Clarifying Types of Uncertainty: When Are Models Accurate,and Uncertainties Small?

Professor Aven has recently noted the importance of clarifying the meaning of terms such as "scientific uncertainty" for use in risk management and policy decisions, such as when to trigger application of the precautionary principle. This comment examines some fundamental conceptual challenges for efforts to define "accurate" models and "small" input uncertainties by showing that increasing uncertainty in model inputs may reduce uncertainty in model outputs; that even correct models with "small" input uncertainties need not yield accurate or useful predictions for quantities of interest in risk management (such as the duration of an epidemic); and that accurate predictive models need not be accurate causal models.     

Energy and the economy -a global and national analysis

When energy-GDP relationship is analyzed on a global scale for any one-time period the correlations derived are always very high. Yet these results are deceiving-and of lattle practical value-because of regional and income differences and the dynamic and highly individual behavior of the various countries. Consequently, the only meaningful approach is to analyze energy-GDP patterns over a long time on an individual country basis and to do so by defining GDP in terms of national currency.Correlations obtained by the latter method are uniformly and extremely high enabling a planner who can forecast the GDP levels of a country with some confidence to derive energy consumption from an appropriate regression equation with almost a pinpoint precision.Needless to say that these results, reflecting the developmentsduring a highly stable period of economic growth and low-and fairly stable-energy prices, should be applied with caution, especially as far as long-range projections are concerned. Each country's energy-GDP pattern is determined predominantly by climate, orientation of the economy, efficiency of industrial and household conversions and the share of non-productive energy uses.     

Issue management and crisis management: An integrated,non-linear,relational construct

Despite extensive attempts to define and differentiate issue management and crisis management, the definitional approach – and linear life-cycle models which focus on the elements – fail to capture the full dynamics of the disciplines. Instead of a focus on definitions, this paper proposes a non-linear, relational construct which considers issue and crisis management in the context of interdependent activities and clusters of activity which must be managed at different stages. This includes the role of issue management in both the pre-crisis and post-crisis phases. The model addresses some of the limitations of linear approaches and helps analyze the outcomes and overlaps between activity clusters in order to optimize strategic relationships and enhance bottom-line effectiveness.     

Child,Parent, and Situational Correlates of Familial Ethnic/Race Socialization

This study examines child, parent, and situational correlates of familial ethnic/race socialization using nationally representative data gathered as part of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998 – 1999 (ECLS‐K). The ECLS‐K sample (N = 18,950) includes White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, American Indian, and multiracial kindergarteners, with survey data available at the child, parent/guardian, teacher, and school level. We find that child correlates such as race and gender, parent correlates such as education and warmth of parent‐child relationship, and situational correlates such as percent of minorities at the child’s school and cultural event participation influence how often family members discuss children’s ethnic/racial heritage with them. We advocate for continued research of contextualized family dynamics.     

Narrative Group Therapy with the Seriously Mentally Ill: A Case Study

This paper describes a process set up to facilitate a group of people living with a serious mental illness. The group was based on Anthony's notions of recovery, and incorporated a narrative approach, while remaining consistent with Northen's groupwork model. Particular attention is paid to the preplanning and initial session of the group, to the use of letters and to the incorporation of a reflective team approach. Documentation of the discoveries made by the group members during its life is included in full.     

Normes,théorie des jeux et pratiques participatives: le poids réel des travailleurs dans les économies libérales

Les auteurs analysent l'effet de la directive européenne relative à l'information et à la consultation des travailleurs sur les pratiques participatives en entreprise au Royaume‐Uni et en Irlande. Dans une analyse conceptuelle et empirique, qui fait appel à la théorie des jeux, ils formulent trois hypothèses explicatives, qu'ils cherchent à vérifier avec des données qualitatives recueillies auprès de seize entreprises. La démonstration permet de comprendre pourquoi la coopération, gage de gains mutuels, n'est pas la solution qui l'emporte dans les pays examinés, et elle nous en dit un peu plus sur l'effet des normes sur la gestion participative dans les économies de marché libérales.