A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

A New Methodology for Before–After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data

The widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before–after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method. A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application. Subsequently, the SARE model is developed in a case study to evaluate the safety effectiveness of a recent red‐light‐running photo enforcement program in New Jersey. As demonstrated in the simulation and the case study, the survival analysis can provide valid estimates using only data from treated sites, and thus its results will not be affected by the selection of defective or insufficient reference sites. In addition, the proposed approach can take into account the censored data generated due to the transition from the before period to the after period, which has not been previously explored in the literature. Using individual crashes as units of analysis, survival analysis can incorporate longitudinal covariates such as the traffic volume and weather variation, and thus can explicitly account for the potential temporal heterogeneity.     

国有企业系统变革战略思索

本文从分析国有企业急需解决的现实问题入手,提出了新形势下系统变革的战略观点,集中研究和探讨了当前我国国企管理发展新变革的十大战略思维,进而提出了国企相应采取的一系列策略与措施。     

信息不对称、流动性与股权结构——基于深圳证券市场的实证研究

以金融市场微观结构视角对股权结构进行研究的趋势正在兴起,本文从金融市场微观结构层面考察了在信息不对称影响下股权结构与流动性的关系,通过对在深圳证券交易所上市的2004年和2007年的样本公司研究发现,股权结构变量在2004年主要作用于信息成本来影响流动性水平,而2007年则主要通过改变交易成本来影响流动性水平.股改前的2004年,直接控股股东持股对交易成本无显著影响,而在股改后的2007年则显著增加了交易成本.随着基金的发展壮大,基金持股对流动性的影响逐渐显现,并一定程度上导致交易成本的增加.代表股权集中度的大股东个数则同时增加了信息成本和交易成本,损害了流动性水平.     

无偏好市场下制造/再制造系统最优生产决策

尽管再制造可以重新获得产品的附加价值,但是再制造产品和新产品具有一定的替代性,厂商在各期应该采用何种生产策略?本文选取单一制造厂商,首先讨论无偏好市场下两期再制造最优生产策略,建立厂商利润最大化的经济优化模型;然后给出了再制造成本节约临界值,以便厂商在不同的再制造成本区域内采取合适的价格和产量决策策略;进而将模型拓展,研究无限期的最优产量和定价策略。由于不同产品的再制造成本节约s的比例并不相同,本文通过优化所得的结论进行数据模拟,研究产品回收率和降级率对s*的影响,s对厂商的产量、定价决策及利润的影响,进而分析降级率对产量和价格的影响,为厂商制定产品设计、生产和回收决策提供依据。     

政治联系、银行贷款与公司价值

以中国民营上市公司为样本,考察政治联系以及制度环境差异对民营企业获取银行贷款的影响,并进一步分析银行贷款对企业价值和社会资源配置效率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)民营企业的政治联系影响了银行的放贷决策,与政府建立政治联系的民营企业可以获取更多的银行贷款;(2)制度环境越差的地区,政治联系越有助于民营企业获取银行融资便利,构建政治联系是民营企业克服市场制度缺陷的一种非正式替代机制;(3)建立政治联系的民营企业,其背负的银行债务促进了企业价值的提升,能够发挥一定的债务治理作用,政治联系为企业带来的银行资金是有效率的资源配置。本研究为加深理解政治联系对公司价值和社会资源配置效率的影响提供了一个有意义的视角。     

基于不同动机的联盟控制方式选择及其对联盟绩效的影响——中国企业联盟的实证分析

企业为了不同的目标建立战略联盟,而有效的联盟控制是实现目标的重要保证.本文从战略联盟的动机出发,提出实现不同联盟目标所应采取的控制方式,并研究了不同的联盟控制方式对联盟绩效的影响.通过企业间联盟的数据对本文相关假说进行了实证检验.     

The Impact of Forecast Errors on Early Order Commitment in a Supply Chain*

Supply chain partnership involves mutual commitments among participating firms. One example is early order commitment, wherein a retailer commits to purchase a fixed‐order quantity and delivery time from a supplier before the real need takes place. This paper explores the value of practicing early order commitment in the supply chain. We investigate the complex interactions between early order commitment and forecast errors by simulating a supply chain with one capacitated supplier and multiple retailers under demand uncertainty. We found that practicing early order commitment can generate significant savings in the supply chain, but the benefits are only valid within a range of order commitment periods. Different components of forecast errors have different cost implications to the supplier and the retailers. The presence of trend in the demand increases the total supply chain cost, but makes early order commitment more appealing. The more retailers sharing the same supplier, the more valuable for the supply chain to practice early order commitment. Except in cases where little capacity cushion is available, our findings are relatively consistent in the environments where cost structure, number of retailers, capacity utilization, and capacity policy are varied.     

金融创新对货币需求影响的模型分析

本文将金融创新作为投资项目,假设了一个包含金融创新过程的初始成本。并将其导入Lucas现金预付款模型,然后利用这一拓展型模型分析了技术创新、利率变化、经济增长以及金融创新等因素对货币需求变化的影响。     

论毛泽东早期民主教育思想

毛泽东早期民主教育思想是毛泽东教育思想体系中的一个重要组成部分,是理解和把握毛泽东思想体系核心内容的关键之一.为了理解毛泽东早期民主思想的发展脉络,把握毛泽东早期民主教育思想的实质,通过分析毛泽东早期民主教育思想的内涵和特点来阐述毛泽东早期民主教育思想,对于推动当代青少年的素质教育的发展和教育教学方法意义重大.