Is Autism a Preventable Disorder of Verbal Behavior? A Response to Five Commentaries

The Analysis of Verbal Behavior - This paper presents a response to five commentaries on our article An Analysis of Autism as a Contingency-Shaped Disorder of Verbal Behavior (Drash &...     

Bayesian model selection for join point regression with application to age-adjusted cancer rates

Summary.  The method of Bayesian model selection for join point regression models is developed. Given a set of K +1 join point models M ₀,  M ₁, …,  M _K with 0, 1, …,  K join points respec-tively, the posterior distributions of the parameters and competing models M _k are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayes information criterion BIC is used to select the model M _k with the smallest value of BIC as the best model. Another approach based on the Bayes factor selects the model M _k with the largest posterior probability as the best model when the prior distribution of M _k is discrete uniform. Both methods are applied to analyse the observed US cancer incidence rates for some selected cancer sites. The graphs of the join point models fitted to the data are produced by using the methods proposed and compared with the method of Kim and co-workers that is based on a series of permutation tests. The analyses show that the Bayes factor is sensitive to the prior specification of the variance σ ², and that the model which is selected by BIC fits the data as well as the model that is selected by the permutation test and has the advantage of producing the posterior distribution for the join points. The Bayesian join point model and model selection method that are presented here will be integrated in the National Cancer Institute's join point software ( http://www.srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/ ) and will be available to the public.     

Using the Image Exchange to Enhance Interdisciplinary Team Building in Child Welfare

A team building activity, the image exchange, was helpful to interdisciplinary teams in clarifying perceptions and opinions of participants about the roles of each discipline (child welfare, domestic violence, mental health, and substance abuse workers) at a five-day interdisciplinary training workshop. Discussion of team members’ perceptions and views provided opportunities to develop insights about misperceptions. Training in team development and role clarification provided a foundation for the development of effective interdisciplinary collaboration, which may improve interdisciplinary practice.Dr. Packard is an Associate Professor and Dr. Jones is a Professor in the School of Social Work at SDSU. At the time of writing, Ms. Nahrstedt was a Research Assistant in the School of Social Work at SDSU. This project was funded by a grant from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children, Youth, and Families.     

Why does the new labor movement look so much like the old one? Putting the 1990s revitalization project in historical context

In the 1990s the labor movement underwent a major transformation in an attempt to confront the challenges facing organized labor, most notably a precipitous membership decline— in the private sector, membership is currently at a post-Great Depression low. Despite the enthusiastic response among unionists and scholars alike to this revitalization project, as Zald and Berger (1978) note, change within formal organizations is often a contentious process, as competing interests struggle for control. The current labor movement is no exception: Significant conflict surrounds the issue of new organizing activities. While this period is certainly interesting for the level of open debate occurring over the future of the movement, it is not unique as a time of heightened tensions among unionists. Herein I describe debates, both historical and present, over organizing goals and tactics. In order to draw parallels between the past and present, I offer a theoretical account of why organizing is such a controversial topic. Initial support for these explanations, drawn from quotes from unionists and observers of the movement alike, indicates that the current turmoil in the labor movement is similar to that which occurred in other important periods and that the consequences of the decisions made today regarding organizing can have significant ramifications for the movement’s future.     

Employment and the Risk of Domestic Abuse Among Low‐Income Women

This paper uses data from 2 randomized evaluations of welfare‐to‐work programs—the Minnesota Family Investment Program and the National Evaluation of Welfare‐to‐Work Strategies—to estimate the effect of employment on domestic abuse among low‐income single mothers. Unique to our analysis is the application of a 2‐stage least squares method, in which random assignment enables us to control for omitted characteristics that might otherwise confound the association between employment and domestic abuse. We find that increased maternal employment decreases subsequent reports of domestic abuse in both studies. In the Minnesota Family Investment Program—a program with an enhanced income disregard that allowed welfare mothers to keep a portion of their welfare income as earnings rose—an increase in household incomes appears to have contributed to reductions in reports of domestic abuse.     

Reports of Conferences, Institutes, and Seminars: Crossroads to the Future

Reports cover the 2006 Ohio Valley Group of Technical Services Librarians Conference and the 2006 North American Serials Interest Group Conference.     

No-Fault Divorce and the Compression of Marriage Ages

We examine how no-fault divorce law affects the age at first marriage, when everyone has a different value of marriage. The heterogeneity of individual values implies an unambiguous negative effect on the variance of marriage age. We test this hypothesis with marriage records from 1970 to 1995. Controlling for state-level heterogeneity and for time trends, the standard deviation of the log age at first marriage drops by approximately 5% with the introduction of no-fault divorce. We find that the mean age at first marriage increases slightly, suggesting that the mean person is slightly worse off with no-fault divorce. (JEL K0 , D1 )     

论现代逻辑的应用

现代逻辑的价值和意义,在于其在理论上的应用。对于纯数学的基础和结构来说,现代逻辑是一种非常有用的工具,包括哥德尔不完全性定理等,都利用了现代逻辑的技术和成果。某些现代逻辑技术已经广泛应用到了工程学之中,例如,计算机工程就基于现代逻辑的高级成果。反过来,这些应用又刺激了逻辑理论本身取得更多的进步。     

MORE INFORMATIVE TESTING FOR BIVARIATE SYMMETRY

In testing for bivariate symmetry against arbitrary alternatives the well‐known test developed by Bowker in 1948 is shown to be a score test, and to have useful components. These components are asymptotically independent and asymptotically have the standard normal distribution. Moreover they assess particular pairs of cells for symmetry. These components can also be used in a data analytic manner to complement a test for bivariate symmetry against ordered alternatives.