RECONCILING MICRO AND MACRO ESTIMATES OF THE FRISCH LABOR SUPPLY ELASTICITY

This paper explores the large gap between the microeconometric estimates of the Frisch labor supply elasticity (0–.5) and the values used by macroeconomists to calibrate general equilibrium models (2–4). These two ranges identify two fundamentally different notions, the micro and macro Frisch elasticity, respectively. Due to the different definitions, there are two restrictions in the micro Frisch elasticity that are relaxed in the macro Frisch elasticity. First, the micro Frisch elasticity focuses only on prime‐aged married males who are the head of their household, while the macro Frisch elasticity represents the whole population. Second, the micro Frisch elasticity only incorporates intensive margin fluctuations in hours, while the macro Frisch elasticity includes both intensive and extensive margin fluctuations. This paper finds that relaxing these two restrictions causes estimates of the Frisch elasticity to increase from 0.2 to between 2.9 and 3.1, indicating that these two restrictions can explain the gap between the microeconometric estimates and the calibration values. However, this paper demonstrates that these estimates of the macro Frisch elasticity are sensitive to the estimation procedure and also the exclusion of older individuals, implying that calibration values used for macroeconomic models should be selected carefully. (JEL E24, J22)     

Improved inference for areal unit count data using graph-based optimisation

Statistics and Computing - Profile likelihood confidence intervals are a robust alternative to Wald’s method if the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are not met....     

Confiding About Problems in Marriage and Long‐Term Committed Relationships: A National Study

This study examined confiding patterns in a national sample of 1000 U.S. adults aged 25–70 to inform the development of an educational program for confidants, called Marital First Responders. Results showed that 73% of U.S. adults have been a confidant to someone with a problem in a marriage or long‐term committed relationship. The most common confiding relationship was between friends, followed by siblings. Confidants reported a wide range of problems brought to them, ranging from everyday complaints to serious issues such as infidelity and divorce. Confiders identified the most and least helpful responses. Findings suggest that naturally occurring confiding relationships have considerable potential to be the first level of help for troubled couple relationships.     

Global Anti‐Money Laundering Standards and Developing Economies: The Regulation of Mobile Money

This article discusses the confluence of international initiatives to counter money laundering and terrorist finance with migrant remittances and the growing use of mobile telephone technology for more than making a call. The experiences of Kenya and the Philippines with mobile telephone‐based financial services are outlined as potential models consistent with the ‘risk‐based’ approach now promoted by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), one objective being to encourage the implementation of regulation of m‐money services by recognising the development and social‐welfare opportunities offered by the technology in the context of a developing economy.     

Industrial change, Hispanic immigration, and the internal migration of low-skilled native male workers in the United States, 1995-2000

Debates over immigration’s impact on less advantaged native workers often ignore industrial structure for creating segregated labor markets and demand for immigrant workers. We analyze population movements of less-educated foreign-born Hispanic, native-born Hispanic, White, and Black men between 1995 and 2000 using MIGPUMA-level 2000 PUMS data. We model in-migration, out-migration, and net migration for each group controlling for demographic composition, employment structure, change in employment structure, labor market indicators, and macro contextual measures. Results indicate positive significant relationships between migration patterns of all groups and support labor demand explanations of internal low-skilled migration emphasizing industrial change rather than labor competition.     

An Introduction to Second-Generation p-Values

ABSTRACT

Second generation p-values preserve the simplicity that has made p-values popular while resolving critical flaws that promote misinterpretation of data, distraction by trivial effects, and unreproducible assessments of data. The second-generation p-value (SGPV) is an extension that formally accounts for scientific relevance by using a composite null hypothesis that captures null and scientifically trivial effects. Because the majority of spurious findings are small effects that are technically nonnull but practically indistinguishable from the null, the second-generation approach greatly reduces the likelihood of a false discovery. SGPVs promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori identifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with the candidate hypotheses or null hypotheses, or when the data are inconclusive. We illustrate the importance of these advances using a dataset of 247,000 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, i.e., genetic markers that are potentially associated with prostate cancer.     

“The Rule Was the Rule”: new member socialization in rigidly structured totalistic organizations

This study examined member encounter in two organizations with rigid rule structures and great reach into members’ lives: the U.S. military and the Independent Fundamental Baptist Church. Interviews conducted with members allowed emergence of the lived experience of organizational entry in the words of participants in thematic categories. Findings challenge current views of encounter as a negotiation between currently held beliefs and organizational role and suggest a more nuanced view of organizational encounter that is tied to the reach of the organization into the member’s life. Findings also suggest that in totalistic organizations, encounter is designed to quickly manufacture enacted organizational identities that maintain and reproduce organizational rule systems.