Structural Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression

Nonparametric estimation of a structural cointegrating regression model is studied. As in the standard linear cointegrating regression model, the regressor and the dependent variable are jointly dependent and contemporaneously correlated. In nonparametric estimation problems, joint dependence is known to be a major complication that affects identification, induces bias in conventional kernel estimates, and frequently leads to ill‐posed inverse problems. In functional cointegrating regressions where the regressor is an integrated or near‐integrated time series, it is shown here that inverse and ill‐posed inverse problems do not arise. Instead, simple nonparametric kernel estimation of a structural nonparametric cointegrating regression is consistent and the limit distribution theory is mixed normal, giving straightforward asymptotics that are useable in practical work. It is further shown that use of augmented regression, as is common in linear cointegration modeling to address endogeneity, does not lead to bias reduction in nonparametric regression, but there is an asymptotic gain in variance reduction. The results provide a convenient basis for inference in structural nonparametric regression with nonstationary time series when there is a single integrated or near‐integrated regressor. The methods may be applied to a range of empirical models where functional estimation of cointegrating relations is required.     

Friends of the Circuits: Interest Group Influence on Decision Making in the U.S. Courts of Appeals*

Objective. Though there is an extensive literature focused on the participation and efficacy of interest group amici curiae in the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little rigorous analysis of amici curiae in the U.S. Courts of Appeals. Here, we systematically analyze the influence of amicus curiae briefs on U.S. Court of Appeals decision making to provide insights regarding both judicial decision making and the efficacy of interest groups. Methods. We use a probit model to capture influences on appellant success in the courts of appeals from 1997–2002. Results. We find that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellant enhance the likelihood of that litigant's probability of success, but that amicus briefs filed in support of the appellee have no effect on litigation outcomes. Conclusion. Amici can help level the playing field between appellants and appellees by serving to counter the propensity to affirm in the U.S. Courts of Appeals.     

Optimal Bandwidth Selection in Heteroskedasticity–Autocorrelation Robust Testing

This paper considers studentized tests in time series regressions with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors. The studentization is based on robust standard errors with truncation lag M=bT for some constant b∈(0, 1] and sample size T. It is shown that the nonstandard fixed‐b limit distributions of such nonparametrically studentized tests provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the standard small‐b limit distribution. We further show that, for typical economic time series, the optimal bandwidth that minimizes a weighted average of type I and type II errors is larger by an order of magnitude than the bandwidth that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error of the corresponding long‐run variance estimator. A plug‐in procedure for implementing this optimal bandwidth is suggested and simulations (not reported here) confirm that the new plug‐in procedure works well in finite samples.     

The Impact of Managed Care on Field Instruction

Managed care is changing the provision of services to clients and the availability of field placements for students. This exploratory study, reporting on an October 1996 survey of social work field directors nationwide, confirms that placements have been lost because of managed care. Yet, it also notes that schools and agencies are reassessing their relationship and can collaborate to create different learning opportunities in the new environment. The findings have implications for deans, program directors, field directors, and regional and national organizations (such as the Council on Social Work Education) in the areas of revising the curriculum, confronting student expectations, and establishing new relationships with agencies.     

Notes on School-Based Crime Fighting: International Lessons in Moral Education

Few communities are immune to organized crime and corruption. What has not been fully explored is how education in lawfulness can be introduced into the curriculum of primary and secondary schools to confront the influences of criminal life styles that continue to be romanticized byfactions within a community. This paper reports on such efforts in Sicily, Hong Kong, Russia, and Mexico. Each community is vigorously seeking to repel negative influences from traditional strongholds of organized crime, which continue to exert powerful and pernicious effects on those societies.

Challenging organized crime requires more than governmental regulatory responses. Civic, business, labor, religious, social, and educational organizations all have a role in mitigating the scourge of lawlessness. A central question is to consider the ways in which a civil society can foster a culture of lawfulness. Promoting a set of beliefs and mobilizing the legal norms and institutions for changing, administering, and enforcing laws will enhance and protect “quality of life” is a task that some primary and secondary schools have begun to explore. One approach involves moral education, explicitly and directly teaching children and young people about the rewards and obligations in making moral and ethical decisions. This paper examines this effort in four, distinct cultural settings.     

Using Child Advocacy Center Tracking Data to Examine Criminal Disposition Times

Given the difficulty of obtaining criminal justice data on child abuse cases, information from child advocacy centers could be an important resource for answering questions about criminal justice outcomes for child abuse cases. In this exploratory study, we use data from one child advocacy center (N = 632) to examine the feasibility of using NCAtrak, a national computerized, Web-based case tracking system, to examine criminal disposition timeframes in child abuse cases. The system data indicated that the time frame for the cases to be criminally resolved varied widely. About one in four child physical and sexual abuse cases with adult offenders took more than one year to reach a final disposition. About 11% of child sexual abuse cases with juvenile offenders took more than one year to reach a criminal disposition. We encourage child advocacy centers using computer-based data systems to think of additional ways they might use this potentially rich source of data.     

Globalization and Free Trade Agreements: A Profile of a Nicaraguan Factory Community

This study examines a Nicaraguan community 3 years after the signing of the Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Qualitative and quantitative methods were used to learn how families, living in a community constructed near a US-owned factory, maintained resilience under growing negative conditions. These conditions relate to family dislocation, loss of support systems, lack of childcare, safe water, and food security, in addition to labor injustices. Although maintaining relatively high scores on a baseline resilience test, these families and others like them in Central America, demonstrate a struggle for survival in a globalized context.     

Heritage and Community Regeneration in Northern Ireland: Finding Points of Coalescence in the Development Planning Process

ABSTRACT

Bringing heritage resources to the forefront in communities can serve to help heal long-standing divides with impacts not only in economic dimensions, but also social and cultural. It is an ironic turn—some of the heritage resources in Northern Ireland have been the site of intense and violent conflict over long periods of time—and now serve as focal points for bringing together divergent groups, helping heal divisions in communities. Seventeen communities throughout Northern Ireland are examined, gauging impacts and perceptions of community regeneration and redevelopment processes. Results provide insights for addressing lingering conflict and finding points of coalescence, with heritage playing a role in transformation.     

The Importance of Early,Targeted Intervention: The Effect of Family,Maternal, and Child Characteristics on the Use of Physical Discipline

Secondary analysis of Early Head Start Research and Evaluation Study longitudinal data explored family, parent, and child factors that contribute to the use of physical discipline with infants and toddlers. The sample included mothers (N = 1,580) who self reported the use of spanking at 14, 24, and 36 months. Eighteen percent of the mothers (n = 287) indicated that their children experienced consistent physical discipline. Data were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Participation in parenting classes resulted in a 30% reduction in the use of physical discipline. For every year older the mother was at the birth of the child, there was a 7% decrease in physical discipline. Increased knowledge of child development reduced spanking by 35%. Implications for social work practice with families of young children are discussed.