Efficacy and toxicity monitoring via Bayesian predictive probabilities in phase II clinical trials

Bayesian monitoring strategies based on predictive probabilities are widely used in phase II clinical trials that involve a single efficacy binary variable. The essential idea is to control the predictive probability that the trial will show a conclusive result at the scheduled end of the study, given the information at the interim stage and the prior beliefs. In this paper, we present an extension of this approach to incorporate toxicity considerations in single-arm phase II trials. We consider two binary endpoints representing response and toxicity of the experimental treatment and define the result as successful at the conclusion of the study if the posterior probability of an high efficacy and that of a small toxicity are both sufficiently large. At any interim look, the Multinomial-Dirichlet distribution provides the predictive probability of each possible combination of future efficacy and toxicity outcomes. It is exploited to obtain the predictive probability that the trial will yield a positive outcome, if it continues to the planned end. Different possible interim situations are considered to investigate the behaviour of the proposed predictive rules and the differences with the monitoring strategies based on posterior probabilities are highlighted. Simulation studies are also performed to evaluate the frequentist operating characteristics of the proposed design and to calibrate the design parameters.

     

Gender disparities in the Italian regions from a human development perspective

The aim of this paper is to analyse, which is the current situation of gender disparities in Italy and how such disparities are distributed among Italian regions. In order to quantify such disparities a comprehensive framework for assessment is required by using a human development approach. A gender-oriented investigation of effective available capabilities for men and women in the Italian regions reveals that gender inequality in Italy seems to be a persistent phenomenon. Finally, the gender disparities in the empowerment dimension and in the other social dimensions seem to be mutually reinforcing with the economic dimensions, especially in the labour market.     

Determining factors leading affiliates to transfer from an individual accounts pension scheme to a pay-as-you-go pension scheme: Evidence from Argentina

Prior to the recent implementation of the Argentine Integrated Social Security System (SIPA — Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino ), the 2007 reform represented the first major change in Argentina's old-age social security system since 1994. For the first time, workers contributing to the private defined-contribution individual accounts scheme were able to choose freely to move over to the public pay-as-you-go (PAYG) scheme. This study is an attempt to analyse the special characteristics of those who opted for transfer to the public PAYG scheme and to discover whether the behaviour of these individuals is in line with that of a "simulated worker" attempting to optimize income. The analysis includes an estimate of the probability that individuals with certain characteristics will transfer.     

The Effect on Fertility of the 2003–2011 War in Iraq

This article provides the first detailed account of recent fertility trends in Iraq, with a particular focus on the changes resulting from the 2003–2011 war and the factors underlying them. The study is based on retrospective birth history data from the 2006 and 2011 Iraq Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (I‐MICS). Estimates from the two surveys indicate that total fertility remained stable from 1997 to 2010, at about 4.5 children per woman. However, examination of the age patterns of fertility reveals an abrupt shift in the timing of births, with adolescent fertility rising by over 30 percent soon after the onset of the war. A decomposition analysis shows that the rise in early childbearing is due to an increased prevalence of early marriage among less‐educated women. The prevalence of early marriage and childbearing among women with secondary or higher education is relatively low and has not increased after 2003.     

Interculturalism in Times of Crisis

This article locates the discussion of this Special Section within the wider analysis of Interculturalism and intercultural dialogue as a new way of framing dynamic inter‐ethnic and broader community relations, and considering how perceived and real crisis affects both states’ and societys’ understandings of ethnicity, culture and diversity. Taking cases from Catalonia, Spain, the European Union, this Special Section's multi‐level approach illustrates how intercultural dialogue can be developed at the sub‐State, State, Region and international levels. By surveying the articles in the Special Section, this introduction critiques the Interculturalism framework and develops it. Crucially, drawing out insights from across these different types of groupings and from theorists offering a range of perspectives, this collection is able to offer new insights on Interculturalism, its relations with Multiculturalism, and forms of intercultural dialogue.