An asset-building agenda for the twenty-first century: giving families something to live for

Though studies have clearly illustrated that education is one of the primary paths to upward mobility, a growing body of research is beginning to show that the returns on education are determined more by initial wealth than innate ability and exerted effort in school. This accounting directly contradicts Americans’ understanding of the promise of the American Dream: a level playing field and a path towards a more prosperous future. Currently, this contradiction goes largely unchecked by researchers because of their reluctance to engage in a discussion about values. As a result, the mere discussion of wealth transfer, a policy about thriving, is seen as taboo, and we are left with conversations about how to provide the poor with enough merely to survive. However, in this paper, the conversation about wealth transfer is revived and articulated as an American idea consistent with American values. It goes on to offer Children’s Savings Accounts, in combination with a substantial progressive wealth transfer into these accounts, as a means of leveling the playing field and restoring education as an equalizer in society.     

“I Felt Guilty for Being So Happy”: Narrative Expressions and Management of Postdivorce Ambivalence

Scholars have highlighted ambivalence as a central feature of experiences of divorce and its aftermath and discussed ambivalence as an important issue for divorcees in adjusting to their new status. While most of this scholarship assesses postdivorce ambivalence as a psychological phenomenon to be addressed therapeutically, this study analyzes postdivorce ambivalence as an interpretive problem to be addressed sociologically. Following Merton’s (1976) insight that ambivalence be viewed as rooted in culture and social structure as well as individual psyche, we use a narrative analytic perspective to examine how divorcees both discursively express and interpretively manage their ambivalence. We then consider some of the more general cultural discourses—such as images of marriage and divorce—that shape or condition these narratives. Ultimately, we argue that conflicting stances toward marriage in the wider U.S. culture are at once important sources of postdivorce ambivalence and significant interpretive resources for its discursive management.     

A general algorithm for computing simultaneous prediction intervals for the (log)-location-scale family of distributions

Making predictions of future realized values of random variables based on currently available data is a frequent task in statistical applications. In some applications, the interest is to obtain a two-sided simultaneous prediction interval (SPI) to contain at least k out of m future observations with a certain confidence level based on n previous observations from the same distribution. A closely related problem is to obtain a one-sided upper (or lower) simultaneous prediction bound (SPB) to exceed (or be exceeded) by at least k out of m future observations. In this paper, we provide a general approach for computing SPIs and SPBs based on data from a particular member of the (log)-location-scale family of distributions with complete or right censored data. The proposed simulation-based procedure can provide exact coverage probability for complete and Type II censored data. For Type I censored data, our simulation results show that our procedure provides satisfactory results in small samples. We use three applications to illustrate the proposed simultaneous prediction intervals and bounds.     

The conceptualization of mistreatment by older American Indians

The problem of how to conceptualize elder mistreatment goes back several decades, and is especially important for ethnic minority populations, who may have perspectives that differ from the dominant society. This community-based participatory research study, which examined perceptions of mistreatment by family among 100 urban and rural older American Indians, permits a rare glimpse into how Native elders themselves understand this issue. Here, good treatment was conceptualized in terms of being taken care of, having one’s needs met, and being respected. We found relatively high standards for how elders should be treated—such as the belief that an elder’s needs should be anticipated and met without the elder needing to ask—in the face of widespread accounts of the mistreatment of elders within the community, largely through various acts of financial exploitation and neglect. Substance abuse and culture loss were blamed formuch of the elder mistreatment occurring in contemporary Native communities.     

Estimated Rate of Fatal Automobile Accidents Attributable to Acute Solvent Exposure at Low Inhaled Concentrations

Acute solvent exposures may contribute to automobile accidents because they increase reaction time and decrease attention, in addition to impairing other behaviors. These effects resemble those of ethanol consumption, both with respect to behavioral effects and neurological mechanisms. These observations, along with the extensive data on the relationship between ethanol consumption and fatal automobile accidents, suggested a way to estimate the probability of fatal automobile accidents from solvent inhalation. The problem can be approached using the logic of the algebraic transitive postulate of equality: if A=B and B=C, then A=C. We first calculated a function describing the internal doses of solvent vapors that cause the same magnitude of behavioral impairment as ingestion of ethanol (A=B). Next, we fit a function to data from the literature describing the probability of fatal car crashes for a given internal dose of ethanol (B=C). Finally, we used these two functions to generate a third function to estimate the probability of a fatal car crash for any internal dose of organic solvent vapor (A=C). This latter function showed quantitatively (1) that the likelihood of a fatal car crash is increased by acute exposure to organic solvent vapors at concentrations less than 1.0 ppm, and (2) that this likelihood is similar in magnitude to the probability of developing leukemia from exposure to benzene. This approach could also be applied to other potentially adverse consequences of acute exposure to solvents (e.g., nonfatal car crashes, property damage, and workplace accidents), if appropriate data were available.     

International migration and development in mexican communities

The theoretical and empirical literature generally regards international migration as producing a cycle of dependency and stunted development in sending communities. Most migrants’ earnings are spent on consumption; few funds are channeled into productive investment. We argue that this view is misleading because it ignores the conditions under which productive investment is likely to be possible and profitable. We analyze the determinants of migrants’ savings and remittance decisions, using variables defined at the individual, household, community, and macroeconomic levels. We identify the conditions under which U.S. earnings are repatriated to Mexico as remittances and savings, and indicate the factors leading to their productive investment.     

Gender differences in retirement decisions in Hong Kong

The study of labor force participation at older ages and the process of retirement do not have a long tradition in Asia's newly developed societies. This study, based on telephone survey of 950 respondents, examines various socio-economic factors that would influence retirement decision among older workers in Hong Kong. The findings show that older men were more likely to participate in the labor force than older women. Interestingly, older workers, in particular older women, with pension were less likely to retire. Having a working spouse decreased the likelihood of retirement and older workers, in particular older women, living with married children were more likely to retire. Poor health also discourages the propensity to continue working at old age. These findings confirm that retirement entails much more than just a decision to stop work, and that there were gender differences in retirement decision. Finally, several policy challenges, with reference to elderly women, concerning older workers' labor force participation were discussed.     

Age patterns of chinese marital fertility, 1950–1981

Coale and Trussell’s model of marital fertility is used to analyze data from China’s National One-per-Thousand Fertility Survey. Rural China experienced a regime of natural fertility until 1970, after which levels of fertility control rose with unprecedented speed and with an age pattern starkly dissimilar from that observed in other populations. Urban marital fertility was apparently under a modest level of deliberate control in the 1950s, with a sustained rise in control beginning in 1963. Natural fertility was low relative to other populations, with the urban level exceeding the rural.     

The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan "turnaround" represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the "new" migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.     

Immigration and internal migration “flight”: A California case study

Recent analyses of 1990 census migration data have pointed up disparities in the way immigration and internal migration contributions affect an area's demographic profile. They show that there is little overlap between states with large population gains from internal migration from other parts of the United States and states with large population gains from immigration from abroad. This emerging pattern, along with the fact that immigration and internal migration select on very different demographic characteristics, could lead toward a demographic balkanization of the nation's population. This paper evaluates immigration-induced out-movement from California, based on an analysis of recently released migration data from the 1990 U.S. census. The results presented here suggest that California's out-migration consists of two different migration systems: first, an immigration-induced flight that exports lower income and less-educated Californians, primarily, to the nearby states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona. And second, a more conventional migration exchange with the rest of the United States that involves the redistribution of better educated, higher income migrants. It is the former migration system which appears to be most responsive to the low-skilled immigration flows, while the latter should be responsive to more conventional labor market employment characteristics. This implies that, irrespective of changing economic conditions in the state, the continued immigration of low-skilled migrants will lead to more losses of native-born internal migrants to neighboring states and metropolitan areas. However, these migrant streams will not be made up of the best and brightest residents that characterize most conventional migration streams.A longer version of this report with more extensive background statistics isResearch Report 94–306 (Frey, 1994b) available from Publications, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.