Social Landscapes of the Inter‐Mountain West: A Comparison of ‘Old West’ and ‘New West’ Communities*

Abstract Rural communities have experienced dramatic demographic, social, and economic transformations over the past 30 years. Historically characterized by close links between natural resources and social, cultural, and economic structures, few of today's rural communities remain heavily dependent upon traditional extractive industries like ranching, forestry, and mining. New forms of development linked to natural and cultural amenities, including tourism and recreation, have evolved to sustain the link between community and resources. The Inter‐Mountain West region offers an excellent example of this distinction. Many of the region's rural communities have experienced substantial population growth resulting from the in‐migration of a new kind of rural resident. Their arrival, in a process some have associated with the emergence of a “New West,” has transformed rural places. However, amenity‐related social and economic structures have not occurred uniformly across space. This paper uses factor analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis to analyze demographic characteristics related to the “New West” phenomena in Inter‐Mountain West communities and the spatial patterns found in the degree of “New West‐ness” that each community exhibits.     

The determinants of a mother's choice of family structure

This study attempts to clarify the effect of welfare generosity on family structure while controlling for community mores, local labor market conditions, and other sociodemographic characteristics. In the existing AFDC (Aid to Families with Dependent Children) literature, these latter factors have been largely ignored. The empirical analysis is conducted by linking individual-level data from the 1987 National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) with information on county-level unemployment rates, state AFDC benefits, and proxies of community mores. In particular, the detailed nature of the NSFH data set provides a unique opportunity to investigate the social and economic determinants of cohabitation, among other family structures. Local labor market conditions are found to significantly affect marriage and single-motherhood, while community conservatism is found to discourage the least conventional family structure — cohabitation. Finally, this study raises some question about the effect of AFDC policy on marriage and related events. Specifically, AFDC's statistical impact is found to be sensitive to the inclusion of an explicit measure of community conservatism in the empirical model specification.     

Personal probabilities of probabilities

By definition, the subjective probability distribution of a random event is revealed by the (‘rational’) subject's choice between bets — a view expressed by F. Ramsey, B. De Finetti, L. J. Savage and traceable to E. Borel and, it can be argued, to T. Bayes. Since hypotheses are not observable events, no bet can be made, and paid off, on a hypothesis. The subjective probability distribution of hypotheses (or of a parameter, as in the current ‘Bayesian’ statistical literature) is therefore a figure of speech, an ‘as if’, justifiable in the limit. Given a long sequence of previous observations, the subjective posterior probabilities of events still to be observed are derived by using a mathematical expression that would approximate the subjective probability distribution of hypotheses, if these could be bet on. This position was taken by most, but not all, respondents to a ‘Round Robin’ initiated by J. Marschak after M. H. De-Groot's talk on Stopping Rules presented at the UCLA Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Mathematics in Behavioral Sciences. Other participants: K. Borch, H. Chernoif, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, T. S. Ferguson, G. Graves, K. Miyasawa, P. Randolph, L. J. Savage, R. Schlaifer, R. L. Winkler. Attention is also drawn to K. Borch's article in this issue.     

Strategic Choice of Variability in Multiround Contests and Contests with Handicaps

Variability can be an important strategic variable in a contest. We study optimal strategies involving choice of variability in contests with fixed and probabilistic targets, one-round and multiround contests, contests with and without handicaps, and situations where one contestant can modify variability as well as those in which all contestants have this opportunity. A contestant should maximize variability in a weak position (low mean, high handicap, or low previous performance) and minimize variability in a strong position. In some cases, only these extremes should be used. In other cases, intermediate levels of variability are optimal when the contestant's position is neither too weak nor too strong.     

Contracts, Individual Revenue and Performance

In some jobs individual workers have control over revenue, effort and productivity. These jobs include professional firms for law, medicine and consulting. They include personal services in areas from hair styling to taxi driving. The firm offers contracts that allow for a sharing of risks and rewards. These incentives include a split of output between the firm and worker and employee ownership. For U.S. real estate agents, a choice is available between splitting revenue with the firm or retaining 100?% above a fixed prepaid minimum. These are equity and sequential debt contracts. Under the sequential debt contract, effort increases but output per hour declines. Separately, agents increase effort and productivity if offered ownership in the firm, effectively a claim on others?? performance.     

Amenities or disamenities? Estimating the impacts of extreme heat and wildfire on domestic US migration

Population and Environment - For decades, Americans have generally been moving away from the Northeast and the Midwest toward the South and West. Mountainous and desert areas in the West and...     

Social Costs of Gambling in the Czech Republic 2012

Evidence about social costs of gambling is scarce and the methodology for their calculation has been a subject to strong criticism. We aimed to estimate social costs of gambling in the Czech Republic 2012. This retrospective, prevalence based cost of illness study builds on the revised methodology of Australian Productivity Commission. Social costs of gambling were estimated by combining epidemiological and economic data. Prevalence data on negative consequences of gambling were taken from existing national epidemiological studies. Economic data were taken from various national and international sources. Consequences of problem and pathological gambling only were taken into account. In 2012, the social costs of gambling in the Czech Republic were estimated to range between 541,619 and 619,608 thousands EUR. While personal and family costs accounted for 63% of all social costs, direct medical costs were estimated to range from 0.25 to 0.28% of all social costs only. This is the first study which estimates social costs of gambling in any of the Central and East European countries. It builds upon the solid evidence about prevalence of gambling related problems in the Czech Republic and satisfactorily reliable economic data. However, there is a number of limitations stemming from assumptions that were made, which suggest that the methodology for the calculation of the social costs of gambling needs further development.     

Differential Privacy and the Accuracy of County-Level Net Migration Estimates

Population Research and Policy Review - Each decade since the 1950s, demographers have generated high-quality net migration estimates by age, sex, and race for US counties using decennial census...     

Worker Behavior on the Job: A Multi-Methods Study of Labor Cooperation with Management

In the 2000s, the leadership of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) called for labor-management cooperation from its rank and file members in response to concerns about increasing competition from the nonunionized electrical contracting sector. The IBEW??s leadership implored members to cooperate by altering their behavior on the job, thereby modifying the effort bargain between workers and management. To date, this type of cooperation with management has been little studied. Using qualitative and quantitative data collected from one Local of the IBEW, this study analyzes how workers responded to the leadership??s call and the factors guiding this behavior. Among the findings, cooperative behavior on the job is found to be strongly associated with workers?? attitudes, as measured by their commitments to their occupation and to their union.