Action rate models for predicting actions in soccer

AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis - We present a data-driven approach to predict the next action in soccer. We focus on passing actions of the ball possessing player and aim to forecast the...     

Consequences of the Disarmament Process for the Labour Market in Germany

In Germany the international peace process has important consequences for the economy, especially for the labour market. The German armed forces will be reduced from 520,000 to 370,000. Nearly three quarters of the approximately 830,000 foreign soldiers stationed in Germany are in the process of leaving the country. Parallel to this there will be a reduction of about 100,000 jobs for civil employees. There are strong indicators showing that the market of civil employees is an “internal market” (of the type often described by labour market segmentation theory) and there are high barriers against the mobility of workers. Measures of active labour market policy (especially of the German Federal Office of Labour) supports the transition of civil workers into new jobs. These provisions are assisted by measures of regional policy in regions with relatively high unemployment rates, where the dissolution and reduction of garrisons affect the prosperity of entire regions. In conglomerates with high growth rates, however, positive consequences of the disarmament process can be expected.     

Model checks for Cox-type regression models based on optimally weighted martingale residuals

We introduce directed goodness-of-fit tests for Cox-type regression models in survival analysis. “Directed” means that one may choose against which alternatives the tests are particularly powerful. The tests are based on sums of weighted martingale residuals and their asymptotic distributions. We derive optimal tests against certain competing models which include Cox-type regression models with different covariates and/or a different link function. We report results from several simulation studies and apply our test to a real dataset.     

Prevalence of Problem Gambling Among the Prison Population in Hamburg,Germany

Despite the increasing research in gambling, the prevalence of problem gambling in the criminal justice population is rarely investigated, especially in Europe. Given the lack in knowledge the Hamburg study aimed at identifying the prevalence of problem gambling in the whole regional prison population. For this purpose two major approaches were used: a 10 months long-term screening of pre-trial detainees at prison entry through the Lie/Bet Questionnaire, and full-scale survey of inmate personnel records of prisoners being in prison on a defined reporting date. Based on 792 valid screening files 6.6 % of the pre-trial detainees were positive on the Lie/Bet Questionnaire, and these problem gamblers were male only. Among the 1,236 inmate personnel records reviewed in 7.3 % the records indicated problem gambling (90 prisoners). This indication was found in 7.5 % males and 3.6 % females. For almost half of the prisoners with problem gambling their prison sentence was related to their gambling behavior (46.7 %). These results are representative for the regional prison population, and the first of its kind in Europe.     

Cooperating,reflecting, making open and meta-dialogue — Outline of a systemic approach on constructivist grounds

In this paper the authors first describe the theoretical background of their constructivist approach to therapy: the Kiel-Meyn-Consultation-Model. They then outline their guidelines “cooperating, reflecting, making open” for interviewing, briefly describe the “meta-dialogue” and point out some basic helpful attitudes consultants can hold. Annotated excerpts from a consultation are then presented to give an idea of how the model works. The paper closes with summaries of follow-up sessions and their evaluation by the therapist.     

Test for model selection using Cramér–von Mises distance in a fixed design regression setting

In this paper a test for model selection is proposed which extends the usual goodness-of-fit test in several ways. It is assumed that the underlying distribution H depends on a covariate value in a fixed design setting. Secondly, instead of one parametric class we consider two competing classes one of which may contain the underlying distribution. The test allows to select one of two equally treated model classes which fits the underlying distribution better. To define the distance of distributions various measures are available. Here the Cramér-von Mises has been chosen. The null hypothesis that both parametric classes have the same distance to the underlying distribution H can be checked by means of a test statistic, the asymptotic properties of which are shown under a set of suitable conditions. The performance of the test is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the procedure is applied to a data set from an endurance test on electric motors.