‘Closing the Gap’ in Indigenous life expectancies: what if we succeed?

In 2007–2008 the Council of Australian Governments agreed to six ambitious targets for addressing longstanding disparities between Indigenous and other Australians in health, education and employment outcomes. The ‘National Integrated Strategy for Closing the Gap on Indigenous Disadvantage’ (colloquially ‘Closing the Gap’) includes the goal of eliminating life expectancy gaps within a generation. This policy says nothing about what changes in the demographic structure of the population might be expected should there be even partial success towards this ambitious target. Information is required to analyse age and sex shifts for their effects on service demand and provision. In this study we apply cohort component projections modelling to the Northern Territory, the Australian jurisdiction with the largest Indigenous component in its population and the largest life expectancy gaps, to assess the demographic effects of closing the gap within a generation. Three scenarios are modelled: (1) No changes to Indigenous life expectancies from those estimated in 2010; (2) Complete success in closing the gap within a generation; and (3) A continuation of current forecasts about how Indigenous life expectancies will change into the future. Although closing the gap would only produce a small increase in the size of the next generation’s Indigenous population, over and above that projected with lower life expectancy scenarios, it would result in substantial changes in age compositions, with associated shifts in various demographic indices. These are pertinent to the planning and funding of core services into the future.     

Perceived Racial Discrimination as a Predictor of Health Behaviors: the Moderating Role of Gender

Perceived racial discrimination (PRD) has been implicated in undermining the mental and physical health of racial/ethnic minorities (e.g., Williams et al. in Am J Public Health 93:200–208, 2003; Wong et al. in J Pers 71:1197–1232, 2003). Researchers have begun to explore the indirect role of health behaviors as one factor in helping to explain this relationship. The goal of the present study was to examine the relationship between PRD and a wide range of health behaviors using a prospective, longitudinal design and to explore the role of gender in moderating these relationships. Using data from the Maryland Adolescent Development in Context Study, we examined the relationship between adolescent PRD (accumulated across ages 14–21) and health behaviors (i.e., diet, substance use, exercise) at age 30 in a sample of middle-class black men and women. Using structural equation modeling, results revealed that more cumulative PRD during adolescence was associated with less healthy eating, more substance use (among men), and more exercise (among women) in young adulthood. Implications of these findings for understanding the role of health behaviors in explaining the link between PRD and health outcomes are considered.     

Clarifying Types of Uncertainty: When Are Models Accurate,and Uncertainties Small?

Professor Aven has recently noted the importance of clarifying the meaning of terms such as "scientific uncertainty" for use in risk management and policy decisions, such as when to trigger application of the precautionary principle. This comment examines some fundamental conceptual challenges for efforts to define "accurate" models and "small" input uncertainties by showing that increasing uncertainty in model inputs may reduce uncertainty in model outputs; that even correct models with "small" input uncertainties need not yield accurate or useful predictions for quantities of interest in risk management (such as the duration of an epidemic); and that accurate predictive models need not be accurate causal models.     

A new variant of dual-record population estimation with an application in remote indigenous communities

Dual-record system methods are commonly used as a basis for population estimation. A basic assumption is that the units sampled are drawn only from the population to be estimated. This assumption cannot be met for remote Indigenous communities in Australia. A new variant of dual-record population estimation is presented, which relies on the availability of specific additional information to relax the assumption of perfect frame specification. This variant is applied to two remote Indigenous communities in the Northern Territory of Australia, using locally available data sources. Further theoretical exploration of this method is presented along with possible applications in estimating area-enumerated populations and census coverage.     

Control via concentration?: Political and business evidence

This paper explores the relationship between concentration and control, in terms of both markets and hierarchies in economics and their analogues of polities and parties in politics. It is argued that the relationship is not always a positive one. In some cases the relationship is negative and in other cases there is no relationship at all. Insight into the determinants of the nature of this relationship can be gained by explaining apparent inconsistencies which appear when contrasting the economic and political spheres. For example, why is it that a market which meets the criteria for perfect competition—many small producers—is considered socially optimal but not so a polity comprised of many small parties? The two-party system, considered desirable in our national politics, corresponds to the much maligned duopoly in the economic sphere. This paper posits that there are three major types of systems found in both the economic and political spheres, which apply to both levels of aggregation—firms and markets, and parties and polities, respectively—and which have different implications for the relationship between concentration and control. It is also argued that these two levels of aggregation, however useful or necessary for purposes of discussion, are not analytically distinct.     

AP(E)L as a guidance and support mechanism in the Diploma in Social Work

In order to contextualize the multi-interpretative paradigms that characterize the present HE, we propose a model in which the Assessment of Prior and Experiential Learning, AP(E)L, focuses more on assessment and less on accreditation, with a four phase application of the interrelationship between AP(E)L and Learning Development for pre-entry, entry, on-programme and exit of a student's time within a programme of study. In turn, this brings into focus the way experience has now become a contested space that reflects paradigm shifts in the focus of learning and the way learning is to be acknowledged in the new universities. This account details the application of this model within the social work subject area at the University of East London. In many ways, this reflects not only the pre-supposition, central to the AP(E)L policy, that learning should be recognized wherever it takes place, but also the shift from interior intellectual systems to a more open epistemology that has been shaped by the relationship of knowledge producers and knowledge users in specific markets.     

Intercultural Experience as an Impediment of Trust: Examining the Impact of Intercultural Experience and Social Trust Culture on Institutional Trust in Government

Government is an important institution in every society, but public trust in government has been declining worldwide. Like social trust, institutional trust in government manifests in two forms—goodwill-based (based on intentions and purposes) and competence-based (based on competence and performance). Using archival data of the AsiaBarometer (2004), I found a cross-level interaction effect of intercultural experience and social trust culture on goodwill-based, but not competence-based, institutional trust in government. Intercultural experience was negatively related to goodwill-based institutional trust in government within regions of low social trust but not within regions of high social trust. Both types of institutional trust in government within regions of high social trust were lower than those within regions of low social trust. Furthermore, both types of institutional trust in government were positively related to socioeconomic, public, and personal life satisfaction. These findings shed light on the tension between institutional trust in government and social trust as well as a government’s dilemma posed by intercultural experience.