Artificial intelligence and formal models of international behavior

During the past five years, models and techniques developed in artificial intelligence (AI) have been applied to a wide variety of topics in international relations (IR). These applications build on a theoretical base established at MIT during the 1970s, and the expansion of the applications reflects both changes in AI research and limitations of alternative models such as statistical modeling and rational choice approaches. Current applications in IR/AI tend to fall into three categories. First, there have been extensive applications of if-then rules in expert systems and simulations. Second, many models emphasize the role of historical precedent in IR decision making. Third, a variety of approaches employing natural language are under development. These AI techniques have extended considerably the range and complexity of formal models of international behavior. He has spent the past four years working on applications of artificial intelligence to the problem of making short-term predictions of international behavior. He is author ofMicrocomputer Methods for Social Scientists (Sage 1987) and numerous articles on mathematical modeling.     

On trends and constants in periodic autoregressions

Periodic autoregressions are characterised by autoregressive structures that vary with the season. If a time series is periodically integrated, one needs a seasonally varying differencing filter to remove the stochastic trend. When the periodic regression model contains constants and trends with unrestricted parameters, the data can show diverging seasonal deterministic trends. In this paper we derive explicit expressions for parameter restrictions that result in common deterministic trends under periodic trend stationarity and periodic integration.     

Ways out of the sewage sludge dilemma: Connecting administrative and participatory decision making

This paper examines the problem of decisions about the disposal of sewage sludge, in the face of stakeholder groups with varying viewpoints, based on a current case from the state of Lower Saxony in Germany. Like other developed countries, Germany faces the dilemma that sludge arisings are increasing (e.g., because of better water treatment) while disposal options are becoming more scarce. Lower Saxony relies heavily on landfill and agricultural application, but landfill of untreated sludge will be banned after 2005. The state Environment Ministry sees agricultural application as having various advantages, but it faces scepticism from various stakeholders. The ministry has therefore taken steps to encourage a long-term dialogue process with the main stakeholders, including farming organizations, food processors, other landowners such as the churches, and environmental and consumer organizations. The process began with a discussion forum in 1995 that led to the proposal of specific discussions with stakeholders. This paper focuses in particular on the dialogue with environmental and consumer groups. It analyzes the initial positions of the various stakeholders, describes the concrete steps taken so far, describes the ongoing efforts, and critically evaluates the procedures used as well as their implications in terms of the ideas of deliberation and analysis.     

Confirming and Expanding the Usefulness of the Extended Satisfaction With Life Scale (ESWLS)

The role of stress, particularly economic hindrance,in the prediction of global life-satisfaction wascontrasted between typically younger (n = 109)and more mature (n = 66) undergraduate students. Participants completed a Personal Projects AnalysisAppraisal Matrix including six stress dimensions, aswell as a single-item measure of globallife-satisfaction. Discriminant function analysesconducted on the students' Personal Project appraisalsrevealed that project challenge and economic hindranceaccounted for 25% of the variability inlife-satisfaction for the mature students, but none ofthe stress dimensions predicted life satisfaction forthe younger students. These results indicate that therole of stress in the prediction of life-satisfactionvaries as a function of age, with project challengeand economic hindrance playing a significant role inolder students' lives. The results are discussed inrelation to the developmental context of personalprojects as life tasks and the varying contexts foracademic pursuit between mature and typically youngerundergraduate students.     

Effects of a school readiness intervention for children in foster care on oppositional and aggressive behaviors in kindergarten

One hundred ninety-two children in foster care participated in a randomized efficacy trial of a school readiness intervention, the Kids In Transition to School (KITS) Program, designed to increase literacy, social, and self-regulation skills in children before kindergarten entry. One hundred two children were randomly assigned to the KITS intervention and 90 were randomly assigned to the foster care services as usual comparison group. At the end of the kindergarten year, teachers were asked to report on the children's oppositional and aggressive behaviors in the classroom. Controlling for gender, baseline levels of parent-reported oppositional and aggressive behaviors, and level of disruptiveness in the classroom, children who had received the intervention had significantly lower levels of oppositional and aggressive behaviors in the classroom. Findings suggest that an intervention designed to increase school readiness in children in foster care can have positive effects on kindergarten classroom behavior.     

The Placement History Chart: A Tool for Understanding the Longitudinal Pattern of Foster Children's Placements

Despite growing concerns about foster placement instability, little information is available regarding the longitudinal patterns of placement histories among foster children. The purpose of the present study was to develop a charting system using child welfare records to facilitate a better understanding of longitudinal patterns of placement history for 117 foster children. The resulting Placement History Chart included all placements that occurred during the observed time period and accounted for various dimensions: number, length, type, and sequence of placements; timing of transitions; and total time in out-of-home care. The Placement History Chart is an effective tool for placing foster care experiences within a broader developmental context. As such, the Placement History Chart can be a valuable research tool for understanding various dimensions and variations of placement transitions among foster children by capturing sequences and cumulative risks over time. Furthermore, this chart can facilitate the development of intervention programs that are developmentally sensitive and effectively address particularly vulnerable subpopulations of foster children.