Using Discrete-Time Event History Fertility Models to Simulate Total Fertility Rates and Other Fertility Measures

Event history models, also known as hazard models, are commonly used in analyses of fertility. One drawback of event history models is that the conditional probabilities (hazards) estimated by event history models do not readily translate into summary measures, particularly for models of repeatable events, like childbirth. In this paper, we describe how to translate the results of discrete-time event history models of all births into well-known summary fertility measures: simulated age- and parity-specific fertility rates, parity progression ratios, and the total fertility rate. The method incorporates all birth intervals, but permits the hazard functions to vary across parities. It can also simulate values for groups defined by both fixed and time-varying covariates, such as marital or employment life histories. We demonstrate the method using an example from the National Survey of Family Growth and provide an accompanying data file and Stata program.     

Exact distributions of two non-central generalized Wilks's statistics

We derive the exact expressions of the probability density function (pdf) and the cumulative distribution function (cdf) of Wilks's likelihood ratio criterion Λ and Wilks-Lawley's statistic U in the non-central linear and the non-central planar cases. Those expressions are given in rapidly converging infinite series and can be used for numerical computation. For applications, we compute the exact power of these statistics in a multivariate analysis of variance exercise, and show by simulation the precision of our analytic formulae.     

Left truncation in linked data: A practical guide to understanding left truncation and applying it using SAS and R

Time-to-event data such as time to death are broadly used in medical research and drug development to understand the efficacy of a therapeutic. For time-to-event data, right censoring (data only observed up to a certain point of time) is common and easy to recognize. Methods that use right censored data, such as the Kaplan–Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazard model, are well established. Time-to-event data can also be left truncated, which arises when patients are excluded from the sample because their events occur before a specific milestone, potentially resulting in an immortal time bias. For example, in a study evaluating the association between biomarker status and overall survival, patients who did not live long enough to receive a genomic test were not observed in the study. Left truncation causes selection bias and often leads to an overestimate of survival time. In this tutorial, we used a nationwide electronic health record-derived de-identified database to demonstrate how to analyze left truncated and right censored data without bias using example code from SAS and R.     

Impact of internal migration on the economic well-being of local workers and school dropouts among children in Vietnam

This study examines the impact of migration on local workers and high school dropouts of local students. A conventional approach without addressing the endogeneity issue may lead to biased results. Our endogeneity-corrected estimates show a positive impact of migration on the monthly wages of local workers. A higher share of migrants increases the probability of local workers with employment contracts, social insurance, and holiday pay. Heterogeneity analysis shows that local workers, no matter their educational level, work experience, or occupation sectors, benefit from the inflow of migrants. Finally, migration inflow lowers the probability of high school dropouts among local students. Our findings resulting from rigorous statistical approaches suggest that internal migration produces positive impacts on the economic well-being of local residents, refuting the argument about the adverse effects associated with internal migration.     

Identifying factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19: A systematic review focussing on at-risk school children and adolescents

School closures across Australia in response to COVID-19 have persisted since 2020, with rising mental health problems in children and adolescents, alongside rising negative family health and socioeconomic outcomes. Further, some children and young people who were already experiencing disadvantage pre-pandemic may be at heightened risk of poorer educational outcomes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of the literature to identify the factors for poorer educational outcomes that may be exacerbated by COVID-19 amongst disadvantaged school students. Key development stages of disadvantage were identified: young children who started school behind, older students already at risk of disengagement from school and children and young people who have had contact with the child protection system. Five databases were systematically searched, across two search periods. A total of 69 Australian, peer-reviewed articles, published in 2005–2021, examining risk factors for poor educational outcomes for children attending school met the inclusion criteria and were included in final analyses. Our findings provide evidence of key risk factors that make these populations susceptible to worsening outcomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, and of the critical importance of ongoing research to guide policy and practice support for these at-risk groups.     

Heterogeneity in Parent‐reported Social Skill Development in Early Elementary School Children

Despite known risks associated with aberrant social skill development, there has been a relative dearth of literature on typical developmental changes in social skills over time. In this study, we examine systematic changes in social skills from kindergarten (typical age of 5–6 years) to third grade (typical age of 8–9 years), and focus on systematic heterogeneity across these developmental trajectories. Data came from the National Head Start—Public School Early Childhood Transition Demonstration Project (N = 6964). Mixture models provide evidence for multiple classes of individuals representing heterogeneity in the development of social skills. Classes were defined as a majority class (whose trajectories remained relatively stable over time), an increasing class (whose trajectories increased at a faster rate than the majority class), and a decreasing class (whose trajectories decreased at a faster rate than the majority class). Developmental trends accounted for a substantial proportion of the variance in social skill components. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

The Dutch IOR Approach to Organizational Design: An Alternative to Business Process Re-engineering?

This paper presents the current Dutchsociotechnical design approach to integralorganizational renewal in a contextual way. Both itsdesign theory and intervention processes are reviewedand some aggregated empirical evidence is presented. Next, thepaper compares the ideas developed in the Dutch approachto those presented in its American, Scandinavian, andAustralian counterparts. It is concluded that, at a meta-level, they all share the ideal ofparticipative democracy, while at the conceptual level,these distinctive approaches appear quite incompatible.Notwithstanding substantial diversity, it is presumed these approaches can be seen as localmanifestations of a single sociotechnicalparadigm.     

Feeling well while chronically ill or impaired: a multilevel study on the moderating role of employment and volunteering in Europe

People with a chronic condition tend to report poorer subjective well-being than people without. This article examines the dependence of the relationship on doing paid and voluntary work, and on macro-level labour market exclusion of people with and without chronic conditions. Data from the European Quality of Life Survey (2011–2012) of people aged between 25 and 65 are analysed using multilevel regression techniques. A chronic condition has a stronger negative effect on subjective well-being for persons who are economically inactive or who never engage in voluntary work. The importance of paid work, however, varies with national levels of labour exclusion.