春心莫共花争发,一寸相思一寸灰——评李商隐无题诗之幻灭感

李商隐的无题诗充满了悲剧美和幻灭感。究其原因与当时的日薄西山的晚唐颓势、政治漩涡中的悲惨仕遇、无可倚恃的不幸家世以及爱而不得的恋情悲歌等种种无奈与不幸有关。     

文学是价值的创造——以菲茨杰拉德为例

本文通过对菲茨杰拉德长篇小说中"美国梦"的产生、幻灭、更生的粗略梳理,阐述作家以文学的形式创造出某种生活的意义、反省并且致力于修正这种生活的意义。     

西共体安全合作的支持因素分析

西共体是目前非洲地区安全合作成效最为显著的次区域组织之一。文章尝试着用层次分析法对支持西共体安全合作的各种因素进行了研究探讨,认为在西共体实施安全合作,解决区域内冲突的过程中,全球层面的联合国,跨区域层面的欧盟(及成员国)及美国,区域层面的非统/非盟和国家层面的西共体内部大国都起到了重要的支持作用。     

图式理论在大学英语写作中的应用研究

一、图式理论概述 1."图式"的概念 图式(schema)这一概念的起源可以追溯到18世纪.1781年德国哲学家康德(kant)提出了认知图式的概念,认为概念本身并无意义,只有当它与人们已知的事物相联系时才产生意义.     

宪法概念的起源及其流变

constitution一词,首先经由英国政治实践固化为一个确定的政治概念;接着通过美国的政治试验成为一个地地道道的法律性概念;而那些社会契约论的信奉者们则运用“社会契约”方法,重新赋予了它新的含义,使其演变为一个优越于其他政治类型的现代立宪体制的代名词。近世以降,constitution一词东渐吾国,复又激活了“宪法”这一古老的汉语词汇。被深深地嵌入中国特定历史情境中的宪法概念由此获得了西方现代政制与中国本土性的双重蕴义。     

青少年亲社会行为研究

对青少年亲社会行为的发展状况及其与一些人格因素之间的预测关系进行了分析与讨论,并就此对青少年亲社会行为的培养提出了一些参考建议.从个体发展或社会教育的角度看,青少年亲社会行为的发展都应着眼于构建良好的社会和群体环境,并在尊重个体心理发展水平的基础上以自尊的人格素质为核心.     

80后大学生感恩意识研究

本文对80后大学生感恩意识的发展状况和存在的群体差异进行了初步探讨,认为大学生对于父母的感恩意识最强,其次是社会,再次是身边人。可从性别、是否独生子女的角度进行具体分析,提出加强大学生感恩意识的建议。     

Retrospective change detection in categorical time series

The aim of this paper is to propose methods of detecting change in the coefficients of a multinomial logistic regression model for categorical time series offline. The alternatives to the null hypothesis of stationarity can be either the hypothesis that it is not true, or that there is a temporary change in the sequence. We use the efficient score vector of the partial likelihood function. This has several advantages. First, the alternative value of the parameter does not have to be estimated; hence, we have a procedure that has a simple structure with only one parameter estimation using all available observations. This is in contrast with the generalized likelihood ratio-based change point tests. The efficient score vector is used in various ways. As a vector, its components correspond to the different components of the multinomial logistic regression model’s parameter vector. Using its quadratic form a test can be defined, where the presence of a change in any or all parameters is tested for. If there are too many parameters one can test for any subset while treating the rest as nuisance parameters. Our motivating example is a DNA sequence of four categories, and our test result shows that in the published data the distribution of the four categories is not stationary.     

On extreme order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions with applications

This paper treats the problem of stochastic comparisons for the extreme order statistics arising from heterogeneous beta distributions. Some sufficient conditions involved in majorization-type partial orders are provided for comparing the extreme order statistics in the sense of various magnitude orderings including the likelihood ratio order, the reversed hazard rate order, the usual stochastic order, and the usual multivariate stochastic order. The results established here strengthen and extend those including Kochar and Xu (2007 Kochar, S.C., Xu, M. (2007). Stochastic comparisons of parallel systems when components have proportional hazard rates. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 21:597–609.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Mao and Hu (2010 Mao, T., Hu, T. (2010). Equivalent characterizations on orderings of order statistics and sample ranges. Probab. Eng. Inf. Sci. 24:245–262.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), Balakrishnan et al. (2014 Balakrishnan, N., Barmalzan, G., Haidari, A. (2014). On usual multivariate stochastic ordering of order statistics from heterogeneous beta variables. J. Multivariate Anal. 127:147–150.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), and Torrado (2015 Torrado, N. (2015). On magnitude orderings between smallest order statistics from heterogeneous beta distributions. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 426:824–838.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). A real application in system assembly and some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Weighted simulated integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions of stationary time series processes

In this article, we propose a weighted simulated integrated conditional moment (WSICM) test of the validity of parametric specifications of conditional distribution models for stationary time series data, by combining the weighted integrated conditional moment (ICM) test of Bierens (1984 Bierens, H. J. (1984). Model specification testing of time series regressions. Journal of Econometrics 26:323–353.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) for time series regression models with the simulated ICM test of Bierens and Wang (2012 Bierens, H. J., Wang, L. (2012). Integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions. Econometric Theory 28:328–362.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) of conditional distribution models for cross-section data. To the best of our knowledge, no other consistent test for parametric conditional time series distributions has been proposed yet in the literature, despite consistency claims made by some authors.