Statistical Inference for Expectile‐based Risk Measures

Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell in 1987 in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law‐invariant risk measures. In this article, we show that the corresponding statistical functionals are continuous w.r.t. the 1‐weak topology and suitably functionally differentiable. By means of these regularity results, we can derive several properties such as consistency, asymptotic normality, bootstrap consistency and qualitative robustness of the corresponding estimators in nonparametric and parametric statistical models.     

Should the individual voting records of central bankers be published?

We examine whether the publication of the individual voting records of central-bank council members is socially beneficial when the public is unsure about the efficiency of central bankers and central bankers are angling for re-appointment. We show that publication is initially harmful since it creates a conflict between socially desirable and individually optimal behavior for somewhat less efficient central bankers. However, after re-appointment, losses will be lower when voting records are published since the government can distinguish highly efficient from less efficient central bankers more easily and can make central bankers individually accountable. In our model, the negative effects of voting transparency dominate, and expected overall losses are always larger when voting records are published.     

Kernel Estimation of the Spectral Density of Stationary Random Closed Sets

A non‐parametric kernel estimator of the spectral density of stationary random closed sets is studied. Conditions are derived under which this estimator is asymptotically unbiased and mean‐square consistent. For the planar Boolean model with isotropic compact and convex grains, an averaged version of the kernel estimator is compared with the theoretical spectral density.     

Conducting research with community agencies: meeting recruitment and collaboration challenges

Family therapy outcome research with community agencies has been challenging for various reasons. In two recent research projects, it was found that providing active feedback to agencies about their clinical services via a clinical report and a research-agency liaison were successful strategies to develop a collaborative atmosphere with agencies. Specifically, the two strategies improved agency and therapist recruitment, client and therapist motivation, and reduced therapist and client attrition.     

PLATFORM OWNERSHIP

We develop a theoretical framework of trade on a platform on which buyers and sellers interact, and compare the impact of different platform ownership structures. If two‐sided network effects are strong, monopoly ownership induces more trade than dispersed ownership and is therefore socially preferable. Independent of the strength of network effects, monopoly ownership dominates a club‐like ownership structure where incumbent owners can exclude potential entrants. Under dispersed ownership, vertical integration tends to increase welfare as it allows the internalization of demand externalities. Allowing incumbent platform owners to exclude potential entrants hurts buyers but can raise welfare. (JEL: L10, D40)     

When homeless people are allowed to decide by themselves. Rehousing homeless people in Germany

Several surveys on homeless people in Germany and evaluation results of studies in other European countries show that a majority of homeless people want to live in mainstream, self-contained housing. Research in the UK and in Germany also proves that most homeless single people with special difficulties and rough sleepers, who are often stigmatized as 'unable to live on their own', manage to sustain a normal tenancy, when additional social support is provided for those in need of it. This article presents the results of a long-term evaluation of two projects in Germany, which aimed at the reintegration of single homeless people into normal, permanent housing and were evaluated for a longer period of time. Both projects were part of a research scheme funded by the German Government.     

Causes of Civil War in Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Comparison*

Objectives. This article explores the extent to which economic development, ethnic and religious fractionalization, domestic governance, and international trade openness affect civil war in postcolonial Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1950 through 1992. Methods. We estimate a set of multivariate logit models with the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method for time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) data. Results. Both in Asia and in SSA, civil war is less likely with increased economic development and trade openness, while mixed autocratic‐democratic regimes raise the likelihood that states will experience civil war. Although neither ethnic nor religious fractionalization has any statistically significant effect on civil war in SSA, civil war in Asia is more likely with greater ethnic fractionalization. Conclusions. Despite cross‐regional variation in causes of civil war, economic development and trade openness seem to play a consistent role in reducing civil war.     

Latino Sexual Styles: Developing a Nuanced Understanding of Risk

The commencement of bisexual behavior and the ontogenesis of a bisexual orientation was studied in order to aid in the better understanding of how sexual behavior patterns begin and change. The investigation was conducted through in‐depth interviews held in California, Oregon, and Washington with the first 50 female volunteers gathered from a variety of sources who met the study requirements. Those requirements were that each subject, at the time of her first sexual contact with another female, (a) was married; (b) was at least 30 years of age; (c) was engaged in swinging; (d) was enjoying sex with males; and (e) had no history, prior to age 30, of a sexual attraction to females. “Multi‐female” and “multi‐male” sexual activity are terms introduced to remove the ambiguity and mislabeling which results from defining sexual activity between all persons of the same sex as necessarily homosexual. Subjects typically revealed a high incidence of early and continuing autosexual and heterosexual activity and current high frequencies of sexual activity with each sex. Influences facilitating a typical subject's initial and subsequent sexual activity with females were found to be her husband, other swingers, and the general swinging environment—the husband's influence usually being of paramount importance. It was concluded that those influences, perhaps together with a predisposition toward gaining perceived fulfillment of felt needs through sexual activity, will result in some heterosexual females engaging in multi‐female sexual activity and eventually adopting a self‐identified bisexual orientation.