Options and sequences: Europe’s demographic patterns

It is argued in this lecture that Ryder’s approach to the study of the role of the cohort in social change is too narrow. Cohorts do not only permit change; they actively create the options succeeding cohorts have to choose from. Through its own choice from amongst the options perceived, each cohort both limits and enriches the options of the next. It is through the choice people make with regard to life shaping demographic events that they group themselves into ‘mental’ cohorts. The course of demographic events in Western Europe in the postwar period is difficult to understand if one does not appreciate that these events form a sequence. A sequence generated by the quite specific option(s) each ‘mental’ cohort, through its own choice, created for the next. Current demographic patterns in Europe have to be interpreted in terms of differences in social and cultural heritage of the countries concerned, and in terms of the differences in options perceived and selected.     

Geographic information systems, spatial network analysis, and contraceptive choice

How does family planning accessibility affect contraceptive choice? In this paper we use techniques of spatial analysis to develop measures of family planning accessibility, and evaluate the effects of these geographically derived measures in a multilevel statistical model of temporary method choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. In our analyses we combine spatial data obtained from maps and Global Positioning System (GPS) readings with sociodemographic data from surveys and administrative records. The new measures reveal (1) important travel time effects even when family planning outlets are close by; (2) independent effects of road composition; (3) the relevance of alternative sources of family planning supply; and (4) the importance of the local history of program placement.     

The notion of population economics

Economic literature has not adequately addressed population problems and growth models have assumed the population growth rate as an exogenous constant. Life expectancy and the quality of documentation over a long period have corrected the problem of nonstationary population, however. In addition, mathematical and computational possibilities have been increased thereby allowing population issues to be considered endogenous and variable in models. Recognizing that population changes affect supply and demand and should be studied, a group of economists have found a society to address such population problems--the European Society for Population Economics. Within the realm of population economics are subfields that should be included in any studies. For example, economists must examine household behavior and its influence on having or not having children. Another subfield includes studying the effects of changes in birth rates. For example, birth rates affect age distribution and each age distribution has a typical distribution of demand. A young society would demand schooling and child care, while an old society would need elderly care and health facilities. To enhance optimum population growth, policy makers have several options. For example, family allowances and child care influence procreation, but they require an increase in state expenditures and taxes. Providing health care for all members of society improves the quality of the population and its size. Implementing a migration policy also increases the population. Education and retraining strengthens the quality of the labor force, but some argue that it does not lead to procreation.     

Developing a National Index of Subjective Wellbeing: The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index has beendesigned as a new barometer of Australians'satisfaction with their lives, and life inAustralia. It is based on, and develops, thetheoretical model of subjective wellbeinghomeostasis. The Index comprises two sub-scalesof Personal and National Wellbeing. Data werecollected through a nationally representativesample of 2,000 people in April/May 2001.Factor analysis confirmed the integrity of thetwo sub-scales and, confirming empiricalexpectation, the average level of lifesatisfaction was 75.5 percent of the scalemaximum score. Group comparisons revealed thatall age groups maintained their Personal Indexscore within the normal range. In addition,people in country areas were more satisfiedwith their personal lives than city-dwellers,but less satisfied about the nationalsituation, and people who had recentlyexperienced a strong positive event evidenced arise in wellbeing, whereas those who hadexperienced a strong negative event evidencedwellbeing in the low-normal range. It is arguedthat these data generally support homeostatictheory. However, an unusual result was thatfemales were more satisfied with their ownlives than males. A tentative argument isadvanced that this may represent aconstitutional difference. It is concluded thatthe Australian Unity Wellbeing Index haspotential as a valid, reliable and sensitiveinstrument to monitor national wellbeing.     

Estimation of average mortality under censoring and truncation

In demography mortality is usually reported through averages over time intervals. If average mortality is estimated from censored or truncated data, then direct methods of estimation may create biases that depend on the censoring or truncation distribution. Such discretization errors may be avoided by estimating survival curves first in continuous time, and then discretizing the estimators. We illustrate the different methods on data of the form obtained from family reconstitution.     

Racial differences in birth health risk: A quantitative genetic approach

In the United States the gap between black and white babies' birth weights has remained largely unexplained. Rather than trying to measure all relevant variables, we used a genetically informative design to study the relative importance of genetic and environmental factors. Employing multiple indicators of "birth health risk," we found that the racial differences increased with the magnitude of the shared environmental effects. This suggested that possible genetic effects would not pertain to fetal genes, although genes affecting the mother's physical or physiological characteristics could be important because they contribute to shared environment in our analysis.     

Low socioeconomic status increases effects of negative life events on antenatal anxiety and depression

Problem

Low socioeconomic status and prior negative life events are documented risk factors for antenatal anxiety and depression, preterm birth and birth weight. We aimed to asses whether the adverse effects of prior negative life events increase with lower socioeconomic status and which aspects of socioeconomic status are most relevant.