Simple methods for evaluating and comparing binary experiments

We consider a confidence parametrization of binary information sources in terms of appropriate likelihood ratios. This parametrization is used for Bayesian belief updates and for the equivalent comparison of binary experiments. In contrast to the standard parametrization of a binary information source in terms of its specificity and its sensitivity, one of the two confidence parameters is sufficient for a Bayesian belief update conditional on a signal realization. We introduce a confidence-augmented receiver operating characteristic for comparisons of binary experiments for a class of “balanced” decision problems, relative to which the confidence order offers a higher resolution than Blackwell’s informativeness order.

Where observation is concerned, Chance favors only the prepared mind. —Louis Pasteur (1822–1895).

     

Recurrence relations for moments of different orders of extremes from gamma distribution

Certain recurrence relations for the moments of different orders of the largest order statistic from a gamma distribution with shape parameter p are obtained. By using this it is shown that for obtaining the moment of any order of each order statistic of a sample of size n from the gamma distribution, one has to evaluate at most n-2 single integrals.     

The Employment Experience of Refugees in the Netherlands1

This study focuses on the economically disadvantaged position of refugees. We use survey data of refugees from Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, and the former Yugoslavia in the Netherlands, to analyze refugees’ odds of employment and their occupational status. In line with human capital and social capital theory, we find that host country specific education, work experience, language proficiency, and contacts with natives are positively related to the chances of employment and occupational status. The study shows that health problems, integration courses, and the time spent in refugee reception centers form important additional explanations of the economic integration of refugees.     

Multicollinearity and the value of a priori information

A measure of multicollinearity is defined which is useful in evaluating maintained hypotheses and aiding estimator selection as it suggests when a non-traditional estimator proposed by Bock (1975) is minimax and dominates ordinary least squares. An example is used to illustrate the presented methodology.     

Continuing professional development after qualification--partnerships,pitfalls and potential

Social work educators, employers and policy-makers have increasingly recognised the importance of continuing professional development. The UK social work qualification (DipSW) provides a broad base of practice skills, knowledge and values. However, increasingly complex work, frequent legislative and policy changes, research findings and challenges of working in a societal context of increasing change and diversity all contribute to the necessity of developing strategies for continuing professional development which adequately equip social workers. Such education cannot be alienated from social workers' employment context, and thus needs to remain mindful of employers' needs while concurrently maintaining academic rigour. This paper explores the development and delivery of a year-long post-qualifying training course run collaboratively between West Sussex Social and Caring Services and University College Chichester. It places some of the experiences of tutors, candidates and Training and Development Officers within the wider context of social work education, training and the delivery of social care. In exploring some of the contradictions and tensions experienced it seeks to further understand the challenge of delivering effective training in an increasingly complex and fragmented arena. Finally, it considers possible future developments, mindful of future changes in UK social work education.     

Rethinking Marketing Programs for Emerging Markets

This article points to a fundamental inconsistency in the emerging market strategies of multinational firms. On the one hand, they seek billions of new consumers in the emerging markets of China, India, Indonesia, and Latin America—on the other, their marketing programs are scarcely adapted for these markets. The result is low market penetration, disappointing market shares and poor profitability. These multinationals are trapped by their own devices in gilded cages, serving the affluent few but ignoring the potential of the billions of new consumers that attracted them in the first place. In this article we propose that, in order to attract billions of new consumers, the marketing programs of multinationals need to be rethought from the ground up. We identify three key factors that characterize emerging markets: (1) low incomes, (2) variability in consumers and infrastructure, and (3) the relative cheapness of labor, which is often substituted for capital. We draw on numerous case studies from around the world to illustrate how to incorporate these realities into marketing programs. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of such an approach for the multinational’s core strategic assumptions.     

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum

Volume Contents

Forthcoming in Sociological Forum