An investigation of duration dependence in the American stock market cycle

This paper investigates the duration dependence of the US stock market cycles. A new classification method for bull and bear market regimes based on the crossing of the market index and its moving average is proposed. We show evidence of duration dependence in whole cycles. The half cycles, however, are found to be duration independent. More importantly, we find that the degree of duration dependence of the US stock market cycles has dropped after the launch of the NASDAQ index.     

Non parametric Bayesian analysis of the two-sample problem with censoring

Testing for differences between two groups is a fundamental problem in statistics, and due to developments in Bayesian non parametrics and semiparametrics there has been renewed interest in approaches to this problem. Here we describe a new approach to developing such tests and introduce a class of such tests that take advantage of developments in Bayesian non parametric computing. This class of tests uses the connection between the Dirichlet process (DP) prior and the Wilcoxon rank sum test but extends this idea to the DP mixture prior. Here tests are developed that have appropriate frequentist sampling procedures for large samples but have the potential to outperform the usual frequentist tests. Extensions to interval and right censoring are considered and an application to a high-dimensional data set obtained from an RNA-Seq investigation demonstrates the practical utility of the method.     

Emergent Management Strategies in a Public Agency: A Case Study of Alternative Fuel Vehicles

The ability of public organizations to invest in emerging technologies is dependent upon the degree to which they can effectively manage the risks of being a lead-user in a political environment. However, little is known about the dimensions and implications of the different forms of risk faced by innovative public organizations as well as the strategies employed to manage them. This paper addresses these issues by studying how one public agency implements a program of replacing its transportation fleet with alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs).

Objects, Words, and Bodies in Space: Bringing Materiality into Cultural Analysis

What can actor-network theory’s approach to analyzing objects offer to cultural sociology? To answer this question we ask a more specific one: How does materiality affect people’s experience of art in a museum exhibition? Research at two museums suggests that non-human agents—object and words—interact with human bodies to choreograph the art encounter. This process works through interactions between two processes of emplacement: physical position and cognitive location. Position guides location in the process of meaning-making, a relationship mediated by three mechanisms: distance, legibility, and orientation.     

Collateral coverage: media images of Afghan refugees, 2001

The paper is concerned with media coverage of the on-going refugee crisis in Afghanistan. It begins by looking at how the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center of 11 September 2001 had the result of stimulating renewed media interest in Afghan refugees. Paying special regard to the role of visual images in the reporting of disasters, the paper reviews the narrative strategies adopted by television news. It considers the factors that have instigated media response by examining some general issues arising from the media coverage of disasters. While the central focus of the study is BBC Television News Special Reports on the Afghan refugee crisis, selective comparisons are made with other television broadcast channels, Sky News and Euronews.

Based on the Afghan case study, I propose three main constituent factors contributing to the likelihood of effective media coverage of a refugee crisis. Firstly, in order to attract Western press coverage it is necessary for the crisis to be of such a magnitude that it cannot be ignored; or else it is necessary for it to be perceived as having some obvious connection with Western concerns. Secondly, the story will gain airtime if the nature of the crisis is such that it produces dramatic imagery – pictures with impact. Finally, if the style of the media coverage is sufficiently innovative it will stimulate interest in the viewers. The paper concludes with a critical review of media examples that break away from conventional news formulae.     

Detection and management of mood disorders in the maternity setting: The Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines

BackgroundMood disorders arising in the perinatal period (conception to the first postnatal year), occur in up to 13% of women. The adverse impact of mood disorders on mother, infant and family with potential long-term consequences are well documented. There is a need for clear, evidence-based, guidelines for midwives and other maternity care providers.AimTo describe the process undertaken to develop the Australian Clinical Practice Guidelines for Depression and Related Disorders in the Perinatal Period and to highlight the key recommendations and their implications for the maternity sector.MethodUsing NHMRC criteria, a rigorous systematic literature review was undertaken synthesising the evidence used to formulate graded guideline recommendations. Where there was insufficient evidence for recommendations, Good Practice Points were formulated. These are based on lower quality evidence and/or expert consensus.FindingsThe quality of the evidence was good in regards to the use of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and psychological interventions, but limited as regards medication use and safety perinatally. Recommendations were made for staff training in psychosocial assessment; universal screening for depression across the perinatal period; and the use of evidence based psychological interventions for mild to moderate depression postnatally. Good Practice Points addressed the use of comprehensive psychosocial assessment – including risk to mother and infant, and consideration of the mother–infant interaction – and gave advice around the use and safety of psychotropic medications in pregnancy and breastfeeding. In contrast to their international counterparts, the Australian guidelines emphasize a more holistic, woman and family centred approach to the management of mental health and mood disorders in the perinatal setting.ConclusionThe development of these Guidelines is a first step in translating evidence into practice and providing Australian midwives and other maternity care providers with clear guidance on the psychosocial management of women and families.