长江三角洲准区际统一资源环境保护立法框架研究

21世纪全球经济贸易一体化的国际政治经济新秩序使中国经济形成了转型且区域布局发生了变化,其中长江三角洲的区域特点和经济发展是中国转型区域的组成部分之一。为实现长江三角洲的区域立足世界贸易竞争和本区域发展,本文提出了需要有相配套的长江三角洲准区际统一资源环境保护法和区际可持续发展立法,完善中国国际私法的若干建议,目的为使该区域经济贸易具有持久发展的法律保障作为基石。     

Exponentially weighted moving average control charts for three-level products

In this paper, exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for multinomial data are developed with a three-level classification scheme. The lower and upper control limits of the proposed EWMA control chart are evaluated using Markov chain approximation. Compared with the three-level Shewhart control chart, numerical results indicate that the proposed EWMA control chart is relatively sensitive to small shifts in a three-level multinomial process. A figure and a table are provided for practitioners to select the value of chart limit coefficient that gives the desired in-control average run length.     

Extended Bayesian model averaging for heritability in twin studies

Family studies are often conducted to examine the existence of familial aggregation. Particularly, twin studies can model separately the genetic and environmental contribution. Here we estimate the heritability of quantitative traits via variance components of random-effects in linear mixed models (LMMs). The motivating example was a myopia twin study containing complex nesting data structures: twins and siblings in the same family and observations on both eyes for each individual. Three models are considered for this nesting structure. Our proposal takes into account the model uncertainty in both covariates and model structures via an extended Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) procedure. We estimate the heritability using EBMA under three suggested model structures. When compared with the results under the model with the highest posterior model probability, the EBMA estimate has smaller variation and is slightly conservative. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of variance-components estimates, as well as the selections of risk factors, under the correct or incorrect structure. The results indicate that EBMA, with consideration of uncertainties in both covariates and model structures, is robust in model misspecification than the usual Bayesian model averaging (BMA) that considers only uncertainty in covariates selection.     

Comparison of Several Confidence Intervals for Median Residual Lifetime with Left-truncated and Right-censored Data

For left-truncated and right-censored data, the technique proposed by Brookmeyer and Crowley (1982) is extended to construct a point-wise confidence interval for median residual lifetime. This procedure is computationally simpler than the score type confidence interval in Jeong et al. (2008) and empirical likelihood ratio confidence interval in Zhou and Jeong (2011). Further, transformations of the estimator are applied to improve the approximation to the asymptotic distribution for small sample sizes. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the accuracy of these confidence intervals and the implementation of these confidence intervals to two real datasets is illustrated.     

Semiparametric estimation for seasonal long-memory time series using generalized exponential models

We consider a generalized exponential (GEXP) model in the frequency domain for modeling seasonal long-memory time series. This model generalizes the fractional exponential (FEXP) model [Beran, J., 1993. Fitting long-memory models by generalized linear regression. Biometrika 80, 817–822] to allow the singularity in the spectral density occurring at an arbitrary frequency for modeling persistent seasonality and business cycles. Moreover, the short-memory structure of this model is characterized by the Bloomfield [1973. An exponential model for the spectrum of a scalar time series. Biometrika 60, 217–226] model, which has a fairly flexible semiparametric form. The proposed model includes fractionally integrated processes, Bloomfield models, FEXP models as well as GARMA models [Gray, H.L., Zhang, N.-F., Woodward, W.A., 1989. On generalized fractional processes. J. Time Ser. Anal. 10, 233–257] as special cases. We develop a simple regression method for estimating the seasonal long-memory parameter. The asymptotic bias and variance of the corresponding long-memory estimator are derived. Our methodology is applied to a sunspot data set and an Internet traffic data set for illustration.     

Inference of Seasonal Long‐memory Time Series with Measurement Error

We consider the Whittle likelihood estimation of seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average models in the presence of an additional measurement error and show that the spectral maximum Whittle likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal. We illustrate by simulation that ignoring measurement errors may result in incorrect inference. Hence, it is pertinent to test for the presence of measurement errors, which we do by developing a likelihood ratio (LR) test within the framework of Whittle likelihood. We derive the non‐standard asymptotic null distribution of this LR test and the limiting distribution of LR test under a sequence of local alternatives. Because in practice, we do not know the order of the seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average model, we consider three modifications of the LR test that takes model uncertainty into account. We study the finite sample properties of the size and the power of the LR test and its modifications. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated by a real‐life example.     

Optimal Selection of the Most Reliable Design Based on Gamma Degradation Processes

Manufacturers are often faced with the problem of how to select the most reliable design among several competing designs in the stage of development. It becomes complicated if products are highly reliable. Under the circumstances, recent work has focused on the study with degradation data by assuming that degradation paths follow Wiener processes or random-effect models. However, it is more appropriate to use gamma processes to model degradation data with monotone-increasing pattern. This article deals with the selection problem for such processes. With a minimum probability of correct decision, optimal test plans can be obtained by minimizing the total cost.     

我国乡村振兴发展水平综合评价研究

实施乡村振兴战略是解决我国社会主要矛盾的必然要求，是实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的必然要求，是实现全体人民共同富裕的必然要求。科学评价乡村振兴战略实施成效对推进乡村振兴战略具有重要意义。本研究依据乡村振兴战略总要求，从“产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕”五个维度构建包含21个基础指标的省域乡村振兴评价指标体系，运用熵权TOPSIS法以及莫兰指数对我国31个省份乡村振兴发展水平以及变化趋势进行分析。研究发现：我国乡村振兴总体水平呈增长态势，尤以2018年后的上升幅度最明显。但目前乡村振兴的水平仍然较低，且乡风文明和治理有效两个子系统的综合得分有所下降，甚至退步明显，其发展落后于平均水平的省份最多，是乡村振兴战略实施的薄弱环节。当前产业兴旺系统相较于其他子系统发展最为缓慢，生态宜居和生活富裕系统的地区差异最为明显，东部地区发展较好而西部地区发展欠佳。全局和局部莫兰指数表明，乡村振兴发展水平具有空间聚集特征，乡村振兴水平得分较高(低)的省份在地理位置上较为接近，区域差异明显，整体上呈现“东高西低”的分布特征，但该空间格局尚不稳定，区域差异随着时间的推移正在不断缩小。为此，本研究...