Percentile Related Bounds and Estimator for the Mean of the Negative Binomial Distribution

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for the mean of the negative binomial distribution. These bounds are simple functions of a percentile determined by the shape parameter. The result is then used to obtain a robust estimate of the mean when the shape parameter is known.     

Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. We characterize a broad class of models in which a sharp “Regression Kink Design” (RKD or RK Design) identifies a readily interpretable treatment‐on‐the‐treated parameter (Florens, Heckman, Meghir, and Vytlacil (2008)). We also introduce a “fuzzy regression kink design” generalization that allows for omitted variables in the assignment rule, noncompliance, and certain types of measurement errors in the observed values of the assignment variable and the policy variable. Our identifying assumptions give rise to testable restrictions on the distributions of the assignment variable and predetermined covariates around the kink point, similar to the restrictions delivered by Lee (2008) for the regression discontinuity design. Using a kink in the unemployment benefit formula, we apply a fuzzy RKD to empirically estimate the effect of benefit rates on unemployment durations in Austria.     

Performative family: homosexuality,marriage and intergenerational dynamics in China

Using in‐depth interview data on nominal marriages – legal marriages between a gay man and a lesbian to give the appearance of heterosexuality – this paper develops the concept of performative family to explain the processes through which parents and their adult children negotiate and resolve disagreements in relation to marriage decisions in post‐socialist China. We identify three mechanisms – network pressure, a revised discourse of filial piety and resource leverage – through which parents influence their gay offspring's decision to turn to nominal marriage. We also delineate six strategies, namely minimizing network participation, changing expectations, making partial concessions, drawing the line, delaying decisions and ending the marriage, by which gay people in nominal marriages attempt to meet parental expectations while simultaneously retaining a degree of autonomy. Through these interactions, we argue that Chinese parents and their gay adult children implicitly and explicitly collaborate to perform family, emphasizing the importance of formally meeting society's expectations about marriage rather than substantively yielding to its demands. We also argue that the performative family is a pragmatic response to the tension between the persistent centrality of family and marriage and the rising tide of individualism in post‐socialist China. We believe that our findings highlight the specific predicament of homosexual people. They also shed light on the more general dynamics of intergenerational negotiation because there is evidence that the mechanisms used by parents to exert influence may well be similar between gay and non‐gay people.     

A Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Family Systems Intervention for Managing Pediatric Chronic Illness

Despite recent increases of psychosocial programs for pediatric chronic illness, few studies have explored their economic benefits. This study investigated the costs–benefits of a family systems‐based, psychosocial intervention for pediatric chronic illness (MEND: Mastering Each New Direction). A quasi‐prospective study compared the 12‐month pre–post direct and indirect costs of 20 families. The total cost for program was estimated to $5,320. Families incurred $15,249 less in direct and $15,627 less in indirect costs after MEND. On average, medical expenses reduced by 86% in direct and indirect costs, for a cost–benefit ratio of 0.17. Therefore, for every dollar spent on the program, families and their third payers saved approximately $5.74. Implications for healthcare policy and reimbursements are discussed.     

Driving Under the Influence of Risky Peers: An Experimental Study of Adolescent Risk Taking

Both passive and active social influences may affect adolescents' dangerous driving. In this study, we used an experimental paradigm to delineate these two influences with actual peers. Adolescents completed a simulated driving task, and we measured risk preferences of each member of the peer group. We used hierarchical linear modeling to partition variance in risky decisions. Adolescents experienced many more crashes when they had “passengers” present who reported a strong preference for risk taking and who actively provided decision‐making guidance. Although youth in the passive peer condition were also influenced by the riskiness of their peers, this relation was less strong relative to the active condition. We discuss the need for interventions focussing on active and passive peer influence.     

The Ambivalent Appraisal of Job Demands and the Moderating Role of Job Control and Social Support for Burnout and Job Satisfaction

Social Indicators Research - Within an extended challenge–hindrance framework, it is assumed that job demands are subjectively appraised both as challenges (that is, as working conditions...     

Pediatric Chronic Illness Management: A Qualitative Dyadic Analysis of Adolescent Patient and Parent Illness Narratives

In pediatric chronic illness, little is known about the relational interactions between adolescent patients, parents, and illnesses and how they influence self-management of illness. We conducted interviews with 32 individuals (16 dyads) representing adolescents diagnosed with a chronic illness and their primary parent who had been referred to a psychosocial treatment program for challenges with illness management. Interviews were conducted individually and analyzed dyadically using grounded theory to better understand the relational processes that may be contributing to illness management difficulties. Results include a theory of patient–parent illness responses and how parental illness meanings play a role in adolescent self-management. Results can be used to better understand and treat family relational patterns that may be influencing pediatric illness management challenges.     

Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.