A comparison study of realtime fatality rates: severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Toronto and Beijing, China

Summary.  In an outbreak of a completely new infectious disease like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), estimation of the fatality rate over the course of the epidemic is of clinical and epidemiological importance. In contrast with the constant case fatality rate, a new measure, termed the 'realtime' fatality rate, is proposed for monitoring the new emerging epidemic at a population level. A competing risk model implemented via a counting process is used to estimate the realtime fatality rate in an epidemic of SARS. It can capture and reflect the time-varying nature of the fatality rate over the course of the outbreak in a timely and accurate manner. More importantly, it can provide information on the efficacy of a certain treatment and management policy for the disease. The method has been applied to the SARS data from the regions affected, namely Hong Kong, Singapore, Toronto, Taiwan and Beijing. The magnitudes and patterns of the estimated fatalities are virtually the same except in Beijing, which has a lower rate. It is speculated that the effect is linked to the different treatment protocols that were used. The standard estimate of the case fatality rate that was used by the World Health Organization has been shown to be unable to provide useful information to monitor the time-varying fatalities that are caused by the epidemic.     

Violence Exposure and Drug Use in Central American Youth: Family Cohesion and Parental Monitoring as Protective Factors

Associations between witnessing serious violence and drug use, and the protective influences of family cohesion and parental monitoring, were investigated among 9,840 adolescents (50.5% female, M age=15.29 years, SD=1.76) living in Panama and Costa Rica. After accounting for demographics and parental and sibling substance use, witnessing serious violence was associated with greater drunkenness, tobacco use, number of illicit drugs used, and problems with drugs and alcohol. In every analysis, exposure to violence was associated with more drug use, while family cohesion and parental monitoring attenuated risk. Further, family cohesion and parental monitoring exerted a protective‐stabilizing effect on number of illicit drugs used and on problems with drugs and alcohol. There were few interactions with age. Implications for prevention are discussed.     

THE ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND WHITE ADOLESCENTS

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), we analyze African-American and white respondents' reports of the nature of their romantic experiences. We explore levels of companionate intimacy, including frequency of interaction and intimate self-disclosure, degree of romantic and sexual intimacy, as well as problem areas including relationship violence and nonexclusivity. African-American respondents report relationships of longer average duration relative to white youths, but overall responses reflect a somewhat less intense or intimate relationship style. These observed differences were not completely attenuated once relevant controls are introduced. We connect these findings to prior research on African-American adolescent family and peer relations, and call for additional research that supplements the behavioral emphasis of Add Health.     

No-Fault Divorce and the Compression of Marriage Ages

We examine how no-fault divorce law affects the age at first marriage, when everyone has a different value of marriage. The heterogeneity of individual values implies an unambiguous negative effect on the variance of marriage age. We test this hypothesis with marriage records from 1970 to 1995. Controlling for state-level heterogeneity and for time trends, the standard deviation of the log age at first marriage drops by approximately 5% with the introduction of no-fault divorce. We find that the mean age at first marriage increases slightly, suggesting that the mean person is slightly worse off with no-fault divorce. (JEL K0 , D1 )     

Sounds of Silence: narrative research with inarticulate subjects

This article addresses the challenge of using narrative methods with people who have learning difficulties. Such informants present four particular interview problems: inarticulateness; unresponsiveness; a concrete frame of reference; and difficulties with the concept of time. The authors focus on the first two of these problems and argue that neither of them constitutes an insuperable barrier to people telling their story. Drawing on detailed interview material from an informant with learning difficulties, the authors set out to show in practical terms how these problems might be tackled, emphasising in particular the importance of being attentive to what goes unsaid. They conclude that researchers should put more emphasis on overcoming the barriers that impede the involvement of inarticulate subjects in narrative research instead of dwelling on their limitations as informants.     

The dependence of voter shares under a two-vote system

In an electoral system where each voter is allowed to select up to two candidates in a double-seat constituency, the combination of votes forms a special kind of contingency table. The usual hypothesis of complete independence of the voter shares for the candidates is of interest, but it is shown to be almost unattainable. The correlation coefficient of the voter shares is constructed. It is shown to be equivalent to Pearson's phi coefficient. The limitations of the coefficient are discussed. It is found that the use of conditional probabilities gives a better understanding of the dependence of the voter shares under the system considered.     

Parental divorce and subsequent disadvantage: A cross-cohort comparison

Although many studies have examined the link between parental divorce and subsequent well-being, some theories of the effects of divorce suggest that the negative associations should have declined over time. However, few studies have examined the extent to which the associations have remained stable over time. Using data from two British cohorts, we analyzed both shorter- and longer-term outcomes of children who experienced parental divorce and the extent to which the associations have changed over time. Estimating similar models for both cohorts, we found little evidence of any change in the size of the relationship as divorce became more commonplace.     

Playing with conflict: a longitudinal study of varieties of spontaneous verbal conflict during mother-child interaction at home

Although conflict is central to major developmental theories, relatively little is known about the ways in which young children and caregivers argue at home. The existing psychological research focuses narrowly on serious, ‘problem-solving’ conflicts. In contrast, this in-depth longitudinal study describes varieties of spontaneous conflict talk occurring at home between nine middle-class Caucasian American mothers and their 2- to 4-year-old children. All dyads produced conflicts with nonse-rious, imaginary and/or ritual markings for a mean of 31% (± 2.8%) of all mother-child conflicts. Overall, most mother-child marked conflicts were nonserious, but the percentage of marked conflicts that were imaginary increased with age. Mothers used marked conflicts to manage ongoing problematic interactions with their children, while children apparently introduced marked conflicts primarily during play. Available data on child-child conflicts showed that some of these conflicts also were marked and were introduced primarily during play. Implications for how varieties of conflict may contribute to social competence within the family and peer group are discussed.     

Monte Carlo Approximations of the Quantiles of a Sample Statistic

We consider in this article the problem of numerically approximating the quantiles of a sample statistic for a given population, a problem of interest in many applications, such as bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed Monte Carlo method can be routinely applied to handle complex problems that lack analytical results. Furthermore, the method yields estimates of the quantiles of a sample statistic of any sample size though Monte Carlo simulations for only two optimally selected sample sizes are needed. An analysis of the Monte Carlo design is performed to obtain the optimal choices of these two sample sizes and the number of simulated samples required for each sample size. Theoretical results are presented for the bias and variance of the numerical method proposed. The results developed are illustrated via simulation studies for the classical problem of estimating a bivariate linear structural relationship. It is seen that the size of the simulated samples used in the Monte Carlo method does not have to be very large and the method provides a better approximation to quantiles than those based on an asymptotic normal theory for skewed sampling distributions.     

Son preference and educational opportunities of children in China— “I wish you were a boy!”

Gender bias in family formation, such as sex selected-abortion, imbalance of the sex ratio, child abandonment, and sibling size/order in relation to fertility is well documented in China. Much less is known about continued gender bias after birth in relation to children's status inside the family. In particular, there is a relative scarcity of research on the impact of the parental son preference in determining differential educational opportunities of male and female children. Continued and fast economic growth in China is not accompanied by the dramatic change in traditional value, and many peasants still hold son preference value. Using 1990 China census data and drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in Beijing and its suburbs, I examine children's educational opportunities, and investigate the relationship between parents who hold the son preference value and their unequal treatment when rearing children. The results demonstrated that the continued son preference value, based on traditional views as well as on perceived financial returns to families, leads to a lower level of educational attainment among daughters in rural areas of China. The lower educational attainment and higher labor force participation rates of rural female adolescents reflect unequal opportunities provided by their parents in addition to social inequality in China. Children who live in urban areas with educated parents received better educational opportunities and experience less gender bias. She received her Ph.D. in sociology from the University of California, Los Angeles in 1993. Her research interests include social demography, social deviance, social psychology, race and ethnicity, and quantitative sociology. Her recent publications include illegal drug rehabilitation and detoxification, international migration, sociology of emotions, and gender inequality.