基于统计检验的企业生命周期判定方法比较

文章选取32家中国上市汽车企业作为研究对象,分别用综合指标法和主成分分析法对企业所处生命周期进行判定,再利用Wilcoxon符号秩检验和kappa—致性检验对两种判定结果进行检验对比,从而得出结论:综合指标法和主成分分析法均科学有效,但在具体应用时各有所长.Wilcoxon符号秩检验和kappa—致性检验叠加运用效果较好,且检验结果具有一致性.     

A new confidence interval in errors-in-variables model with known error variance

This paper considers constructing a new confidence interval for the slope parameter in the structural errors-in-variables model with known error variance associated with the regressors. Existing confidence intervals are so severely affected by Gleser–Hwang effect that they are subject to have poor empirical coverage probabilities and unsatisfactory lengths. Moreover, these problems get worse with decreasing reliability ratio which also result in more frequent absence of some existing intervals. To ease these issues, this paper presents a fiducial generalized confidence interval which maintains the correct asymptotic coverage. Simulation results show that this fiducial interval is slightly conservative while often having average length comparable or shorter than the other methods. Finally, we illustrate these confidence intervals with two real data examples, and in the second example some existing intervals do not exist.     

Diagnostics for quasi-likelihood nonlinear models

Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models (QLNMs) are an extension of generalized linear model and include a widen class of models as special cases. This article investigates some diagnostic methods in QLNMs. An equivalency between a case-deletion model and a mean-shift outlier model in QLNM is established. Two simulation study and a real dataset are used to illustrate the proposed diagnostic methods.     

高速铁路桩板结构承载板伸缩温度力研究

以某高速铁路桩板结构路基工程为背景，研究了桩板结构路基单联跨数对承载板体伸缩温度应力的影响规律，提出了桩板结构的结构布置原则；并根据桩板结构路基具体结构特征，推导了计算结构整体升降温引起的承载板体伸缩温度应力计算公式，该解析式与空间有限元法计算结果较好吻合，可方便地计算承载板的伸缩温度应力。     

A dynamic product quality evaluation based pricing model for perishable food supply chains

Waste stemmed from inappropriate quality control and excessive inventories is a major challenge for perishable food management in grocery retail chains. Improvement of visibility and traceability in food supply chains facilitated by tracking and tracing technologies has great potential to improve operations efficiency. This research aims to reduce food spoilage waste and maximise food retailer's profit through a pricing approach based on dynamically identified food shelf life. The proposed model is evaluated through different pricing policies to exploit the benefits from utilising accurate product shelf life information captured through innovated tracking and monitoring technologies. Numerical analysis is conducted in an illustrative case study.     

中国文化心理学论要

中国文化心理学的意义在于其作为一种话语，能够促进心理学体系间的对话和发展。中国文化心理学的核心内容在于关注现实的社会心理生活，提供理解和改变心理生活的独特视角。在方法论层面，中国文化心理学研究必须坚持多维一体、实用主义的研究方式。     

食品全产业链三维风险评价

为了有效控制食品全产业链风险,降低食品安全事件发生概率和影响程度,文章运用三维风险分析模型构建食品全产业链风险评价模型.从全产业链流程视角分析食品全产业链的各环节风险,从而构建食品全产业链风险评价指标体系.然后,采用熵值法确定食品全产业链风险评价指标重要度,结合现有食品全产业链风险发生可能性统计资料和风险后果划分标准,确定食品全产业链的各环节风险影响因素风险程度.根据风险发生概率、风险指标重要度和风险因素发生后果三维风险评价模型确定的关键因素,寻求相应的食品安全风险控制措施.     

Depletion Effect of Work-Leisure Conflict: A Daily Diary Study

The negative effect of work-leisure conflict has attracted the attention of researchers. However, no previous research has determined the relationship between work-leisure conflict and ego depletion. Therefore, this study explores the relationship between daily work-leisure conflict and ego depletion, as well as the role of individuals’ negative emotions and core self-evaluations in this process based on ego depletion theory. Through the method of daily diary research, 77 employees were tracked for 7 consecutive work days. The results show that work-leisure conflict is positively related to employee ego depletion, that the negative emotions play a mediating role in this relationship and that core self-evaluations moderate the indirect effect of work-leisure conflict on ego depletion through negative emotions. In this study, daily diary method is used to verify the dynamic characteristics of work-leisure conflict, negative emotions and ego depletion, and some new insights into how to reduce employee ego depletion are provided.

     

对冲与制衡:日本“印太战略”的地缘政治逻辑与制约因素

日本“印太战略”是依据日本在当前国际格局中的地位和地缘政治现实制定的,目的是对冲和制衡中国在印太地区影响的扩展,以维护当前有利于日本的国际秩序,进而实现维护日本的国家利益。日本“印太战略”在政治和安全领域主要依托“四国安全对话机制”,以构建地区同盟架构的方式,逐步实现日本的地缘战略。这既是当前东亚地缘政治的现实,也是日本作为海洋型国家的战略选择。但是,由于合作国家的战略偏好和地缘利益的差异以及中国周边外交的成功实施,特别是国际格局演变的趋势,从不同的层面制约日本“印太战略”的实施。日本“印太战略”是一项综合性战略,是对中国“一带一路”倡议的针对性措施,对中国地区利益的影响较为广泛,中国应从战略上予以重视。     

Feature screening in ultrahigh-dimensional additive Cox model

The additive Cox model is flexible and powerful for modelling the dynamic changes of regression coefficients in the survival analysis. This paper is concerned with feature screening for the additive Cox model with ultrahigh-dimensional covariates. The proposed screening procedure can effectively identify active predictors. That is, with probability tending to one, the selected variable set includes the actual active predictors. In order to carry out the proposed procedure, we propose an effective algorithm and establish the ascent property of the proposed algorithm. We further prove that the proposed procedure possesses the sure screening property. Furthermore, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure via Monte Carlo simulations, and illustrate the proposed procedure by a real data example.