Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors

A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors.     

Systemic assessment of families through individual treatment: a teaching module

A family therapist's training and practice frequently calls for providing systemic treatment with individuals. Family therapy education has not incorporated specific learning experiences to prepare trainees for the difficulties incurred in this application of systemic work. This article describes an instructional module to prepare trainees for conducting a systemic assessment in individual treatment.     

Getting New Staff to Stay: The Mediating Role of Organizational Identification

Newcomer turnover is a major cost to organizations, and the quality of new employees' experiences in the first few months is critical in determining whether they decide to stay or leave. In a study that focused on the first stage of newcomer socialization, we investigate the impact of perceptions of social validation from the team and the team leader, and perceived fairness of treatment on newcomers' identification with their work team and the organization, specifically measuring the group self‐investment components of identification. The mediating role of these levels of group self‐investment and of the imbalance (i.e. difference) between levels of self‐investment on turnover intentions was also tested. New staff (N=569) joining a large public‐sector organization completed a questionnaire about their socialization experiences in their first 6 months of their employment. Structural equation modelling revealed that social validation by the team and team leaders, and fairness of treatment, predict increased investment with the organization and with the team. Organizational‐level self‐investment and an imbalance in favour of investment with the organization over that of the team mediated decreases in turnover intentions. We conclude that organizations should provide newcomers with validation that promotes identification with their organization during this critical stage of socialization.     

How to better identify the true managerial performance: State of the art using DEA

Our motivation is to detail a potential improvement on the three-stage analysis published by Fried et al. [Accounting for environmental effects and statistical noise in data envelopment analysis. Journal of Productivity Analysis 2002;17:157–74] that can distinguish true performers from those that may be advantaged by favourable environments or measurement errors. The method starts with data envelopment analysis (DEA), and continues with stochastic frontier analysis to explain the variation in organisational performance in terms of the operating environment, statistical noise and managerial efficiency. It concludes with DEA again using adjusted data to reveal a measure of performance based on management efficiency only. Our proposed contributions include (i) a comprehensive approach where total input and output slacks are identified simultaneously for non-radial inefficiencies before levelling the playing field, (ii) identifying percent adjustments attributable to the environment and statistical noise, and (iii) using a fully units-invariant DEA model.     

The Validity of Observational Measures in Detecting Optimal Maternal Communication Styles: Evidence from European Americans and Latinos

This study examined the sensitivity of an observational coding system for assessing positive and negative maternal behaviors of Latino and European American mothers toward their adolescent children. Ninety Latino (54 Spanish speaking and 35 English speaking) and 20 European American mother–adolescent dyads participated in an observational study of conversations about sexuality, AIDS, and conflicts. Associations were examined between observed maternal positive and negative behaviors and adolescent‐reported relationship quality. Results indicated that maternal negative responsiveness was negatively associated with relationship quality for all ethnic/language groups. However, maternal positive responsiveness was related to relationship quality for European Americans but not for Latinos. These findings suggest a need for a broader definition of positive parenting in Latino families.     

SOURCES OF INFORMATION ABOUT HIV/AIDS AND PERCEIVED RISK OF INFECTION AMONG HETEROSEXUAL YOUNG ADULTS: 1989 AND 1994

This paper reports a study of sources of information about HIV/AIDS and trust of the sources among heterosexuals in 1989 (113 females and 91 males) and 1994 (185 females and 66 males). We also examined whether perceived personal risk of HIV infection was predicted by sources of information about HIV/AIDS, trust of the sources, how informed about AIDS people believed they were, and perceived risk of infection to others, as well as whether there was a relationship between perceived personal risk and safe sex behaviour. Participants received most of their information about AIDS/HIV from magazines, newspapers, and television, but placed most trust on sources such as doctors and HIV/AIDS organisations. Perceived personal risk was influenced most by perceived risk to friends and to people with the same sexual practices. In the 1994 sample, perceived personal risk was correlated with the amount of condom use among participants with sexual experience. These results indicate ther has been relative stability across a five-year period. They also point to the continuing discrepancy among young heterosexuals between the most-used and most-trusted sources of information, as well as to the importance of peer influence on perceptions of personal risk of HIV infection.     

The Virgin Mary and Revolution in Saint-Domingue: The Charisma of Romaine-la-Prophétesse

Drawing on historical analyses of the role of religion in the Haitian Revolution and on neo-Weberian discussions of charisma, this article offers new insights into the background of Romaine-la-Prophétesse, a religious leader of slave insurrections in Saint-Domingue whose campaign lasted from the summer of 1791 to March of the following year. Worsley and Bourdieu's interactionist model of charismatic authority is used to orient consideration of the Kongolese religious and ideological influences on Romaine's movement and his radically subversive appropriation of the symbol of the Virgin Mary. The article suggests that Romaine-la-Prophétesse may have himself been native Kongolese, while clearly demonstrating that his message drew heavily on Kongolese thought, in which terms is his charismatic authority to be understood.     

Back to basics: Re-examination of Demand-Control Theory of occupational stress

The Demand-Control model of occupational stress posits an interaction between job demands and job control predicting psychological strain, but previous research has found such an interaction only rarely or inconsistently. Such research, however, has often failed to measure either demands or strain faithfully to the model's constructs, or has simply failed to test for a statistical interaction. The present study corrected these shortcomings by going back to basics. Using a sample of 115 employees in a manufacturing company, it operationalized the variables more consistently with their original conceptualizations. However, when the hypothesized Demand-Control interaction was then tested, it still failed. Outcomes other than psychological strain (e.g. job dissatisfaction) were related negatively rather than positively to demands. This highlights the difference between psychological strain and dissatisfaction and casts doubt on models positing dissatisfaction as an intervening variable between stressors and strains.     

The Place of Single Session Family Consultations: Five Years’ Experience in Canberra

Open Day, in the form of two half day single session family clinics, has operated weekly in the ACT Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service since April 1993 and over a thousand families have been seen. Clinicians are often resistant to the concept of single sessions and frequently overestimate the amount of assistance that clients feel they require. However in an era of sharply increasing demand for services, selective use of single family sessions for milder problems, screened by a telephone intake process, has value to both families and workers. Telephone follow-ups of 100 families in 1994 and 70 families in 1996 found that single session family interviews were well accepted by the large majority of families seen. Clinicians see the program as reducing pressure from clients for early attention, enhancing client motivation when seen at crisis times, providing readily available consultation support from peers, increasing learning opportunities and building inter-disciplinary team work.