A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty‐First Century

I propose that the primary goal of twenty‐first‐century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth‐century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement‐level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a “demographic dividend” from the changing age structure; and filling the “unmet need” for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.     

What difference do alternative immigration and integration levels make to Western Europe?

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of integration describe the transition intensities from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden.La population d'Europe occidentale (CE et AELE) est décomposée en trois sous-populations: les natifs, les immigrants originaires d'Europe de l'Est, et les immigrants originaires du reste du monde. Les populations non-natives augmentent sous l'effet de divers niveaux d'immigration tandis que les intensités de passage d'une catégorie non-native à native sont décrites par différents niveaux d' intégration. Des projections de population jusqu'en 2050 dans ces divers états, basées sur six scénarios, montrent que: (1) la population totale de l'Europe occidentale commencerait à baisser après 2010, dans le cas d'un arrêt de l'immigration; (2) le taux d' intégration influencerait la taille future de la population non-européenne beaucoup plus fortement que le niveau d'immigration; (3) dans le long terme, les Européens de l'Est serait en nombre très réduit; (4) la population d'Europe occidentale connaîtra un vieillissement important de sa population, quelque soit ses flux d'immigrants; et (5) dans le court et le moyen terme les immigrants contribueraient à alléger le poids des retraites.     

Restrictive Control and Information Pathologies in Organizations

Although the relation of power to knowledge is an often discussed theme, a psychological and sociological scrutiny of the issue is lacking. A new conceptual and theoretical approach to this issue is presented here that distingushes between restrictive and promotive control. Restrictive control is a form of power exertion in which one actor pushes his wishes through against the interests of another actor. In contrast, if an actor influences the other in line with his or her interests, this is called promotive control. Information pathologies, i.e., avoidable failures of distributed information processing, are introduced as an inverse measure for the quality and quantity of knowledge production. It is hypothesized that restrictive control has negative consequences for the production of new or better knowledge, because it induces information pathologies that in turn lower the effectiveness of joint action. These two hypotheses are tested in a study on 21 successful and 21 unsuccessful innovations with a dual qualitative and quantitative approach. The interpretive analysis of interviews with the main actors of each innovation case as well as the statistical analysis of questionnaire responses by the same actors strongly corroborate both hypotheses. Methodological problems, theoretical perspectives, and practical consequences are discussed.     

Subjective Attendants of Unification and Transformation in Germany

The article is concentrated on negative aspects of quality of life, mainly anomie. Anomic attitudes have been thematized since the beginning of sociological analysis as phenomena accompanying rapid social change and economic crises. It is shown to what extent the processes of unification and transformation in Germany after 1990 are accompanied by a fragile perceived quality of life. That such a problematic has become virulent at the beginning of the nineteen-nineties indicates the fact that the unification of Germany and the transformation process of the former socialist states are undoubtedly part of the great rapid societal changes of the past decades.     

The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment

This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi‐state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.     

Modelling price paths in on-line auctions: smoothing sparse and unevenly sampled curves by using semiparametric mixed models

Summary.  On-line auctions pose many challenges for the empirical researcher, one of which is the effective and reliable modelling of price paths. We propose a novel way of modelling price paths in eBay's on-line auctions by using functional data analysis. One of the practical challenges is that the functional objects are sampled only very sparsely and unevenly. Most approaches rely on smoothing to recover the underlying functional object from the data, which can be difficult if the data are irregularly distributed. We present a new approach that can overcome this challenge. The approach is based on the ideas of mixed models. Specifically, we propose a semiparametric mixed model with boosting to recover the functional object. As well as being able to handle sparse and unevenly distributed data, the model also results in conceptually more meaningful functional objects. In particular, we motivate our method within the framework of eBay's on-line auctions. On-line auctions produce monotonic increasing price curves that are often correlated across auctions. The semiparametric mixed model accounts for this correlation in a parsimonious way. It also manages to capture the underlying monotonic trend in the data without imposing model constraints. Our application shows that the resulting functional objects are conceptually more appealing. Moreover, when used to forecast the outcome of an on-line auction, our approach also results in more accurate price predictions compared with standard approaches. We illustrate our model on a set of 183 closed auctions for Palm M515 personal digital assistants.     

Implementierung von Coaching für Schulleitung und Schulaufsicht

Implementation of coaching for principals and supervisory school authorityGerman schools will have to improve the quality of their work to be able to compete on an international level. School development is also personnel development. Establishing professionalism of school executives (among others by coaching) plays a major role in this matter. First of all the author describes the implementation process of internal coaching for principals and thereafter for officers of the supervisory school authority. In doing so, he also points out problems that can arise during such a project. The evaluations of surveys prove the acceptance and importance of coaching for this target group. Finally, possible future coaching offers for school executives are addressed.     

Illegitimate tasks as a source of work stress

Illegitimate tasks represent a task-level stressor derived from role and justice theories within the framework of “Stress-as–Offense-to-Self” (SOS; Semmer, Jacobshagen, Meier, & Elfering, 2007). Tasks are illegitimate if they violate norms about what an employee can properly be expected to do, because they are perceived as unnecessary or unreasonable; they imply a threat to one's professional identity. We report three studies testing associations between illegitimate tasks and well-being/strain. In two cross-sectional studies, illegitimate tasks predicted low self-esteem, feelings of resentment towards one's organization and burnout, controlling for role conflict, distributive injustice and social stressors in Study 1, and for distributive and procedural/interactional justice in Study 2. In Study 3, illegitimate tasks predicted two strain variables (feelings of resentment towards one's organization and irritability) over a period of two months, controlling for initial values of strain. Results confirm the unique contribution of illegitimate tasks to well-being and strain, beyond the effects of other predictors. Moreover, Study 3 demonstrated that illegitimate tasks predicted strain, rather than being predicted by it. We therefore conclude that illegitimate tasks represent an aspect of job design that deserves more attention, both in research and in decisions about task assignments.