INDIVIDUAL RISK ATTITUDES: MEASUREMENT,DETERMINANTS, AND BEHAVIORAL CONSEQUENCES

This paper studies risk attitudes using a large representative survey and a complementary experiment conducted with a representative subject pool in subjects' homes. Using a question asking people about their willingness to take risks “in general”, we find that gender, age, height, and parental background have an economically significant impact on willingness to take risks. The experiment confirms the behavioral validity of this measure, using paid lottery choices. Turning to other questions about risk attitudes in specific contexts, we find similar results on the determinants of risk attitudes, and also shed light on the deeper question of stability of risk attitudes across contexts. We conduct a horse race of the ability of different measures to explain risky behaviors such as holdings stocks, occupational choice, and smoking. The question about risk taking in general generates the best all‐round predictor of risky behavior.     

Family concepts—a social pedagogic approach to understanding family development and working with families

Drawing upon insights from family research, this article argues that in modern Western societies the reflection of individual notions of family as well as the development of concepts of a fulfilling everyday family life has turned into a recurrent challenge throughout the life course, a challenge particularly relevant during family transitions. Professionals in the field of social work with families are increasingly faced with the task of supporting such processes of reflection and development. At the same time, there is little knowledge about how these processes look like. Building upon results of a pilot study and merging recent theoretical developments in family research with the (German) tradition of social pedagogy, a conceptual framework to study family concepts theoretically and empirically is developed. The potential as well as the limitations of this research approach are discussed drawing upon a case example taken from an ongoing longitudinal study. This study aims at revealing family concept-related processes of informal learning and thus provides an understanding of family development from a social pedagogic point of view. Finally, an outline will be given of how this research could contribute to develop an intervention method standing in the tradition of social pedagogy.     

Checking a Semiparametric Additive Risk Model

McKeague and Sasieni [A partly parametric additive risk model. Biometrika 81 (1994) 501] propose a restriction of Aalen’s additive risk model by the additional hypothesis that some of the covariates have time-independent influence on the intensity of the observed counting process. We introduce goodness-of-fit tests for this semiparametric Aalen model. The asymptotic distribution properties of the test statistics are derived by means of martingale techniques. The tests can be adjusted to detect particular alternatives. As one of the most important alternatives we consider Cox’s proportional hazards model. We present simulation studies and an application to a real data set.     

Adult sibling relationship questionnaire

This paper presents testing results, as well as the German translation of the “Adult Sibling Relationship Questionnaire” (“ASRQ”), a self-report measure that can be used to raise information on adult sibling relationships. The “ASRQ” consists of 81 items spread over 14 scales. The questionnaire assesses qualitative features of sibling relationships in young adulthood and beyond. The items on the 14 scales are combined to form 3 higher-order factors: “Warmth”, “Conflict” and “Rivalry”. Results of a sample of adults (N=388) confirms that the German version of the “ASRQ” can be very well used as an objective and reliable self-report measure. The analysis of psychometric data confirms early research results on the one hand and point to the necessity of additional research on sibling relations in adulthood on the other hand.     

Optimal Detection of a Change Point in a Poisson Process for Different Observation Schemes

Abstract.  Change point problems are considered where at some unobservable time the intensity of a point process ( T_n ), n ∈  N , has a jump. For a given reward functional we detect the change point optimally for different information schemes. These schemes differ in the available information. We consider three information levels, namely sequential observation of ( T_n ), ex post decision after observing the point process up to a fixed time t * and a combination of both observation schemes. In all of these cases the detection problem is viewed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved by deriving a semimartingale representation of the gain process and applying tools from filtering theory.