Transitional appreciation of equilibrium exchange rates and the ERM II

A suitable parity for exchange rate fixing can be derived from an analysis of the equilibrium exchange rate. As the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU 5 countries, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, and the Slovak Republic, tend to exhibit appreciation trends, credibility of the potential commitment to fixed exchange rate parity with respect to the euro can be undermined. In order to investigate this issue, we estimate a behavioral model of real exchange rates for EU 5 countries and derive the respective equilibrium real exchange rates. Using the linear-quadratic filter we estimate permanent equilibrium exchange rates and their stationary points. We find that as of 2004 fixing of the national currencies to the euro should not be undermined by further significant trend appreciation in the equilibrium exchange rates of the EU 5 countries, in aggregate.     

Zum Einfluss regionaler Arbeitslosigkeit auf Einstellungen zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit

Im Vordergrund des Beitrags steht die Erweiterung der bisherigen Erkl?rungsans?tze zu Einstellungen zur sozialen Gerechtigkeit, welche sich vornehmlich auf rationale Motive im Hinblick auf die soziale Position und normative Wertvorstellungen aus dem kulturellen Kontext beziehen. Diese traditionellen Ans?tze werden um Einflüsse der regionalen Arbeitslosigkeit erg?nzt. Eine zentrale Rolle nimmt dabei zun?chst die theoretische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Einfluss des regionalen Kontextes auf Einstellungen und Handlungen im Allgemeinen ein. Ausgehend von Boudons cognitivist model werden diese Mechanismen anschlie?end in ein umfassendes theoretisches Konzept zusammen mit den rationalen und normativen Einflussfaktoren integriert. In einem zweiten Schritt wird das erweiterte theoretische Modell mit Hilfe von Mehrebenenmodellen empirisch überprüft. Datenbasis sind zum einen die Umfragedaten des International Social Justice Project aus 2006 und zum anderen die Informationen zu Raumordnungsregionen der Arbeitsmarktstatistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. Die empirischen Analysen unterstützen weitgehend die Untersuchung von regionalen Einflussfaktoren neben individuellen Merkmalen.     

Power Mapping: Enhancing Sociological Knowledge by Developing Generalizable Analytical Public Tools

In this article, I argue for and illustrate ‘power mapping’ as a concrete research approach that can benefit specific publics while enhancing professional sociological knowledge and theory. I present power mapping as an example of a more broad approach to public sociology which seeks to harness sociological theory and knowledge in order to create generalizable analytical tools that social movements, policy makers, concerned citizens, voluntary associations, and community organizations can use to develop their own strategic assessments of the sociological contexts in which they act. One of the ironies of the current discussion of public sociology is that it has been conducted in an abstract, hyper-theoretical discourse which is precisely one of the factors that has disconnected so much sociology from general publics. In this article, I instead turn towards presenting a specific concrete research strategy which could engender mutually beneficial research collaboration and dialogue between sociologists and specific publics.     

Can preferences for catastrophe avoidance reconcile social discounting with intergenerational equity?

A social welfare function treating all generations equally is derived from a set of axioms that allow for preferences for catastrophe avoidance or risk equity. Implications for the case where there is a risk of world extinction are studied. We show that substantial time discounting can arise from the planner’s taste for catastrophe avoidance, even if the probability of the world ending is infinitesimally small. We wish to thank Marc Fleurbaey, Thibault Gajdos, two anonymous referees and an associate editor for many valuable comments.     

Choice and circumstance: Qualitative insights into contemporary childlessness in Australia

Using data from in-depth interviews with 115 women, men and couples in eastern Australia for whom family formation was a recent, current or imminent future issue, this article explores contemporary childlessness among those physically able to have children. It differentiates between those childless by choice and by circumstance, and among other themes highlights (i) the role preservation of lifestyle appears to play as a motive for deliberate childlessness following development of a life course through early adulthood that both generates lifestyle aspirations and often places parenthood on the backburner until after age 30, and (ii) the roles difficulty forming suitable relationships, women’s desire for meaningful careers, and male involvement in family formation decisions play in bringing about childlessness by circumstance.