SOME ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF ANTICIPATING TECHNICAL ADVANCE

Using a simple model of a long run profit maximizing firm, we investigated the consequences of foreseeing future technical advance upon the adoption of new technology, scrapping of old, and for price and output of the firm's product. To simplify the analysis and highlight the conclusions, we assumed all technologies embodied in equipment and all equipment infinitely durable. It was shown that the often-used formulas for the unit cost of using capital over a finite (rkj/(l — a^T)) or infinite (rkj) life are appropriate only if the equipment does not become outmoded during its economic life and if there are no demand shifts in that time interval. Otherwise, the current cost of using capital (ex ante) must reflect future lesser or greater earning power of that capital due to outmodedness or demand shifts. Anticipation of technical advance tends to delay scrapping of old equipment and retard installation of new, with current output smaller and price higher than if technology is stagnant. Selection among currently competing technologies is also affected by the course future technical advance is expected to follow. The economic lifetime of capital equipment is independent of the elasticity of demand for the firm's output. On the other hand anticipation of demand expansion tends to partially or wholly offset the effect of anticipating future technical advance, while expected demand decline tends to reinforce it. Uncertainty about when improved technology will appear tends to retard adoption of current best practice technology, to retard scrapping of outmoded technology, restrict output and elevate price, in comparison with pptimal policy when the time of availability is believed known. The optimal policy is unaffected when it is the magnitude of the improvement rather than its timing which is unknown.     

A Mixed Model Approach for Geoadditive Hazard Regression

Abstract.  Mixed model based approaches for semiparametric regression have gained much interest in recent years, both in theory and application. They provide a unified and modular framework for penalized likelihood and closely related empirical Bayes inference. In this article, we develop mixed model methodology for a broad class of Cox-type hazard regression models where the usual linear predictor is generalized to a geoadditive predictor incorporating non-parametric terms for the (log-)baseline hazard rate, time-varying coefficients and non-linear effects of continuous covariates, a spatial component, and additional cluster-specific frailties. Non-linear and time-varying effects are modelled through penalized splines, while spatial components are treated as correlated random effects following either a Markov random field or a stationary Gaussian random field prior. Generalizing existing mixed model methodology, inference is derived using penalized likelihood for regression coefficients and (approximate) marginal likelihood for smoothing parameters. In a simulation we study the performance of the proposed method, in particular comparing it with its fully Bayesian counterpart using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology, and complement the results by some asymptotic considerations. As an application, we analyse leukaemia survival data from northwest England.     

TRENDS IN TOLERANCE TOWARD RIGHTIST AND LEFTIST GROUPS, 1976-1988: EFFECTS OF ATTITUDE CHANGE AND COHORT SUCCESSION

Trends in tolerance are tested for groups on the Right and onthe Left of the political spectrum with 1976–88 GeneralSocial Survey data. Findings are that (1) tolerance increasedtoward leftist groups but not toward rightist groups; (2) succession,the replacement of older cohorts by more recent cohorts, increased tolerance toward leftists and rightists alike, partiallyon account of more recent cohorts' higher levels of education;and (3) attitude change within cohorts reduced tolerance butonly toward rightists. Overall, trends toward greater toleranceseem not to be mere reflections of reduced opposition to unpopulargroups but instead reflect changes in willingness to allow expressionof opposed ideas.     

Sidestepping Capitalism: on the Ottoman Road to Elsewhere*

Abstract Mapping productivist logic derived from the history of capitalism onto the rest of the world blocks the view of alternative systems, and their internal logic. Theories of the capitalist state can capture neither the nature of the non-capitalist states nor those states’ social and economic relations. Our alternative formulation of the Ottoman state disassociates class, property, and distribution from the sphere of production and associates them with the state. Thereby, Ottoman history sheds its petrified cloak and the Ottoman state comes to life; motion, change and class conflict are things Ottoman once again.     

Developing a Community Attitude Assessment Scale

The Community Attitude Assessment Scale (CAAS) measures citizens'attitudes toward 15 community Life Areas (e.g., Education, Employment,and Health) on four dimensions—Importance, Influence,Equality of Opportunity, and Satisfaction. Residents generallyrate these Life Areas high on Importance and Equality of Opportunity,but feel only limited Satisfaction with them and perceive themselvesas having fairly low Influence on their operations. The scaleis discussed as an instrument, and in terms of community theory,attitude theory and research, and public policy applications     

THE ALLOCATIVE EFFECT OF NON-BINDING PRICE CONTROLS*

This paper shows that the imposition of non-binding price controls affects the allocation of resources. Given uncertainty the imposition of such controls will affect expectations of future prices and therefore current investment and output decisions. Non-binding ceilings (floors) will cause future market clearing prices to be higher (lower). More surprisingly they may cause a current period shortage (surplus). The effects of threatened (stochastic) price and profit controls are also examined.