铁路与华北内陆传统工商业市镇的兴衰(1905-1937)

明清时期,华北内陆地区涌现了数量众多的工商业市镇,其发展则与交通运输密切相关。近代以来,铁路运输的作用日益凸显。作者以1905—1937年间驻马店、漯河、道口、清化、周村等重要市镇为例,通过考察铁路与其工商业发展、人口增长及街市扩展等方面的关联作用,阐明铁路对华北内陆传统工商业市镇发展及华北区域社会近代化进程的重要影响。     

Australia’s national urban policy: The smart cities agenda in perspective

The Australian Government's attempts at national urban policy have been sporadic and inconsistent, under the constraints of constitutional, financial, ideological and political factors. This paper concerns the recent resurgence of national urban policy under the rubric of “smart cities” adopted by the Turnbull Government and carried on by the incumbent Morrison Government. It investigates how this round of smart cities agenda articulates with Australia's political tradition of national urban policy to seek continuity and change, through comparing historical policies, unpacking major smart cities programmes, identifying explanatory factors and critically commenting on its innovation and legacy. Drawing upon these analyses, this paper argues that understanding the smart cities agenda needs to move beyond the political, ideological “to-and-fro” pendulum to national urban policy observed in history. Rather, it resonates with a globalised policy norm established upon the city-based global integration and competition, driven by an imperative of transitioning to a knowledge economy and pursuing innovation capacity. It is too early to judge whether the smart cities agenda will bring changes to Australian cities in the way it wishes, since it involves long-term infrastructure investment and urban development projects. However, a comprehensive and consistent national urban policy to govern the Australian system of cities and towns has not been established yet.     

Cox regression of clustered event times with covariates missing not at random

Motivated by a recent tuberculosis (TB) study, this paper is concerned with covariates missing not at random (MNAR) and models the potential intracluster correlation by a frailty. We consider the regression analysis of right‐censored event times from clustered subjects under a Cox proportional hazards frailty model and present the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (SPMLE) of the model parameters. An easy‐to‐implement pseudo‐SPMLE is then proposed to accommodate more realistic situations using readily available supplementary information on the missing covariates. Algorithms are provided to compute the estimators and their consistent variance estimators. We demonstrate that both the SPMLE and the pseudo‐SPMLE are consistent and asymptotically normal by the arguments based on the theory of modern empirical processes. The proposed approach is examined numerically via simulation and illustrated with an analysis of the motivating TB study data.     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

Sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment and probable Alzheimer’s disease as predicted by hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities

This study examined biological sex differences in the development of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable Alzheimer’s disease (AD) development as predicted by changes in the hippocampus or white matter hyperintensities. A secondary data analysis of the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set was conducted. We selected samples of participants with normal cognition at baseline who progressed to MCI (n = 483) and those who progressed to probable AD (n = 211) to determine if hippocampal volume or white matter hyperintensities (WMH) at baseline predicted progression to probable AD or MCI and whether the rate of progression differed between men and women. The survival analyses indicated that changes in hippocampal volumes affected the progression to probable AD (HR = 0.535, 95% CI [0.300–0.953]) only among women. White men had an increased rate of progression to AD (HR = 4.396, CI [1.012–19.08]; HR = 4.665, 95% CI [1.072–20.29]) compared to men in other race and ethnic groups. Among women, increases in hippocampal volume ratio led to decreased rates of progressing to MCI (HR = 0.386, 95% CI [0.166–0.901]). Increased WMH among men led to faster progression to MCI (HR = 1.048. 95% CI [1.011–1.086]). Women and men who were older at baseline were more likely to progress to MCI. In addition, results from longitudinal analyses showed that women with a higher CDR global score, older age at baseline, or more disinhibition symptoms experienced higher odds of MCI development. Changes in hippocampal volumes affect the progression to or odds of probable AD (and MCI) more so among women than men, while changes in WMH affected the progression to MCI only among men.     

中国农村劳动力转移的研究:一个文献综述

在实行改革开放之前,中国曾经是一个人口流动率极低的国家。而自20世纪80年代中期以来,中国的农村劳动力开始大规模向当地乡镇企业以及异地转移。这种大规模的农村劳动力转移已经吸引了社会各界的关注,并成为许多学者研究和讨论的热门话题。关于中国农村劳动力转移的研究已经非常丰富,本文试图从劳动力转移的历史背景、转移状况、影响转移的因素以及转移所带来的影响等角度,对中国农村劳动力转移的研究进行系统的全面回顾,并指出未来需要进一步深入研究的问题。     

论"均势"的基本含义

本文为界定“均势”建立了一个区别层次且各层次之间相互关联的分析框架。在该框架内,阐释了均势的基本含义:国际体系层次的均势秩序、国家层次的均势外交和介乎二者之间的均势机制。文章对均势秩序的形态作了区分,重点区别了均势与霸权;对均势外交的原则作了深入剖析,重点分析了联盟战略;对均势机制的历史脉络作了梳理,重点揭示了其存在的延续性。最后,提出了把均势与中国的和平崛起相联系的问题,以进一步强调研究均势的现实意义。在研究中,作者主要运用了现实主义(包括传统现实主义、结构现实主义和进攻性现实主义)的视角,同时又从新自由主义的国际机制理论中获取了重要借鉴。     

市场化转型下的住房不平等——基于CGSS2006调查数据

基于CGSS2006调查数据,运用多层线性模型分析方法,揭示了市场化改革对住房不平等程度,以及住房资源分配机制的影响作用。研究表明,在地区层面,地区市场化的推进虽然有效提高居民的住房水平,但在一定时期内也拉大住房资源分配的贫富差距,地区市场化水平与住房不平等程度之间存在倒“U”型曲线关系;在个体层面,体制内外职工的住房差异已不显著,但政治精英在住房资源的占有上更具优势。