Correlation-adjusted estimation of sensitivity and specificity of two diagnostic tests

Summary. Models for multiple-test screening data generally require the assumption that the tests are independent conditional on disease state. This assumption may be unreasonable, especially when the biological basis of the tests is the same. We propose a model that allows for correlation between two diagnostic test results. Since models that incorporate test correlation involve more parameters than can be estimated with the available data, posterior inferences will depend more heavily on prior distributions, even with large sample sizes. If we have reasonably accurate information about one of the two screening tests (perhaps the standard currently used test) or the prevalences of the populations tested, accurate inferences about all the parameters, including the test correlation, are possible. We present a model for evaluating dependent diagnostic tests and analyse real and simulated data sets. Our analysis shows that, when the tests are correlated, a model that assumes conditional independence can perform very poorly. We recommend that, if the tests are only moderately accurate and measure the same biological responses, researchers use the dependence model for their analyses.     

The influence of childhood maltreatment and self-control on dating violence: a comparison of college students in the United States and South Korea

Various aspects of social learning and self-control theories have been applied to partner violence among multiple samples in the United States, but these theoretical approaches have been less commonly studied cross-culturally. Consequently, childhood maltreatment and low self-control have been identified as risk factors for various outcomes in primarily American samples. This study examined the relationships between childhood maltreatment, low self-control, and dating violence among college students in South Korea and the United States. Findings indicated that experiencing childhood maltreatment and having low self-control were key predictors of perpetration and victimization for both psychological and physical relationship violence. Witnessing interparental violence during childhood was less consistently predictive of one's involvement in a violent dating relationship. Implications for theory and policy are discussed.     

Geographic Distributions of Extreme Weather Risk Perceptions in the United States

Weather and climate disasters pose an increasing risk to life and property in the United States. Managing this risk requires objective information about the nature of the threat and subjective information about how people perceive it. Meteorologists and climatologists have a relatively firm grasp of the historical objective risk. For example, we know which parts of the United States are most likely to experience drought, heat waves, flooding, snow or ice storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes. We know less about the geographic distribution of the perceived risks of meteorological events and trends. Do subjective perceptions align with exposure to weather risks? This question is difficult to answer because analysts have yet to develop a comprehensive and spatially consistent methodology for measuring risk perceptions across geographic areas in the United States. In this project, we propose a methodology that uses multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate extreme weather and climate risk perceptions by geographic area (i.e., region, state, forecast area, and county). Then we apply the methodology using data from three national surveys (n = 9,542). This enables us to measure, map, and compare perceptions of risk from multiple weather hazards in geographic areas across the country.     

Engaging men as social justice allies in ending violence against women: evidence for a social norms approach

The field of sexual assault prevention is shifting attention to educational interventions that address the role of men in ending violence against women. Recent studies document the often-misperceived norms men hold about other men's endorsement of rape-supportive attitudes and behaviors. The authors provide further evidence supporting the design of population-based social norms interventions to prevent sexual assault. Data from this study suggest that men underestimate the importance that most men and women place on consent and willingness of most men to intervene against sexual violence. In addition, men's personal adherence to only consensual activity and their willingness to act as women's allies are strongly influenced by their perceptions of other men's and women's norms. These findings support the proposition that accurate normative data, which counters the misperception of rape-supportive environments, can be a critical part of comprehensive campus efforts to catalyze and support men's development as women's social justice allies in preventing sexual violence against women.     

Gender,electrodermal activity,and videogames: Adding a psychophysiological dimension to sociolinguistic methods

User experience research on the affective dimensions of videogame players’ interactions has looked to psychophysiological measures as proxies for emotional states. We add to the growing body of literature on this topic and offer our research as a novel application to the methodological toolbox of sociolinguistics. We present a case study of an interaction occurring in a mixed‐gender group (3m/1f) playing a video game that has a potentially sexualized component in gameplay, using a Nintendo Wii‐mote joystick as a mimetic penis in the game Mario Party 8. Through a detailed analysis of (1) gameplay interaction, including talk, laughter and gesture, (2) participants’ electrodermal activity (EDA), and (3) a post‐game debriefing, we track the varied engagements of the players in‐game and with each other, showing how the design of the game itself and the entanglement of hardware and software design with gendered gameplay serve to marginalize and exclude the female participant.     

World society and the natural environment

We review the world society approach to explaining macrohistorical change generally and as it relates to the natural environment specifically. Our review includes work describing the rise of the environmental world society as well as empirical evidence of the consequences of national ties to world society for policy adoption, practices, and individual attitudes at the national level. Additionally, we suggest the application of world society theory to state and substate structures. Throughout the review, we situate the world society literature in relationship to work in the fields of cross‐national comparative and environmental sociology from a variety of other perspectives. We take a forward‐looking approach to our review of theoretical and empirical work in the field and consider the implications for normative change and resistance to prevailing world cultural norms. We conclude with a discussion of the resurgence of nationalism especially as it relates to antienvironmentalism.     

Behavioral economics and the economics of Keynes

The aim of this paper is two-fold: it first evaluates some of the psychological insights offered by Keynes in his economic theories, and secondly it weighs up these insights in the light of recent research in behavioral and experimental economics. We found that many of the psychological ideas set forth by Keynes in his economic works, especially in The General Theory, have a defensible behavioral foundation and fit broadly the actual behavior of economic agents in the real world as suggested by recent empirical evidence. As a consequence, we argue that Keynesian economics can benefit from this interaction, especially for issues related to judgment under uncertainty and building solid microfoundations for macroeconomics.     

Semiparametric inference for survival models with step process covariates

The authors consider Bayesian methods for fitting three semiparametric survival models, incorporating time‐dependent covariates that are step functions. In particular, these are models due to Cox [Cox ( 1972 ) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 34, 187–208], Prentice & Kalbfleisch and Cox & Oakes [Cox & Oakes ( 1984 ) Analysis of Survival Data, Chapman and Hall, London]. The model due to Prentice & Kalbfleisch [Prentice & Kalbfleisch ( 1979 ) Biometrics, 35, 25–39], which has seen very limited use, is given particular consideration. The prior for the baseline distribution in each model is taken to be a mixture of Polya trees and posterior inference is obtained through standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. They demonstrate the implementation and comparison of these three models on the celebrated Stanford heart transplant data and the study of the timing of cerebral edema diagnosis during emergency room treatment of diabetic ketoacidosis in children. An important feature of their overall discussion is the comparison of semi‐parametric families, and ultimate criterion based selection of a family within the context of a given data set. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 60–79; © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada