Fertility decision making,unintended births,and the social drift hypothesis: A longitudinal study

To explore relationships between fertility intentions and subsequent childbearing, data were collected from 334 mothers in a metropolitan area in 1963 and again in 1971, allowing for a time interval of eight years for testing a series of hypotheses on fertility control. The results suggested that social psychological obstacles to decision making should be taken into account as potential qualifiers of the more rational models of fertility behavior currently prevalent in the literature. The alienation variable of meaninglessness was examined in conjunction with education, age at marriage, marital duration, and previous parity. The analyses indicated that pregnancies for many women are experienced as occurrences, happenings, or unintended events within a social psychological context of social drift.Research support pursuant to contract NIH-71-2028 with the Center for Population Research, NICHD, is gratefully acknowledged, as is the assistance of David W. Chilson in the processing of the data. Request reprints from either author, Sociology Department, Bowling Green University, Bowling Green, Ohio 43403.     

SIMULATION OF INFORMATION CHOICE

Beginning with the information economics framework and a multi-period decision model [15], this paper considers the use of computer simulation methods within an information system choice environment. Actual decision behavior is replaced by optimal decision rules, and simulation is used to evaluate the effects of parameter changes in the environmental model. Simulation is shown to be functional (1) in estimating the value of alternative information structures within a fifteen period decision model and (2) in providing sensitivity and statistical data which would be useful both for different decision maker utility functions and for a variety of information system design questions.     

A social-psychological analysis of residential electricity consumption: the impact of minimal justification techniques

To explore the impact of the foot-in-the-door technique on residential energy conservation 66 homeowners were asked to curtail their consumption of electricity by 10%. In the Foot-in-the-Door condition this target request was preceded by a more moderate one to answer a short energy conservation questionnaire. Homeowners in the Second Request Only condition simply received the conservation request while those in the First Request Only condition received the questionnaire alone. These groups were compared to a Control group of homeowners who were never asked to comply to either request. The groups did not differ in electricity consumption during the 2 week baseline period or in their percentage change from baseline during the 4 week request period. However, throughout the 12 week follow-up period homeowners in all three request groups consumed significantly less electricity than Controls. In addition, the Foot-in-the-Door group contained significantly more Conservers than any other group. These findings were contrasted with the results of behavioral energy studies emphasizing strong external justifications. The implications of minimal justification techniques for producing long-term maintenance of energy conserving behaviors and for promoting their occurrence across a large population of individuals were also discussed.     

ETHNOGRAPHIC CONTENT ANALYSIS OF COUPLE AND THERAPIST PERCEPTIONS IN A REFLECTING TEAM SETTING*

An ethnographic content analysis was used to examine couple and therapist perspectives about the use and value of reflecting team practice. Postsession ethnographic interviews form both couples and therapists were examined for the frequency of themes in seven categories that emerged form a previous ethnographic study of reflecting teams (Sells, Smith, Coe, Yoshioka, & Robbins, 1994). The study demonstrated that quantitative numerical data and qualitiative narrative data can examine the same phenomenon from multiple perspecrives and allow for greater accuracy and stability in study findings. Ethnographic content analysis is briefly cosntrasted with conventional modes of quantitative cosntent analysis to illustrate its usefulness and rationale for discovering emergent patterns, themes, emphases, and process using both inductive and deductive methods of inquiry.     

A walk on the applied side: Sociology and training research

This article presents a topic that sociologists rarely research but which holds great promise for the future—training. Sociologists spend a good deal of time investigating education but generally neglect the field of training. Little effort is spent on investigating training, why it’s done, how it’s done, what effect it has, who gets it, when it’s appropriate, or where it takes place. Sociologists tend to leave these issues to psychologists of various specialties or to professional trainers and training developers. The article identifies some major training-related issues, sociological specialty areas that apply to training-related research, areas of research that are of likely interest to sociologists and what sociologists might do to get involved in training research. He is on loan from the Armstrong Laboratory, Technical Training Research Division at Brooks AFB, TX, 78235. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Air Force or the Department of Defense. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Southwest Sociological Association Annual Conference in March 1993.     

A Bayes-type estimator for the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparison

A Bayes-type estimator is proposed for the worth parameter π_i and for the treatment effect parameter ln π_i in the Bradley-Terry Model for paired comparison. In contrast to current Bayes estimators which require iterative numberical calculations, this estimator has a closed form expression. This estimation technique is also extended to obtain estimators for the Luce Multiple Comparison Model. An application of this technique to a 2³ factorial experiment with paired comparisons is presented.     

Polish-Jewish Relations 1903–1914: The View from the Chancellery

This article discusses Wajda’s discourse on class. First it identifies the most important problems the concept raises when applied to Wajda’s characters and narratives. Next, it discusses the director’s representation and evaluation of three types of characters: the intelligentsia, the working class, and individuals who fall in between these two groups. In addition, the article analyzes how the representation of class is influenced by Wajda’s attitude toward gender and ethnicity. It concludes that his attitude to the class system in Poland is conservative and identifies some of the factors that influenced him. This article is an exploration of these issues, rather than an analysis of his films. Priority is given to films set during and after the second World War.     

Auxiliary variables for Bayesian inference in multi-class queueing networks

Queueing networks describe complex stochastic systems of both theoretical and practical interest. They provide the means to assess alterations, diagnose poor performance and evaluate robustness across sets of interconnected resources. In the present paper, we focus on the underlying continuous-time Markov chains induced by these networks, and we present a flexible method for drawing parameter inference in multi-class Markovian cases with switching and different service disciplines. The approach is directed towards the inferential problem with missing data, where transition paths of individual tasks among the queues are often unknown. The paper introduces a slice sampling technique with mappings to the measurable space of task transitions between the service stations. This can address time and tractability issues in computational procedures, handle prior system knowledge and overcome common restrictions on service rates across existing inferential frameworks. Finally, the proposed algorithm is validated on synthetic data and applied to a real data set, obtained from a service delivery tasking tool implemented in two university hospitals.