The Accuracy of Age-specific Population Estimates for Small Areas in Britain

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective.     

Foreign aid,public investment,and the informal economy

This paper examines the absorption of foreign aid in the presence of formal and informal production. Calibrating a two-sector open economy model to 67 aid-recipient countries for 1990–2019, we show that an increase in foreign aid drives resources into the informal sector, and away from the formal sector. With untied aid, the expansion of the informal sector can lead to an economic contraction through the Dutch Disease effect. An economic expansion with an increase in the share of formal production can be attained by re-allocating existing aid to public investment rather than an increase in the aggregate level of aid.     

Effects of Social Context on Deliberate Facial Expressions: Evidence from a Stroop-like Task

Journal of Nonverbal Behavior - Facial expressions contribute to nonverbal communication, social coordination, and interaction. Facial expressions may reflect the emotional state of the expressor,...     

Associations between acoustic features of maternal speech and infants’ emotion regulation following a social stressor

Caregiver voices may provide cues to mobilize or calm infants. This study examined whether maternal prosody predicted changes in infants’ biobehavioral state after the still face, a stressor in which the mother withdraws and reinstates social engagement. Ninety-four dyads participated in the study (infant age 4–8 months). Infants’ heart rate and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (measuring cardiac vagal tone) were derived from an electrocardiogram (ECG). Infants’ behavioral distress was measured by negative vocalizations, facial expressions, and gaze aversion. Mothers’ vocalizations were measured via a composite of spectral analysis and spectro-temporal modulation using a two-dimensional fast Fourier transformation of the audio spectrogram. High values on the maternal prosody composite were associated with decreases in infants’ heart rate (β = ?.26, 95% CI: [?0.46, ?0.05]) and behavioral distress (β = ?.23, 95% CI: [?0.42, ?0.03]), and increases in cardiac vagal tone in infants whose vagal tone was low during the stressor (1 SD below mean β = .39, 95% CI: [0.06, 0.73]). High infant heart rate predicted increases in the maternal prosody composite (β = .18, 95% CI: [0.03, 0.33]). These results suggest specific vocal acoustic features of speech that are relevant for regulating infants’ biobehavioral state and demonstrate mother–infant bi-directional dynamics.     

Tabu search for the real-world carpooling problem

Carpooling is a flexible shared transportation system which can effectively reduce the vehicle numbers and fuel consumption. Although many carpooling systems have been proposed, most of them lack practicality, veracity, and efficiency. In this paper, we propose a new useful variant model of the long-term carpooling problem which involves multiple origins and one destination. Such problems commonly occur in a wide number of carpooling situations in real-world scenarios. Our work is motivated by the practical needs to solve environmental pollution, parking problems, traffic jams and low utilization of resources. A Tabu search algorithm is proposed in this paper to solve the carpooling problem. The proposed algorithm aims at a wide range of passenger distribution and routing problems. The computational results based on real world user data show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, we developed a mobile application based on our carpooling model.     

A signature enrichment design with Bayesian adaptive randomization

Clinical trials in the era of precision cancer medicine aim to identify and validate biomarker signatures which can guide the assignment of individually optimal treatments to patients. In this article, we propose a group sequential randomized phase II design, which updates the biomarker signature as the trial goes on, utilizes enrichment strategies for patient selection, and uses Bayesian response-adaptive randomization for treatment assignment. To evaluate the performance of the new design, in addition to the commonly considered criteria of Type I error and power, we propose four new criteria measuring the benefits and losses for individuals both inside and outside of the clinical trial. Compared with designs with equal randomization, the proposed design gives trial participants a better chance to receive their personalized optimal treatments and thus results in a higher response rate on the trial. This design increases the chance to discover a successful new drug by an adaptive enrichment strategy, i.e. identification and selective enrollment of a subset of patients who are sensitive to the experimental therapies. Simulation studies demonstrate these advantages of the proposed design. It is illustrated by an example based on an actual clinical trial in non-small-cell lung cancer.     

Assessing and communicating heterogeneity of treatment effects for patient subpopulations: The hardest problem there is

Heterogeneity is an enormously complex problem because there are so many dimensions and variables that can be considered when assessing which ones may influence an efficacy or safety outcome for an individual patient. This is difficult in randomized controlled trials and even more so in observational settings. An alternative approach is presented in which the individual patient becomes the “subgroup,” and similar patients are identified in the clinical trial database or electronic medical record that can be used to predict how that individual patient may respond to treatment.     

Pricing and Capacity Rationing with Customer Disappointment Aversion

Customers are averse to disappointment that arises when economic outcomes fall short of expectations. In this study, we study a two‐period model in which the firm may create rationing in either period. In the anticipation of possible disappointment due to stock‐outs, strategic customers decide when to purchase and the firm determines the prices and rationing levels in each period. We explore the impact of disappointment aversion on customers' strategic purchasing behavior and the firm's pricing and rationing decisions. Without disappointment aversion, it is optimal for the firm to adopt a uniform pricing policy without rationing. However, when strategic customers are averse to disappointment, a firm may be able to increase profits with an appropriate level of rationing. We analyze both the mark‐up and mark‐down policies. We show that, in a mark‐down scenario, the firm always benefits from disappointment aversion behavior by using an appropriate level of rationing in a low‐price period. However, in a mark‐up scenario, whether it is beneficial for the firm to induce disappointment aversion behavior depends on how customers frame payoffs in different periods when forming utilities. Particularly, when customers compartmentalize payoffs in different periods to form utilities, the firm should not induce disappointment aversion behavior.     

EDUCATION AND MOBILITY

We show that the length of compulsory education has a causal impact on regional labor mobility. We reach this conclusion from an analysis of a quasi‐exogenous staged Norwegian school reform, using register data on the whole population. Based on the results, we conclude that part of the US–Europe difference, as well as the European North–South difference in labor mobility, is likely to be due to differences in levels of education in the respective regions.