Detecting fuzzy periodic patterns in futures spreads

This paper extends an optimal frequency domain test for the detection of synchronous patterns in multiple time series to the case of fuzzy patterns, which are not confined to single frequencies or narrow frequency bands. Applying this extension to corn futures with different delivery dates, we obtain significant results only for the spreads between the different contracts but not for the original contracts, which is an indication that spread trading has the advantage of increased predictability.     

Being of two minds: Ultimatum offers under cognitive constraints

We experimentally investigate how proposers in the Ultimatum Game behave when their cognitive resources are constrained by time pressure and cognitive load. In a dual-system perspective, when proposers are cognitively constrained and thus their deliberative capacity is reduced, their offers are more likely to be influenced by spontaneous affective reactions. We find that under time pressure proposers make higher offers. This increase appears not to be explained by more reliance on an equality heuristic. Analysing the behaviour of the same individual in both roles leads us to favour the strategic over the other-regarding explanation for the observed increase in offers. In contrast, proposers who are under cognitive load do not behave differently from proposers who are not.     

The Relationship Between Psychological Understanding and Positive Social Behaviors

This research investigates the relationship between psychological understanding and positive social behavior in preschool children. A sample of 67 children were given measures of mental state understanding and emotion understanding. Positive social behavior was measured by classroom observation, teacher report and peer ratings. Both mental state understanding and emotion understanding were positively related to teacher ratings of social skills, behavioral observers’ global ratings of social skills and peer popularity. When language ability was partialled out of these relationships, many of the significant correlations disappeared; however, for variables related to peers’ perceptions, psychological understanding continued to predict unique variance. The results are discussed in terms of the multiple determinacy of positive social behaviors and the potential role of language in these processes.     

Mediation across generations: A tri-generational perspective

The meaning of mediation across generations was examined qualitatively in 20 grandparent–parent–grandchild triads.Parental mediation was the most dominant type of intergenerational mediation. However, evidence was found also regarding grandparent's and grandchild's mediation.The role of the mother as a mediator was recognized and accepted by all generations, although it was not always accepted happily by the mothers. Our results showed that grandparent's mediation is present in intact families, but mostly in cases of family crisis. Finally, grandchild's mediation emerged especially when the bond between the grandparent and the parent was weak or problematic.Findings of this study provide a first insight in examining intergenerational mediation from a tri-generational approach.     

Problems of points of inflection in trend functions as described by a model for the forecast of brand shares

Trends often have special points of uncertainty (surprises) which make forecasts by trend extrapolation impossible. Such points of uncertainty are found especially at points of inflection of functions. In many cases it will be possible to decompose the trend to be forecast into two or more (causal) time series which have no points of inflection. By extrapolating these individual time series it will then be possible to predict the trajectory of the trend function inclusive of the point of inflection. This method is represented and critically discussed by means of an example for the forecast of a brand share.Werner Kroeber-Riel, Dr. rer. pol., is full professor of business and head of the Institute for Research in Consumption and Behavior at the University of the Saar in Saarbrücken.Sighard Roloff is a certified mathematician and assistant at the Institute for Research in Consumption and Behavior at the University of the Saar in Saarbrücken.This contribution first appeared under the title: Zur Problematik von Wendepunkten in Trendfunktionen, dargestellt an einem Modell zur Prognose von Marktanteilen, Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung 24 (1972) 294–300.