德国的忧郁和中国的彷徨:叶圣陶的小说《倪焕之》

文章从现代性的角度 ,解读叶圣陶小说《倪焕之》。这个解读不仅指出小说主人公倪焕之 ,在面对中国社会向现代性转换中所承受的不能解脱的彷徨 ,而且揭示出现代性在根本上改变了中国作为一个诗歌古国的内在基础——民族文化的整体感。在此基础上 ,文章探讨了 2 0世纪中国小说取代诗歌、成为主导文学形式的社会文化根源。文章把它的研究放在中国和德国对比的层次上 ,指出面对现代性转换 ,两者历史情况不同 ,但又具有同样的基本困境。     

Sektion Kultursoziologie Jahresbericht 2004

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Estimating the error variance in nonparametric regression by a covariate-matched u-statistic

For nonparametric regression models with fixed and random design, two classes of estimators for the error variance have been introduced: second sample moments based on residuals from a nonparametric fit, and difference-based estimators. The former are asymptotically optimal but require estimating the regression function; the latter are simple but have larger asymptotic variance. For nonparametric regression models with random covariates, we introduce a class of estimators for the error variance that are related to difference-based estimators: covariate-matched U-statistics. We give conditions on the random weights involved that lead to asymptotically optimal estimators of the error variance. Our explicit construction of the weights uses a kernel estimator for the covariate density.     

Sektion Familiensoziologie Bericht über die Arbeit der Sektion in 2003 und 2004

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On the appropriateness of inappropriate VaR models

Summary The Value-at-Risk calculation reduces the dimensionality of the risk factor space. The main reasons for such simplifications are, e. g., technical efficiency, the logic and statistical appropriateness of the model. In Chapter 2 we present three simple mappings: the mapping on the market index, the principal components models and the model with equally correlated risk factors. The comparison of these models in Chapter 3 is based on the literature on the verification of weather forecasts (Murphy and Winkler, 1992; Murphy, 1997). Some considerations on the quantitative analysis are presented in the fourth chapter. In the last chapter, we present empirical analysis of the DAX data using XploRe. We acknowlege the support of Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 649 “Economic Risk”, MSM 0021620839 and 1K04018     

Determinants of obesity: The case of Germany

Obesity now has the rank of a global epidemic, but finds its severest expression in the economically advanced parts of the world. This study offers an interdisciplinary analysis of obesity in Germany, including socio-economic factors. In comparison to related studies, it uses a continuous BMI variable as well as an improved empirical design. The coefficient of the term for sport activities is significantly negative, and the coefficient for the age terms are significantly positive. The results for the income variable are ambiguous. Cigarette consumption does not indicate negative relationships with individual BMI-levels. No evidence was found for systematic differences in BMI between the eastern and western regions in reunified Germany.     

Communication without sender or receiver? On virtualisation in the information process

A communication process can be described in terms of a sender transmitting information to a receiver. What happens if one of the two subject roles in this process is virtualised, i.e. substituted by a machine? Is it still appropriate to refer to this as an information transfer even if its source or target is missing? Can information originate from an unknown sender or be transmitted to a (completely) unknown receiver? Before examining these questions and answering them, one has to clarify what is understood by information. As it turns out, different interpretations of this term lead to considerably different answers to the initially raised questions. We consider these questions particularly important since the continuing dissemination of so called information and virtualisation technologies changes the human communication processes fundamentally. These changes are part of the ongoing formation of an information society and may eventually lead to the formation of a new image of man.