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On Bayesian learning from Bernoulli observations

We provide a reason for Bayesian updating, in the Bernoulli case, even when it is assumed that observations are independent and identically distributed with a fixed but unknown parameter _θ0${\theta }_0$. The motivation relies on the use of loss functions and asymptotics. Such a justification is important due to the recent interest and focus on Bayesian consistency which indeed assumes that the observations are independent and identically distributed rather than being conditionally independent with joint distribution depending on the choice of prior.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Class,work and family in women's lives

Interviews with white, working professional and working class mothers suggest that these women share values about work, family and on-the-job sociality. Respondents draw from a common value system, and many of the statements voiced by one group are echoed in the other. Work and motherhood are important paths to the development of individual identity for both working class and professional women. Differences in jobs, however, lead to differences in the actualization of values in their lives. Professional women are pulled in two directions and face continuing dilemmas in balancing careers which extract strong commitments from them and the demands of motherhood. Working class women's jobs do not require the same intensity of commitment, and they find it easier to meet their families' demands on their time. But conceptualizing their work as meaningful becomes more difficult than it is for professional women. Sociality is the third area of concern. Women in this study emphasized sociality because it allowed them to complete their work more effectively. It also served expressive functions; some women made friends at work. Some de-emphasized sociality if it interfered with their work identities. The importance of sociality was not necessarily dependent upon respondents' class location.I would like to thank Harold Bershady, Charles Bosk, and Robin Leidner for their comments and encouragement during the research and writing of this project. I would also like to thank M. E. Hughes, several anonymous reviewers, andQualitative Sociology for their helpful comments on earlier version of this article.     

The effect of public policies on recent Swedish fertility behavior

In the literature the recent upsurge in period birth rates is seen as evidence of a pronatalist effect of Sweden's extensive social insurance programs. Yet, these explanations can not account for the downturn in birth rates in the 1970s, the delay in childbearing, and the constancy of cohort birth rates which characterize recent Swedish fertility behavior. To summarize the effect of Sweden's economic and policy environment on the observed fertility patterns, I use a neoclassical economic framework to develop the shadow price of fertility. Although strong simplifying assumptions are imposed, the estimated price series exhibit a negative relationship with period fertility rates and the change in the estimated relative prices of fertility over the life cycle lend modest support for the delayed childbearing.The first draft of this paper was written while I was a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The research was supported by grants number HD-19226 and HD-28685 from the National Institute of Child Health and Development. I thank Glen Cain, John Kerman, Tom MaCurdy, Duncan Thomas, Michael Tilkin, and seminar participants at University of Illinois, Hoover Institution, and University of Wisconsin for useful comments.     

The prevalence of problem and pathological gambling: A critical analysis

Prevalence of pathological gambling refers to the percentage of cases of pathological gambling occurring in the community at a given time. Prevalence studies conducted in different principalities throughout the world are reviewed, and it is found that none of them conforms to this definition of prevalence. The major error in all but the most recent surveys conducted is identified as the use of questions which ask whether gambling-related problems have ever occurred rather than whether they are currently occurring. This error will lead to an over-estimation of the prevalence of pathological gambling in society. The second major error identified in nearly all studies involves the accuracy of the screens being used to assess whether or not an individual is a pathological gambler. Concerns about the efficiency of the South Oaks Gambling Screen have not yet been satisfactorily resolved. None-the-less, the widespread use of the South Oaks Gambling Screen has made a valuable contribution to international comparisons of prevalence studies. Future work that explores the emerging relationship between levels of personal expenditure on gambling, types of gambling product and gambling-related problems are recommended.     

Productivity indices and survival rate estimates from MAPS,a continent-wide programme of constant-effort mist-netting in North America

The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) programme is a cooperative effort to provide annual regional indices of adult population size and post-fledging productivity and estimates of adult survival rates from data pooled from a network of constant-effort mist-netting stations across North America. This paper provides an overview of the field and analytical methods currently employed by MAPS, a discussion of the assumptions underlying the use of these techniques, and a discussion of the validity of some of these assumptions based on data gathered during the first 5 years (1989-1993) of the programme, during which time it grew from 17 to 227 stations. Ageand species-specific differences in dispersal characteristics are important factors affecting the usefulness of the indices of adult population size and productivity derived from MAPS data. The presence of transients, heterogeneous capture probabilities among stations, and the large sample sizes required by models to deal effectively with these two considerations are important factors affecting the accuracy and precision of survival rate estimates derived from MAPS data. Important results from the first 5 years of MAPS are: (1) indices of adult population size derived from MAPS mist-netting data correlated well with analogous indices derived from point-count data collected at MAPS stations; (2) annual changes in productivity indices generated by MAPS were similar to analogous changes documented by direct nest monitoring and were generally as expected when compared to annual changes in weather during the breeding season; and (3) a model using between-year recaptures in Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) mark-recapture analyses to estimate the proportion of residents among unmarked birds was found, for most tropical-wintering species sampled, to provide a better fit with the available data and more realistic and precise estimates of annual survival rates of resident birds than did standard CJS mark-recapture analyses. A detailed review of the statistical characteristics of MAPS data and a thorough evaluation of the field and analytical methods used in the MAPS programme are currently under way.     

Attitude adjustment

How can you motivate physicians so that their decisions and behavior reflect what is best for the group practice, instead of themselves or their department? By clearly stating expectations and goals, physicians can learn that the priority must be the success of the group practice. Presented here is an example of how the Orlando Health Care Group (OHCG), a primary care medical group with 85 physicians in four specialties, addressed this challenge and the physicians' positive response to the change. To survive as a group, the OHCG had to abandon old ways of managing conflict and agree upon a list of core values around which it could evaluate all future physician behavior. The list became known as the "10 Commandments." They were meant to give every individual a sense of place and purpose within the group, knowing that the best way for an individual to prosper was to be part of a successful group.