Two Canonical VARMA Forms: Scalar Component Models Vis-à-Vis the Echelon Form

In this article we study two methodologies which identify and specify canonical form VARMA models. The two methodologies are: (1) an extension of the scalar component methodology which specifies canonical VARMA models by identifying scalar components through canonical correlations analysis; and (2) the Echelon form methodology, which specifies canonical VARMA models through the estimation of Kronecker indices. We compare the actual forms and the methodologies on three levels. Firstly, we present a theoretical comparison. Secondly, we present a Monte Carlo simulation study that compares the performances of the two methodologies in identifying some pre-specified data generating processes. Lastly, we compare the out-of-sample forecast performance of the two forms when models are fitted to real macroeconomic data.     

A new four-parameter discrete distribution with bathtub and unimodal failure rate

In this paper, a discrete counterpart of the general class of continuous beta-G distributions is introduced. A discrete analog of the beta generalized exponential distribution of Barreto-Souza et al. [2], as an important special case of the proposed class, is studied. This new distribution contains some previously known discrete distributions as well as two new models. The hazard rate function of the new model can be increasing, decreasing, bathtub-shaped and upside-down bathtub. Some distributional and moment properties of the new distribution as well as its order statistics are discussed. Estimation of the parameters is illustrated using the maximum likelihood method and, finally, the model with a real data set is examined.     

Multivariate tail conditional expectation for scale mixtures of skew-normal distribution

In practice, a financial or actuarial data set may be a skewed or heavy-tailed and this motivates us to study a class of distribution functions in risk management theory that provide more information about these characteristics resulting in a more accurate risk analysis. In this paper, we consider a multivariate tail conditional expectation (MTCE) for multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) distributions. This class of distributions contains skewed distributions and some members of this class can be used to analyse heavy-tailed data sets. We also provide a closed form for TCE in a univariate skew-normal distribution framework. Numerical examples are also provided for illustration.     

An extension of parametric ROC analysis for calculating diagnostic accuracy when underlying distributions are mixture of Gaussian

The semiparametric LABROC approach of fitting binormal model for estimating AUC as a global index of accuracy has been justified (except for bimodal forms), while for estimating a local index of accuracy such as TPF, it may lead to a bias in severe departure of data from binormality. We extended parametric ROC analysis for quantitative data when one or both pair members are mixture of Gaussian (MG) in particular for bimodal forms. We analytically showed that AUC and TPF are a mixture of weighting parameters of different components of AUCs and TPFs of a mixture of underlying distributions. In a simulation study of six configurations of MG distributions:{bimodal, normal} and {bimodal, bimodal} pairs, the parameters of MG distributions were estimated using the EM algorithm. The results showed that the estimated AUC from our proposed model was essentially unbiased, and that the bias in the estimated TPF at a clinically relevant range of FPF was roughly 0.01 for a sample size of n=100/100. In practice, with severe departures from binormality, we recommend an extension of the LABROC and software development for future research to allow for each member of the pair of distributions to be a mixture of Gaussian that is a more flexible parametric form.     

Bayesian Analysis of Skew Gaussian Spatial Models Based on Censored Data

The customary approach to spatial data modeling in the presence of censored data, is to assume the underlying random field is Gaussian. However, in practice, we often faced data that the exploratory data analysis shows the skewness and consequently, it violates the normality assumption. In such setting, the skew Gaussian (SG) spatial model is used to overcome this issue. In this article, the SG model is fitted based on censored observations. For this purpose, we adopt the Bayesian approach and utilize the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and data augmentations to carry out calculations. A numerical example illustrates the methodology.     

Examining the Notion of Listening Subskill Divisibility and its Implications for Second Language Listening

The testing and teaching of listening has been partially guided by the notion of subskills, or a set of listening abilities that are needed for achieving successful comprehension and utilization of the information from listening texts. Although this notion came about mainly through applications of theoretical perspectives from psychology and communication studies, the actual divisibility of the subskills has rarely been examined. This article reports an attempt to do so by using data from the answers of 916 test takers of a retired version of the Michigan English Language Assessment Battery listening test. First, an iterative content analysis of items was carried out, identifying five key subskills. Next, the discriminability of subskills was examined through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Five independent measurement models representing the subskills were evaluated. The overall CFA model comprising the measurement models showed excessively high correlations among factors. Further tests through CFA resolved the inadmissible correlations, though the high correlations persisted. Finally, we made 23 aggregate-level items which were used in a higher-order model, which induced best fit indices and resolved the inadmissible estimates. The results show that the subskills in the test were empirically divisible, lending support to scholarly attempts in discussing components in the listening construct for the purpose of teaching and assessment.     

Cyber risk assessment in small and medium-sized enterprises: A multilevel decision-making approach for small e-tailors

The role played by information and communication technologies in today's businesses cannot be underestimated. While such technological advancements provide numerous advantages and opportunities, they are known to thread organizations with new challenges such as cyberattacks. This is particularly important for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are deemed to be the least mature and highly vulnerable to cybersecurity risks. Thus, this research is set to assess the cyber risks in online retailing SMEs (e-tailing SMEs). Therefore, this article employs a sample of 124 small e-tailers in the United Kingdom and takes advantage of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. Indeed, we identified a total number of 28 identified cyber-oriented risks in five exhaustive themes of “security,” “dependency,” “employee,” “strategic,” and “legal” risks. Subsequently, an integrated approach using step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) and best–worst method (BWM) has been employed to develop a pathway of risk assessment. As such, the current study outlines a novel approach toward cybersecurity risk management for e-tailing SMEs and discusses its effectiveness and contributions to the cyber risk management literature.     

An efficient spread-based evolutionary algorithm for solving dynamic multi-objective optimization problems

Dynamic multi-objective optimization algorithms are used as powerful methods for solving many problems worldwide. Diversity, convergence, and adaptation to environment changes are three of the most important factors that dynamic multi-objective optimization algorithms try to improve. These factors are functions of exploration, exploitation, selection and adaptation operators. Thus, effective operators should be employed to achieve a robust dynamic optimization algorithm. The algorithm presented in this study is known as spread-based dynamic multi-objective algorithm (SBDMOA) that uses bi-directional mutation and convex crossover operators to exploit and explore the search space. The selection operator of the proposed algorithm is inspired by the spread metric to maximize diversity. When the environment changed, the proposed algorithm removes the dominated solutions and mutated all the non-dominated solutions for adaptation to the new environment. Then the selection operator is used to select desirable solutions from the population of non-dominated and mutated solutions. Generational distance, spread, and hypervolume metrics are employed to evaluate the convergence and diversity of solutions. The overall performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated and investigated on FDA, DMOP, JY, and the heating optimization problem, by comparing it with the DNSGAII, MOEA/D-SV, DBOEA, KPEA, D-MOPSO, KT-DMOEA, Tr-DMOEA and PBDMO algorithms. Empirical results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm in comparison to other state-of-the-art algorithms.