Socio-economic differences in fertility control. Is there an early warning system at the village level?

This article is about identifying the origins of fertility limitation in a way designed to overcome the constraints which require that fertility control be discovered only after it is undeniable. The analysis is based on data from the Belgian commune of La Hulpe, covering the period from 1846–1880. It shows (using hazard models) that the clearest signs of fertility control were visible among literate women and the bourgeoisie.Cet article cherche à identifier les origines de la limitation des naissances d'une façon permettant de surmonter les contraintes selon lesquelles cette régulation ne peut être détectée qu'après que ses effets aient été indéniables. L'analyse est basée sur les données d'une commune belge, La Hulpe, qui couvrent la période 1846–1880. Elle montre en utilisant des modèles à risques proportionnels que ces signes prémonitoires de régulation des naissances existent et que les signes les plus clairs aparaissent chez les femmes sachant lire et écrire et dans la bourgeoisie.

---

Earlier drafts of this article were presented at the 1983 annual meeting of the Social Science History Association, and the Working Group Meeting on Historical Population Registers, held in Umeå, Sweden, August 13–17, 1984.     

Decision‐making in early clinical drug development

This paper illustrates an approach to setting the decision framework for a study in early clinical drug development. It shows how the criteria for a go and a stop decision are calculated based on pre‐specified target and lower reference values. The framework can lead to a three‐outcome approach by including a consider zone; this could enable smaller studies to be performed in early development, with other information either external to or within the study used to reach a go or stop decision. In this way, Phase I/II trials can be geared towards providing actionable decision‐making rather than the traditional focus on statistical significance. The example provided illustrates how the decision criteria were calculated for a Phase II study, including an interim analysis, and how the operating characteristics were assessed to ensure the decision criteria were robust. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial weighting improves accuracy in small-area demographic forecasts of urban census tract populations

Existing research in small-area demographic forecasting suffers from two important limitations: (1) a paucity of studies that quantify patterns of error in either total or age/sex-specific estimates and (2) limited methodological innovation aimed specifically at improving the accuracy of such forecasts. This paper attempts to fill, in part, these gaps in existing research by presenting a comparative evaluation of the accuracy of standard and spatially-weighted Hamilton–Perry forecasts for urbanized census tracts within incorporated New Mexico municipalities. These comparative forecasts are constructed for a 10-year horizon (base 1 April 2000 and target 1 April 2010), then compared to the results of the 2010 Census in an ex post facto evaluation. Results are presented for the standard Hamilton–Perry forecasts as well as two sets that incorporate two common variants of spatial weights to improve forecast accuracy. Findings are discussed in the context of what is currently known about error in small-area demographic forecasts and with an eye toward continued innovations.     

Roads to Poverty Reduction? Exploring Rural Roads' Impact on Mobility in Africa and Asia

Within current poverty reduction programmes, focus on the social‐welfare millennium development goals is widening to embrace a concern with infrastructural investment, particularly for remote areas. The previously popular assumption that rural disadvantage can be remedied by road‐building is resurfacing. Using survey data from Ethiopia, Zambia and Vietnam, this article explores how effective such investment is in addressing mobility and social‐service accessibility in rural areas. The findings indicate that, in extremely remote areas, road improvements may catalyse the expansion of social‐service provision, as evidenced in Ethiopia. However, given the poor's relative lack of motor vehicles and ability to pay for public transport, they are, by no means, a sufficient condition for enhancing the mobility of the rural poor.     

The Influence of Child Protection Orientation on Child Welfare Practice

Summary This article reports the findings of the second part of a two-partresearch project examining the potential for social workersto make changes in their work with families and children. Whilstsocial workers in the United Kingdom have been encouraged toshift from a child protection to a child welfare orientationin their practice, such changes have been hampered by professionaland organizational concern to manage risk. The research exploresthe influence of a child protection orientation on practicein child welfare cases. The findings, from two file analysesand interviews with 26 social workers, indicate that such aninfluence is indeed apparent. This is evidenced in two ways;first patterns of practice in child welfare cases are similarto those in child protection cases. Secondly, while the majorityof social workers express an attitudinal desire to move towardsa child welfare orientation, they still prioritize the managementof risk in their practice. It is argued that social workersneed permission from their employing organizations to make changesin their practice. This, in turn, requires such organizationsto state clear goals in line with a child welfare orientationand develop holistic strategies to achieve these.     

Alternative forms of the wald test: how long is a piece of string?

It is possible to obtain any positive value for the Wald test statistic, by rewriting the null hypothesis being tested In an algebraically equivalent form.     

On constant stress accelerated life tests terminated by Type II censoring at one of the stress levels

This paper considers constant stress accelerated life tests terminated by a Type II censoring regime at one of the stress levels. We consider a model based on Weibull distributions with constant shape and a log-linear link between scale and the stress factor. We obtain expectations associated with the likelihood function, and use these to obtain asymptotically valid variances and correlations for maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. We illustrate their calculation, and assess agreement with observed counterparts for finite samples in simulation experiments. We then use moments to compare the information obtained from variants of the design, and show that, with an appropriate allocation of items to stress levels, the design yields better estimates of model parameters and related quantities than a single stress experiment.     

Investigating the impact of Hurricane Maria on an ongoing birth cohort in Puerto Rico

Population and Environment - Prior to Hurricane Maria, Puerto Rico already had 200+ hazardous waste sites, significant contamination of water resources, and among the highest rates of preterm birth...     

Helping Students Starting a Social Work Qualifying Programme to Learn More Effectively

This paper gives an account of how Meyer's Reflections on Learning Inventory (RoLI) was used with groups of UK social work students embarking on their professional training in higher education, to assist them to reflect on their approaches to learning and the implications for their chosen career. Social work students were offered the opportunity to complete an inventory during the induction week of their qualifying award programme. They were provided with an analysis, which they then discussed with their tutor. As a result of this, students were required to produce a brief plan outlining what they had learned and how they could address any issues arising. The original profiles of the students were compared with their end of first year assessments. The RoLIs were found to be a sound indicator of those students ‘at risk’ of failing and proved a useful trigger for reflection on learning for most students.