THE EFFECT AND COST OF FORECAST ERROR BIAS FOR MULTIPLE-STAGE PRODUCTION-INVENTORY SYSTEMS

This paper examines forecast error with an intention not to minimize forecast error so much as to bias the resultant error in order to achieve better managerial results. Much work has been accomplished by other researchers toward the goal of minimizing forecast error—sometimes by the use of sophisticated forecasting techniques. The results of this paper indicate that manipulating forecast error bias may be the better managerial strategy as opposed to going to great lengths to minimize forecast error. Subject Areas: Forecasting, Aggregate Planning, Capacity Planning, and Production/Operations Management.     

A CANONICAL ANALYSIS OF MANAGERIAL-ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS: IMPLICATIONS FOR METHODOLOGY AND POLICY*

The present study uses canonical analysis to examine the contingency model of organizations in the nursing home field. Data on environmental pressures and managerial practices relevant to the decision-making process are analyzed. Results support the theory that managerial practices are contingent on environmental pressures. The implications of these results for health-care decision makers and for future assessments of managerial-environmental relationships are discussed.     

Do Associations Between Pleasure Ratings and Condom Use During Penile–Vaginal Intercourse Vary by Relationship Type?: A Study of Canadian University Students

Research suggests the relationship between pleasure and condom use during penile–vaginal intercourse (PVI) is associated with relationship status. This online study examined pleasure ratings and condom use at last PVI, stratifying by partner type, among a national sample of Canadian university students. Participants were 715 undergraduates (60.7% women, 39.3% men) who reported on their most recent sexual experience. Condom use decreased with level of relationship commitment, whereas ratings of pleasure increased. Overall, participants were more likely to rate their most recent PVI as Very pleasurable when condoms were not used compared to when condoms were used. However, when stratified by partner type, these differences largely disappeared. For women, with one exception, there were no differences in pleasure between PVI with and without condoms across most partner-type categories. Women in committed dating relationships were more likely to report their last PVI as very pleasurable if condoms were not used than women in these same relationships who had used condoms. Across relationship categories, men who did and did not use condoms did not differ in terms of their pleasure ratings. The results of this study suggest relationship context should be taken into account when assessing condom use experiences.     

Homonegativity in the Religious Dress History of the Marist Brothers, 1817–1840

This article presents a historical sociological case study of sexual oppression within the early nineteenth-century foundation period of a French Roman Catholic male religious order, the Marist Brothers, founded in 1817. The different sexualities of two rival founder figures, the priests Jean-Claude Courveille and Marcellin Champagnat, the former homosexual, the latter heterosexual, found expression in radically divergent conceptions of the religious habit. For Courveille, the costume design for the Brothers was ostentatious and stylish; for Champagnat, it was sober and clericalised. This archive-based investigation shows how Courveille's sexual orientation led to his fall from grace within the Church and the suppression of his sartorial self-expression. Champagnat, whose conventional dress rules prevailed, became a canonized saint. In the victory of the orthodox sacred dress code, the ideology of ‘clerical masculinism’ weaves its hegemonic power over the bodies of ‘men of the cloth’.     

Six impossible things before breakfast

The financial world is in meltdown—and it is the fault of modern financial theory. How did the theorists manage to believe so many impossible things for so long? William Janeway marvels and explains.     

First Impressions from the 2000 Census of China

The 2000 census of China has several notable innovations, including a sample long form containing detailed items on migration, housing, and employment. Preliminary data indicate rapid urbanization and continued rapid social change in the 1990s, and apparent success in the government's drive to curtail population growth. Although a post‐enumeration survey indicates that overall data quality is good, the rise of a mobile “floating population” and pressures of the birth planning program caused problems for the enumeration of migrants and infants. Data released to date have been silent on two important issues, fertility and rising sex ratios.     

Ambiguous Criteria Weights in AHP: Consequences and Solutions*

Two related streams of criticism of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) have not yet been satisfactorily resolved, although both date from the early 1980s. The first relates to ambiguity in the meaning of the relative importance of one criterion as compared to another. The second is concerned with reversals of rank alleged to be possible when new options are introduced in an AHP problem. Both proponents and critics of AHP agree that rank reversals occur, but disagree on the legitimacy of such reversals. This paper shows that there is a necessary correspondence between the manner in which criteria importances are interpreted and computed and the manner in which the weights of the options under each criterion are normalized. In general, if this relationship is ignored, incorrect weights are generated for options under consideration regardless of whether new options are added or deleted. A rank reversal on the addition of an option is merely symptomatic of this fact, and such reversals do not occur when the correspondence condition is met.     

Former Minister Zhang's discourse on SARS: Government's image restoration or destruction?

This study analyzes the image repair discourse by Chinese Health Minister Zhang Wenkang's discourse on SARS. The minister faced several accusations: the SARS outbreak was growing, the Chinese government had covered up the severity of this problem, the Chinese government ignored Taiwanese who suffered from SARS, and the Health Ministry provided information that was neither timely nor accurate. He employed several image repair strategies (denial, defeasibility, bolstering, minimization, differentiation, attack accuser, and corrective action). However, his messages were contradictory and apparently related on false information, so his efforts were unsuccessful and he was stripped of his office.     

Adolescent Deliberate Self‐Harm: Linkages to Emotion Regulation and Family Emotional Climate

Parents' responses to their children's emotional expressivity have been shown to significantly influence children's subsequent psychosocial functioning. This study hypothesized that adolescents' deliberate self‐harm (DSH) may be an outcome associated with poor emotion regulation as well as an invalidating family environment. The mediational role of specific emotion processes (i.e., poor awareness of emotion, difficulties expressing emotions) between family emotional environment and the frequency of DSH was examined with 131 psychiatrically hospitalized adolescents (M age=14.84 years, SD=1.75 years). Results indicated that adolescents who self‐injured reported that this behavior reduced their negative emotional states. Structural equation modeling provided support for the proposed model that family climate influences frequency of DSH through emotion regulation skills but the model held for girls only. A direct model effect was not supported. Emotion regulation partially mediated the relationship between family climate and DSH, and direct effects were also observed.     

Comparing the U.S. Decennial Census Coverage Estimates for Children from Demographic Analysis and Coverage Measurement Surveys

Following every U.S. decennial census since 1960, the U.S. Census Bureau has evaluated the completeness of coverage using two different methods. Demographic analysis (DA) compares the census counts to a set of independent population estimates to infer coverage differences by age, sex, and race. The survey-based approach (also called dual system estimation or DSE) provides coverage estimates based on matching data from a post-enumeration survey to census records. This paper reviews the fundamentals of the two methodological approaches and then initially examines the results of these two methods for the 2010 decennial census in terms of consistency and inconsistency for age groups. The authors find that the two methods produce relatively consistent results for all age groups, except for young children. Consequently, the paper focuses on the results for children. Results of the 1990, 2000, and 2010 decennial censuses are shown for the overall population in this age group and by demographic detail (age, race, and Hispanic origin). Among children, the DA and DSE results are most inconsistent for the population aged 0–4 and most consistent for ages 10–17. Results also show that DA and DSE are more consistent for Black than non-Black populations. The authors discuss possible explanations for the differences in the two methods for young children and conclude that the DSE approach may underestimate the net undercount of young children due to correlation bias.