FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

The Peltzman hypothesis revisited: An isolated evaluation of offsetting driver behavior

Nearly all of the previous investigations of driver behavior under varying safety conditions have only been able to evaluate the issue of offsetting driver behavior indirectly. Some studies note that engineering estimates of the aggregate improvements of automobile safety enhancements are substantively larger than economic estimates of the same effects. Others have found that non-occupants such as motorcyclists and pedestrians are under greater risk of incurring accidents when automobiles are made safer. Although these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that drivers respond to safety enhancements by driving less safely (having been instilled with a sense of greater protection provided by the safety improvements), they do not provide a direct evaluation of the relationship between driving environment and driver behavior. Thus, factors other than offsetting behavior may be generating these observed results. A few studies have tested the offsetting behavior hypothesis more directly, but only under highly specific safety conditions and narrow measures of driver behavior. This article undertakes an isolated analysis of driver behavior under varying safety conditions, with data which allows for more general changes to safety conditions and broader measures of driver behavior. Estimates obtained from the evaluation of individual accident reports lend support to the offsetting behavior hypothesis and imply that both aggressive behavior and nonaggressive (inattentive) driving behavior are likely to increase as the driving environment becomes safer.     

Modeling the Niger Delta Insurgency

Nigeria's oil guarantees its role in the global economy; however, the state's overwhelming weaknesses perpetuate a high level of volatility vis-à-vis the potential for an immediate disruption of the national, regional, and global environment. This study presents a current qualitative analysis of Nigeria to produce a model that characterizes current conditions in the state and the state response to the nefarious acts in the delta region. This model will serve as a baseline for a significant iteration of the model that reflects the delta region counter-insurgency at various levels of strength: a what-if scenario of the region with an increase of state security over southern separatists, insurgents seeking to gain control of the oil assets. The conjectured model serves to inform/educate decision and policy makers in developing proactive, effective strategies to counter existent and potential threats in the Niger Delta.     

Determinants of presidential position taking in Congress, 1949–1995

In this paper we seek to explain the activity presidential position taking on roll call votes in the House. Position taking may help presidents pursue their policy agendas, but time and available resources constrain their ability to take positions. Even though position taking is a discretionary presidential action, it occurs in the legislative arena and, thus, presidents must consider elements in both institutions as well as outside conditions when making this decision. Accordingly, we posit a multiple perspectives approach to explain the number of presidential positions on votes in the House. Our multivariate two-stage least squares regression reveals that variables from all three environments (executive, legislative and exogenous) within our multiple perspectives approach are necessary to adequately explain presidential position taking overall and when divided according to domestic and foreign policy positions.     

Hunger Reduction in China: An Analysis of Contextual Factors

In recent times, China has significantly reduced hunger in its populace. The main objective of this paper was to analyze some of the contextual socioeconomic factors contributing to the reduction of hunger in China, using Qualitative Interpretative Meta‐Synthesis (QIMS). The results revealed that China has followed a broad‐based and multispectral approach to reduce hunger. Factors, such as poverty alleviation; social safety nets for disadvantaged villagers; agricultural development and land reforms; regional development and equity in development activities; infrastructural development; and political‐economic reform and sustainable growth were influential in reducing hunger in China. Poverty is attributed as one of the principal contributors and is interlinked with many other dimensions. The findings of this paper are a useful guide to the Chinese government, policy‐makers, international organizations, and development practitioners.     

White international transracial adoptive mothers' reflections on race

Through the use of qualitative data analysis of in‐depth interviews with eight white international transracial adoptive mothers, four properties emerged that describe these mothers' racial views. These properties varied in the degree that they integrated perspectives different from the white dominant culture. The mothers did not experience significant changes in their perspective on race subsequent to adoption. This paper includes a discussion of white racial identity and implications for social work practice with transracially adoptive parents.     

Choices at various levels of uncertainty: An experimental test of the restated diversification theorem

Our “Restated diversification theorem” (Skogh and Wu, 2005) says that risk-averse agents may pool risks efficiently without assignment of subjective probabilities to outcomes, also at genuine uncertainty. It suffices that the agents presume that they face equal risks. Here, the theorem is tested in an experiment where the probability of loss, and the information about this probability, varies. The result supports our theorem. Moreover, it tentatively supports an evolutionary theory of the insurance industry—starting with mutual pooling at uncertainty, turning into insurance priced ex ante when actuarial information is available.