways in which is being constructed through the mobilitiy of people and ideas.     

Relationship of bird richness,abundance and assemblage to the built environment in a small island tropical urban setting: a Suva,Fiji case study

There have been few studies investigating the relationship between the built environment and the status of bird distributions in small island tropical urban areas. We present a study investigating the relationship between bird species richness, abundance and assemblage to the built environment in Suva, Fiji. Field surveys were taken at 54 randomly selected sites throughout the city, stratified by three building density classes and the central business district (CBD). At each site bird counts were recorded, along with environmental data such as average building height, within a 150 m radius. Land-use information was obtained from screen digitized high-resolution satellite imagery within the same radius. Distance to undeveloped patches of land within the urban area was calculated using a GIS. Analysis of the effects of the built environment was carried out for all species, and for exotic and native species separately. Abundance of exotics was significantly higher in the central business district (CBD) than all other urban density classes, and significantly higher than natives in all other density classes. We found a negative relationship between native species richness and distance to undeveloped patches, but no relationship for exotics. Species assemblage was not related to urban density class. We conclude that the status of native and exotic bird species in Suva is similar to what has been found in urban areas in temperate climates, and conservation efforts should focus on minimizing the amount of heavily urbanized “core areas” and protecting undeveloped areas of forested vegetation to improve bird biodiversity in small tropical islands cities.

     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Graphical representation of survival curves in the presence of time-dependent categorical covariates with application to liver transplantation

Graphical representation of survival curves is often used to illustrate associations between exposures and time-to-event outcomes. However, when exposures are time-dependent, calculation of survival probabilities is not straightforward. Our aim was to develop a method to estimate time-dependent survival probabilities and represent them graphically. Cox models with time-dependent indicators to represent state changes were fitted, and survival probabilities were plotted using pre-specified times of state changes. Time-varying hazard ratios for the state change were also explored. The method was applied to data from the Adult-to-Adult Living Donor Liver Transplantation Cohort Study (A2ALL). Survival curves showing a ‘split’ at a pre-specified time t allow for the qualitative comparison of survival probabilities between patients with similar baseline covariates who do and do not experience a state change at time t. Time since state change interactions can be visually represented to reflect changing hazard ratios over time. A2ALL study results showed differences in survival probabilities among those who did not receive a transplant, received a living donor transplant, and received a deceased donor transplant. These graphical representations of survival curves with time-dependent indicators improve upon previous methods and allow for clinically meaningful interpretation.